Super Bowl 58 Pregame Thread: 49ers versus Chiefs

[Dingleberry]

Any reason why the line hasn't moved yet @Lord Dingleberry the public is heavy on the Chefs and its been stuck at 2 pts

The public doesn't move lines. The pros do.

(-2.0) is a safe spot for Vegas right now. The pros have hit SF for big bucks. If Vegas moved the line to (-3.0), the pros would hammer the Chiefs and put Vegas in a dangerous spot of losing to the pros and public.

If the pros were on the Chiefs too, this line would have flipped to Chiefs slightly favored. This tells me Vegas is expecting a 49ers close win as the most likely outcome but barely. It's virtually a coin flip.

There are certainly some pros on the Chiefs, but most of the money is on SF. If it was unanimously pros on SF, you would have seen (-3.0) to even things out a bit.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The public doesn't move lines. The pros do.

(-2.0) is a safe spot for Vegas right now. The pros have hit SF for big bucks. If Vegas moved the line to (-3.0), the pros would hammer the Chiefs and put Vegas in a dangerous spot of losing to the pros and public.

If the pros were on the Chiefs too, this line would have flipped to Chiefs slightly favored. This tells me Vegas is expecting a 49ers close win as the most likely outcome but barely. It's virtually a coin flip.

There are certainly some pros on the Chiefs, but most of the money is on SF. If it was unanimously pros on SF, you would have seen (-3.0) to even things out a bit.

Good breakdown.

Would also add that oddsmakers are ultimately going to make lines from actual probability and not just what they expect to get equal betting. They may adjust the line a little (a point or so) to balance the betting when the public is high on a team to hedge short term loss. However, most betting lines are pretty highly unbalanced with bettors.

Sportsbooks don’t split winners/losers down the middle on every game. They win because over a long period of time, their actual probabilities are accurate, and along with the vig, this makes them profitable.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

ESPN trying to spin this with propaganda that the playoffs are “inconclusive” and a “small sample size.”

 

[LordSensei1958]

"I don't like the conversation": Troy Aikman ends Tom Brady-Patrick Mahomes GOAT debate with blunt message for Chiefs QB

Patrick Mahomes had an unforgettable start to his NFL career.

www.sportskeeda.com

 

[Kontradiction]

No wonder why Kermit runs like he needs to poop his Johnson always getting bit when he getting throat

That’s actually poetic, dude.

 

[PM15]

View: https://twitter.com/MahomeSZN/status/1756011763923857894?t=mIJ8XXhaNhtNYGDGbpqdJQ&s=19


These are beautiful. Chiefs by double digits you can't wear these if you don't win.

 

[LordSensei1958]

View: https://twitter.com/MahomeSZN/status/1756011763923857894?t=mIJ8XXhaNhtNYGDGbpqdJQ&s=19


These are beautiful. Chiefs by double digits you can't wear these if you don't win.

Boy, those are some butt ugly cleats.

 

[PM15]

Boy, those are some butt ugly cleats.

Those are the cleats of a future three time Superbowl Champion to me

 

[Lord Guts]

Those are the cleats of a future three time Superbowl Champion to me

Looks like Jackson designed them

 

[LordSensei1958]

Those are the cleats of a future three time Superbowl Champion to me

Maybe when he finishes his career he'll have 3.

 

[PM15]

Looks like Jackson designed them

Oh c'mon I know you don't believe that. These are

 

[LordSensei1958]

Looks like Jackson designed them

With some help from his father.

 

[PM15]

Maybe when he finishes his career he'll have 3.

He will finish with 8.

 

[Lord Guts]

Oh c'mon I know you don't believe that. These are

Lol not much of an Adidas guy
Under Armour or Nike for me

 

[LordSensei1958]

He will finish with 8.

Can I buy some pot from you?

 

[PM15]

View: https://twitter.com/LanceTHESPOKEN/status/1755969495506583686?t=95nDR1tmyRz-JVPby58ksw&s=19


I don't disagree with Lance on much but here I am getting nervous. I'd rather be slighted

 

[PM15]

Lol not much of an Adidas guy
Under Armour or Nike for me

I think Under Armour is the better of the three. But my GOAT is sponsored by Adidas so give me Adidas

 

[PM15]

Can I buy some pot from you?

I'm finishing my blunt right now actually.

 

[LordSensei1958]

I'm finishing my blunt right now actually.

We have something in common then. I just finished a bowl.

 

[CM Punk]

im not super into anime but i really liked Deathnote and Full Metal Alchemist

Dove into it last night and Guts wasn't kidding. Was hooked I hope L wins