MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024
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Week 6 Predictions
Apologies for the tardiness. Traveling. So getting this up here as soon as I could.
I just noticed a descrepency in how the picker is showing the predicted score. For some reason its showing the "wrong" spread. The Live spread is showing how it is supposed to. So for now, look to the live spread and spread dif columns to alleviate any confusion. They are showing correctly in line with the team the picker is picking. I'll look at it when I get home and have it corrected next week.
Here is the Combo view of the three models:
Apologies for the tardiness. Traveling. So getting this up here as soon as I could.
I just noticed a descrepency in how the picker is showing the predicted score. For some reason its showing the "wrong" spread. The Live spread is showing how it is supposed to. So for now, look to the live spread and spread dif columns to alleviate any confusion. They are showing correctly in line with the team the picker is picking. I'll look at it when I get home and have it corrected next week.
Here is the Combo view of the three models:
The Picker
Member
My picks are in. I did miss Thursday's game which would of been a loss so do what you would like with that Dingle. I would say for accuracy you should deduct my account $10,989.
The Picker
Member
Week 6 Results
Well, the shit stomping continues, it has taken its fair share of bad beats over the past two weeks, but the picker doesn't make excuses. Can't remember a worse start.
Well, the shit stomping continues, it has taken its fair share of bad beats over the past two weeks, but the picker doesn't make excuses. Can't remember a worse start.
The Picker
Member
Week 7 Predictions
Before I get into the games a quick housekeeping update:
1. Fixed the issue with the wrong predicted spread displaying. I have a conditional formatting rule that is supposed to blank out the cell that is does not coincide with the pick. I corrected that everything is the way it should be.
2. I removed a decimal point to give what I think is a cleaner look. I initially removed the decimals all together for the predicted score, but the rounding up and down could be confusing I felt. So I decided to keep the one decimal.
3. I also changed the font of the team names and bolded the pickers play in that game. Thinking it will help folks identify the play quicker.
4. Remember the original model is based solely on the last four games. The new model has an additional dataset that is the average for the season. Now every team in the league has played at least five games, so, I think this week is the week we will really start to see what kind of difference that makes and if it improves the picker or not.
To the games:
TNF
Den/NO: 29 points from Denver? Denver is averaging nearly 22 ppg over the last 4 while New Orleans is allowing over 450 yards per game on defense and a eye opening 29.5 points. Denver's defense is playing stifling defense allowing 287 yards per game along with 14.2 ppg. I expect NO's offense to struggle against this defense and Denver to have some room to move the ball on offense. The biggest question is can Denver put it in the End Zone? They are converting at a rate of 50% in the red zone 9 TDs in 18 trips while NO's is allowing teams to score 38% of the time. On the flip side, NO's offense has been excellent in the red zone converting 71% while Denver's defense has been equally as impressive allowing just 4 TDs in 12 trips allowed. I see a closer game than the picker does, but I think my play would be the over.
Homers
NE/JAX: Ah, even the picker is on the Drake Maye wagon, at least with a little boost from the oddsmakers. I personally can't trust this Pats team to play disciplined enough to beat anyone right now. I also think in this game Jacksonville does have a homefield advantage, even though the picker treated this as a neutral field, given the fact they have been in London for two weeks now. And that is not whining, I do believe they deserve it. Regardless of what you may think of the international games Jacksonville stepped up to play multiple games over there. So, it is what it is. I think I agree, the Pats keep this game close or maybe the ineptness of both teams, at this point, will keep it close. With that said I agree with the picker rolling with the Pats and the points here.
Head Scratchers
NYG/PHI: I do not agree here, so lets dig into the numbers on this one. First the offensive numbers are nearly identical between the two teams:
Yards/Points
NYG: 343/18
PHI: 356/18
As you can see both teams are moving the football up and down the field but simply struggle to put points on the scoreboard. Both teams are 8 of 18 in the red zone conversions. The Giants have a bit of an edge on defense allowing 287/18 to Philly's 353/20.8 which accounts for point differential in this weeks pick. Another interesting note is that both defenses have allowed 17 trips to the red zone and allowed 7 TDs. Philly comes into this game -4 in the turnover battle giving the ball away 5 times in the past four games while the Giants are -1 also giving it away 5 times. Both teams have played tough schedules with SoS at or above 500%. This is a no play for me, but if forced to make a play I would take the under.
Ten/BUF: I won't deep dive into the numbers on this one, but essentially Buffalo's defense is what is pushing the picker towards Tennessee. Buffalo's defense is allowing 371 yards and 22 ppg and Tennessee's offense has been pretty efficient gaining 255 yards and scoring 19.8 ppg. However, a lot of Tennessee's numbers are skewed by the Miami win. Me personally, I disagree with the picker here. But again, some of the numbers support it, Tennessee's average loss is by 8.25 points with three of the four by a TD or less. The one outlier is losing by 16 to GB. Not sure if this a play for me or not, but I would lean laying the chalk here. It will be interesting to see what Amari Cooper can do to help the Bills offense over the course of the year, but I would think it will be limited this week.
Game(s) of the week!
We have some Dandy's baby!
Lets start with the SB rematch:
KC/SF: Turnovers! Both offenses have been turnover machines this season including the last four games: KC 7 and SF 8 respectively. That is some sloppiness normally reserved for Vivid Entertainment - not two of the best offenses in the NFL. San Francisco's offense has been much better averaging 430 yards and 28 points while Kansas City's defense has been much stiffer allowing 269 yards and 16 points. Now, where the defenses differ is on forced turnovers, KC only forcing 3 while SF has forced 7. I think this one is simple, whichever team wins the turnover battle will come out on top. I like SF in on the MoneyLine at home and I'm with the picker on the under as well.
Det/MIN: Who had this one picked as a competitive game much less, IMO, the game of the week? Goes to show why looking at the schedule before the season, especially in April and trying to make judgements about who has a tough or weak schedule is foolish. I mean Sam Fucking Darnold....yep that guy. What a start to the season. Good for him. And fortunately for him he doesn't have to deal with Hutchinson off the edge (shitty for him, hope he heals quick) allowing more time to find his plethora of weapons. Talk about efficiency gaining 326 yards while scoring 27.5 per game. Doesn't get much better than that, well actually it doesn't get any better than that, they lead the league over their last four games in Yards Per Point scored at 11.7. Detroit is no slouch either, averaging 429 yards scoring 31.2 for a 13.7 yards per point scored. Both offenses are well oiled efficient machines.
Now, how about those defenses? Well, pretty close there too. Detroit is allowing 315 yards and 17.8 ppg, while Minny is allowing 353 for 17.5 ppg. As mentioned above, it will remain to be seen what kind of drop off will occur for Detroit minus Hutchinson. But based on games played so far both teams are only separated by 2.5 yards per point allowed and 2 yards per point scored. Like I said game of the week!
So, what gives? Minnesota has turned the ball over 5 times in the past two games which sounds catastrophic but their defense has saved the day by causing a whopping 7 turnovers giving them a +2 in the turnover battle. Now look back at that efficiency on offense and you can see the defense has helped that by providing short fields. At the same time, Detroit has not turned the ball over in the past two games and only twice in the past four. But its defense has forced 7 themselves in the past two games 9 in the past four giving them a silly +7 in the past two weeks and a +6 in the past four. As always, "its the economy stupid", turnovers will most likely determine the winner on Sunday.
With Minnesota coming off a bye and Detroit on the road for the second week in a row along with the loss of Hutchinson, I am with the picker on the home team here, my play would be the Money line and I would lean towards the over.
I'm hoping the picker gets the ship righted this week.
Before I get into the games a quick housekeeping update:
1. Fixed the issue with the wrong predicted spread displaying. I have a conditional formatting rule that is supposed to blank out the cell that is does not coincide with the pick. I corrected that everything is the way it should be.
2. I removed a decimal point to give what I think is a cleaner look. I initially removed the decimals all together for the predicted score, but the rounding up and down could be confusing I felt. So I decided to keep the one decimal.
3. I also changed the font of the team names and bolded the pickers play in that game. Thinking it will help folks identify the play quicker.
4. Remember the original model is based solely on the last four games. The new model has an additional dataset that is the average for the season. Now every team in the league has played at least five games, so, I think this week is the week we will really start to see what kind of difference that makes and if it improves the picker or not.
To the games:
TNF
Den/NO: 29 points from Denver? Denver is averaging nearly 22 ppg over the last 4 while New Orleans is allowing over 450 yards per game on defense and a eye opening 29.5 points. Denver's defense is playing stifling defense allowing 287 yards per game along with 14.2 ppg. I expect NO's offense to struggle against this defense and Denver to have some room to move the ball on offense. The biggest question is can Denver put it in the End Zone? They are converting at a rate of 50% in the red zone 9 TDs in 18 trips while NO's is allowing teams to score 38% of the time. On the flip side, NO's offense has been excellent in the red zone converting 71% while Denver's defense has been equally as impressive allowing just 4 TDs in 12 trips allowed. I see a closer game than the picker does, but I think my play would be the over.
Homers
NE/JAX: Ah, even the picker is on the Drake Maye wagon, at least with a little boost from the oddsmakers. I personally can't trust this Pats team to play disciplined enough to beat anyone right now. I also think in this game Jacksonville does have a homefield advantage, even though the picker treated this as a neutral field, given the fact they have been in London for two weeks now. And that is not whining, I do believe they deserve it. Regardless of what you may think of the international games Jacksonville stepped up to play multiple games over there. So, it is what it is. I think I agree, the Pats keep this game close or maybe the ineptness of both teams, at this point, will keep it close. With that said I agree with the picker rolling with the Pats and the points here.
Head Scratchers
NYG/PHI: I do not agree here, so lets dig into the numbers on this one. First the offensive numbers are nearly identical between the two teams:
Yards/Points
NYG: 343/18
PHI: 356/18
As you can see both teams are moving the football up and down the field but simply struggle to put points on the scoreboard. Both teams are 8 of 18 in the red zone conversions. The Giants have a bit of an edge on defense allowing 287/18 to Philly's 353/20.8 which accounts for point differential in this weeks pick. Another interesting note is that both defenses have allowed 17 trips to the red zone and allowed 7 TDs. Philly comes into this game -4 in the turnover battle giving the ball away 5 times in the past four games while the Giants are -1 also giving it away 5 times. Both teams have played tough schedules with SoS at or above 500%. This is a no play for me, but if forced to make a play I would take the under.
Ten/BUF: I won't deep dive into the numbers on this one, but essentially Buffalo's defense is what is pushing the picker towards Tennessee. Buffalo's defense is allowing 371 yards and 22 ppg and Tennessee's offense has been pretty efficient gaining 255 yards and scoring 19.8 ppg. However, a lot of Tennessee's numbers are skewed by the Miami win. Me personally, I disagree with the picker here. But again, some of the numbers support it, Tennessee's average loss is by 8.25 points with three of the four by a TD or less. The one outlier is losing by 16 to GB. Not sure if this a play for me or not, but I would lean laying the chalk here. It will be interesting to see what Amari Cooper can do to help the Bills offense over the course of the year, but I would think it will be limited this week.
Game(s) of the week!
We have some Dandy's baby!
Lets start with the SB rematch:
KC/SF: Turnovers! Both offenses have been turnover machines this season including the last four games: KC 7 and SF 8 respectively. That is some sloppiness normally reserved for Vivid Entertainment - not two of the best offenses in the NFL. San Francisco's offense has been much better averaging 430 yards and 28 points while Kansas City's defense has been much stiffer allowing 269 yards and 16 points. Now, where the defenses differ is on forced turnovers, KC only forcing 3 while SF has forced 7. I think this one is simple, whichever team wins the turnover battle will come out on top. I like SF in on the MoneyLine at home and I'm with the picker on the under as well.
Det/MIN: Who had this one picked as a competitive game much less, IMO, the game of the week? Goes to show why looking at the schedule before the season, especially in April and trying to make judgements about who has a tough or weak schedule is foolish. I mean Sam Fucking Darnold....yep that guy. What a start to the season. Good for him. And fortunately for him he doesn't have to deal with Hutchinson off the edge (shitty for him, hope he heals quick) allowing more time to find his plethora of weapons. Talk about efficiency gaining 326 yards while scoring 27.5 per game. Doesn't get much better than that, well actually it doesn't get any better than that, they lead the league over their last four games in Yards Per Point scored at 11.7. Detroit is no slouch either, averaging 429 yards scoring 31.2 for a 13.7 yards per point scored. Both offenses are well oiled efficient machines.
Now, how about those defenses? Well, pretty close there too. Detroit is allowing 315 yards and 17.8 ppg, while Minny is allowing 353 for 17.5 ppg. As mentioned above, it will remain to be seen what kind of drop off will occur for Detroit minus Hutchinson. But based on games played so far both teams are only separated by 2.5 yards per point allowed and 2 yards per point scored. Like I said game of the week!
So, what gives? Minnesota has turned the ball over 5 times in the past two games which sounds catastrophic but their defense has saved the day by causing a whopping 7 turnovers giving them a +2 in the turnover battle. Now look back at that efficiency on offense and you can see the defense has helped that by providing short fields. At the same time, Detroit has not turned the ball over in the past two games and only twice in the past four. But its defense has forced 7 themselves in the past two games 9 in the past four giving them a silly +7 in the past two weeks and a +6 in the past four. As always, "its the economy stupid", turnovers will most likely determine the winner on Sunday.
With Minnesota coming off a bye and Detroit on the road for the second week in a row along with the loss of Hutchinson, I am with the picker on the home team here, my play would be the Money line and I would lean towards the over.
I'm hoping the picker gets the ship righted this week.
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Going into tonight's game:
Some improvement. Hopefull it can go 2-0 tonight. Solid week on the O/U by all three models. New models will beat out the original this week as all three models have the same picks tonight.
Original
ATS: 5-8
SU: 8-5
O/U: 8-4-1
Model 1
ATS: 8-5
SU: 9-4
O/U: 8-4-1
Model 2
ATS: 8-5
SU: 9-4
O/U: 8-4-1
Some improvement. Hopefull it can go 2-0 tonight. Solid week on the O/U by all three models. New models will beat out the original this week as all three models have the same picks tonight.
Original
ATS: 5-8
SU: 8-5
O/U: 8-4-1
Model 1
ATS: 8-5
SU: 9-4
O/U: 8-4-1
Model 2
ATS: 8-5
SU: 9-4
O/U: 8-4-1
The Picker
Member
Week 7 Results
Improvement but ever subtle ATS. Great week on the Over/Unders for my predictions. Fucking TB and LAC couldn't come through to save my ass, and make my shit presentable for company. Nope, LA has to choke at the end and TB made it look better than it was. Although, I think losing Evans early really changed the dynamic of the game. Godwin is good as a two, but he just doesn't open up the field the way Evans does as the one. And speaking of both, hopefully Evans will be back soon, but Godwin is done. That was a gross injury. Tampa will miss both and will struggle mightily as long as Evans is out.
My new Models had winning weeks across the board which is promising. I will stick with my original through the year and then decide which way to go next year. But so far, the original is looking a little Biden-ed, if you know what I mean.
Still have plenty of weeks to go. Will put my head back into the crystal ball and work on sharpening my Nostradamus skills.
Improvement but ever subtle ATS. Great week on the Over/Unders for my predictions. Fucking TB and LAC couldn't come through to save my ass, and make my shit presentable for company. Nope, LA has to choke at the end and TB made it look better than it was. Although, I think losing Evans early really changed the dynamic of the game. Godwin is good as a two, but he just doesn't open up the field the way Evans does as the one. And speaking of both, hopefully Evans will be back soon, but Godwin is done. That was a gross injury. Tampa will miss both and will struggle mightily as long as Evans is out.
My new Models had winning weeks across the board which is promising. I will stick with my original through the year and then decide which way to go next year. But so far, the original is looking a little Biden-ed, if you know what I mean.
Still have plenty of weeks to go. Will put my head back into the crystal ball and work on sharpening my Nostradamus skills.
Evans makes that offense click. Even more than Godwin I feel
The Picker
Member
Week 8 Predictions
And we are onto week 8, nearly halfway through the season, crazy how fast time goes. Well, it’s no secret the original recipe has been struggling mightily, not New England nor Carolina level struggles per se. Lets just say I’ve been eaten some shitty ass pork bbq doused in vinegar (yeah that’s a good time) dropped into a big heaping bowl of good ol' chowda. Yep, folks gross about sums it up best. But I got time to turn it around and don't look now, but my shiny new models are starting to look like 20 year old blonde bombshells who are just starting to get a touch of personality. Maybe by next year you’ll be able to carry on a conversation with them about real world stuff like the latest episode of call her daddy.
Honestly, if Over/Unders is your thing you’d be doing well by my original recipe and holding water with the blondes. Although all three had a solid 71% weekend on the over/unders. The blondes are working there way out of the red, slowly but surely, much like Marylin sneaking out of a Kennedy hotel room. It be nice if the original went straight Fang Fang on this week’s picks, I mean she knew how to work fast. But looking at my predictions after crunching numbers like Russel Crowe in A Beautiful Mind, I feel confident this could be an 8-10 win week for the ol’ girl. The blondes don’t disagree on any of the games and I think they might rub another one out this week again with 8-10 wins ATS.
Questionable Games:
ATL/TB: Mostly due to injuries for Tampa here, but also the inconsistent play over all of the Falcons. If Tampa is without Evans, it will definitely take a total team effort to produce on the offensive side of the ball. Defense will need to get turnovers along with 3 and outs to give Baker and the mash unit effective field position all day. Special Teams will need to do their part as well.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Will add some more game write ups hopefully tomorrow. Edit: Its tomorrow and I am too lazy.
Edit Note: The combined view had the wrong over/under live totals on them, I corrected it and replaced the image. I am still tinkering with the automation to make my life easier and well, I thought the formula copied over and it did not for the over under lines.
And we are onto week 8, nearly halfway through the season, crazy how fast time goes. Well, it’s no secret the original recipe has been struggling mightily, not New England nor Carolina level struggles per se. Lets just say I’ve been eaten some shitty ass pork bbq doused in vinegar (yeah that’s a good time) dropped into a big heaping bowl of good ol' chowda. Yep, folks gross about sums it up best. But I got time to turn it around and don't look now, but my shiny new models are starting to look like 20 year old blonde bombshells who are just starting to get a touch of personality. Maybe by next year you’ll be able to carry on a conversation with them about real world stuff like the latest episode of call her daddy.
Honestly, if Over/Unders is your thing you’d be doing well by my original recipe and holding water with the blondes. Although all three had a solid 71% weekend on the over/unders. The blondes are working there way out of the red, slowly but surely, much like Marylin sneaking out of a Kennedy hotel room. It be nice if the original went straight Fang Fang on this week’s picks, I mean she knew how to work fast. But looking at my predictions after crunching numbers like Russel Crowe in A Beautiful Mind, I feel confident this could be an 8-10 win week for the ol’ girl. The blondes don’t disagree on any of the games and I think they might rub another one out this week again with 8-10 wins ATS.
Questionable Games:
ATL/TB: Mostly due to injuries for Tampa here, but also the inconsistent play over all of the Falcons. If Tampa is without Evans, it will definitely take a total team effort to produce on the offensive side of the ball. Defense will need to get turnovers along with 3 and outs to give Baker and the mash unit effective field position all day. Special Teams will need to do their part as well.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Will add some more game write ups hopefully tomorrow. Edit: Its tomorrow and I am too lazy.
Edit Note: The combined view had the wrong over/under live totals on them, I corrected it and replaced the image. I am still tinkering with the automation to make my life easier and well, I thought the formula copied over and it did not for the over under lines.
Last edited:
Been incorporating this with pure gut feelings and went on a heater last week.
I should of listened to my own advice from last week would of been 5-3 not great but a winner.
That’s the great thing about gambling. You could always just do it again next week.
The Picker
Member
9 wins across the board going into Monday Night. The new models and the original split the 4 games they disagreed on. Would be nice to get off the schneid with a double digit win week.
Just threw down $25k on Pittsburgh -6.5.
The Picker
Member
Dingleberries.
Naturally. I wish I was wealthy enough to throw down $25k in cash on a game that I probably won’t even watch.
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