MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024

[Kontradiction]

Week 5 Predictions

Its finally go time! The picker has shit out all the rust and is ready to regain its place a top the all see'er of the future, prognosticators of all prognogsticators....get the fuck out of here Phil...there's no room for rodents on this mountain!

Well, it improved from a dismal 4-12 in week 3 to a more respectable 7-9 ATS in week 4. Hopefully we'll see the same steady improvement in week 5, cause the shit just got real. I will make a separate post in reference to my new test models and if there is any interest me making those public.

One house keeping issue. I have not done this in previous years, but I removed the +2 HFA math from the international game. I don't believe traveling 5-10 hours across the pond to play in front of a stadium full of drunken soccer fans wearing team gear for all teams and maybe even a New England 2007 Super Bowl champions hat and T-shirt, constitutes an advantage for any team much less home field. Interested in your opinions on this.

Also, not sure why the website I pull the schedule from had Raiders game as a 1pm game. I updated the time to 4pm and left it where it was so I didn't have to rearrange the games.

With out further ado...lets get to it!

Shockers
Er...don't really see any shockers or surprises based on the totality of the results of the first four weeks. Maybe the Saints over the Chiefs, Bengals over the Ravens? Meh

View attachment 11895

Hammered Tampa Bay tomorrow night.

 

[mgcolby]

Hammered Tampa Bay tomorrow night.

All three models are about the same on this game. All have Tampa and the Over as the plays.

 

[Lord Guts]

 

[Deus Irae]

The new model(s), I did not go back and run it against previous data because there would be inaccuracies that would take a lot of manual work or some hellacious excel build out to correct the data, that I don't feel like doing. It did show some promise albeit only after one week vs the orginal picker handicapped by only having 3 weeks of data. I will post last week's record at the end of the post.

I would like to explain the new model a little further than I did above. I won't get into the new data set that I am using, but I will say the plan is to use the new data set's season average throughout the year which will obviously matchup with the current datasets this week. But moving forward it will differ from the current data set four game average. Its two-fold, first I'm lazy and the way the data is pulled in it comes as the season average.

Second, while I started to formulate out a way in excel to get the four-game average, I thought why not use the season average to account for things such as a team maybe going through their tough or easy stretch of their schedule, maybe they played a string of sucky defenses or great offenses etc... After thinking about this, I felt using the season average of this data set against the four-game average of the original model could mathematically add some overall season performance against recent performance.

Question is: Do you guys want to see the weekly picks from all three along with the results or just see how the models stack up each week?

Week 4 Results

View attachment 11897

It's a thread specifically about the play, so let's see it all, if it's not too much more work.

 

[The Picker]

View attachment 11933

Yep I went from $1250 to just shy of $5k between opening week of college and opening week of NFL. Took $2250 back out.....fast forward two terrible weekends and put $750 back in. Keep reminding myself I'm $300 in the black...

 

[The Picker]

It's a thread specifically about the play, so let's see it all, if it's not too much more work.

Its not too much work already do it each week. Just not sure if the shit is formitable at this point. The picker in its original form has been doing its thing since 2012 or 13 can't remember. This shit has a week. But fuck it.

Just to clarify:

I highlighted the picks of each model ATS green. You'll notice the "Spread" is showing for each game, but in the favor of the Original Pickers pick. OU is self-explanatory as well. Green for over red for under, figured this gives an easy to identify visual of the games that are in common.

Now if you are like me and think Ooh whichever they agree on must be the play, sorry to say after one week that didn't pan out. For plays they had in common the record is below. Now this week they have a bunch of games in common I'm not sure that will be consistent after a week or two.

Common games record week 4:

ATS: 3-3
ML: 5-5
OU: 5-7

 

[Lord Guts]

I hope the picker gets the Chiefs game right
It loves the Saints

 

[Kontradiction]

I hope the picker gets the Chiefs game right
It loves the Saints

ChatGPT agrees.

 

[Lord Guts]

ChatGPT agrees.

View attachment 11946

We are fucked then
ChatGPT has lost me alot of units

 

[mgcolby]

We are fucked then
ChatGPT has lost me alot of units

I use it for a lot of things but never once thought about asking it for gambling advice

 

[Lord Guts]

I use it for a lot of things but never once thought about asking it for gambling advice

We degenerates dawg

 

[mgcolby]

I am running the new models through chatgpt based on last year's data and results. I think I have it understanding everything now after a few go rounds. Now I'm waiting for it to spit out the results, it's taking a while. I'll post it when I get the answer.

 

[Kontradiction]

I am running the new models through chatgpt based on last year's data and results. I think I have it understanding everything now after a few go rounds. Now I'm waiting for it to spit out the results, it's taking a while. I'll post it when I get the answer.

We will have some absolute locks.

 

[The Picker]

Need my dinglebucks bitches!

 

[Deus Irae]

Need my dinglebucks bitches!

@Dingleberry, see above

 

[mgcolby]

We could do a beat the picker contest too. See if you beat the picker ATS.

 

[The Picker]

Thanks for the dinglebucks @Dingleberry my picks are in but being a little lickered up I took the over in the Buffalo game instead of the Bills -1.

 

[Lord Guts]

How did we do @mgcolby

 

[The Picker]

How did we do @mgcolby

Its in the shitter. Some bad beats. Cincy missing a FG in OT, New England not getting a TD for some rule I never heard of, Dallas scoring late etc...

So far:
Original:
ATS: 4-9
SU: 5-8
O/U: 9-4



Model 1:
ATS: 5-8
SU: 6-7
O/U: 6-7

Model 2
ATS: 5-8
SU: 6-7
O/U: 7-6

 

[Kontradiction]

Its in the shitter. Some bad beats. Cincy missing a FG in OT, New England not getting a TD for some rule I never heard of, Dallas scoring late etc...

So far:
Original:
ATS: 4-9
SU: 5-8
O/U: 9-4

View attachment 12001

Model 1:
ATS: 5-8
SU: 6-7
O/U: 6-7

Model 2
ATS: 5-8
SU: 6-7
O/U: 7-6

Can I borrow some money?