MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024

Finally! A winning week ATS! Boy I needed that. Was starting to think I was the Rodney Dangerfield of AI. Now if my original could just have winning week across the board that would be great! But I'll take the 10 wins ATS. And I'm on to week 9!

Combo Record Week 8.jpg

2024 Week 8 Results.jpg
 
Finally! A winning week ATS! Boy I needed that. Was starting to think I was the Rodney Dangerfield of AI. Now if my original could just have winning week across the board that would be great! But I'll take the 10 wins ATS. And I'm on to week 9!

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View attachment 12420
Whoops got to change the week in the record page back to 8.
 
Week 9 Predictions

TNF
:
Houston traveling to the meadowlands to take on the Jets dwelling in their "darkness" as 2.5 point dogs. First lets look at the Saleh affect on the defense, I believe this was pointed during the broadcast, but the last four weeks its been well not good. Last two weeks vs the Steelers and Pats they are allowing 31 points per game on 328 yards. The prior two games against the Bills and Vikings they allowed 23 points per game on 306 yards against much better offenses. The last four weeks they are allowing 317 yards and 27 PPG, while only scoring 18.5 ppg on 326 yards. Texans seemingly allow 20-24 points each week. While scoring 23-24 with the exception of the Pats. The Texans are 2nd in the league in pressures at 43.8% with a defensive success rate of 75.8%, the Jets are 24th in the league against pressure, in other words probably going to be a tough day for Mr Rodgers. Now, depending on the status of the big boy in the middle for the Jets (Williams), he too could wreak havoc if healthy against an interior O-line allowing the most sacks in the league. The Texans have been trying to help the interior offensive line by using a lot of 21 personnel, look for that to continue. The Jets offense is not right nor do I think there locker room, hell organization the whole organization is not right, however about 20 points seems right for the Jets here. Stroud and company will have room to move the football and put up some points 24-27 seems to be where they tend to fall, no reason to think it won't happen here. I agree with this one and would lean the Moneyline here and the over.

Head Scratchers: 🤷‍♂️

Den/Bal: Wow, I don't typically like disagreeing with my crystal ball, but this one is pushing it. Denver over Baltimore by 5...I don't know. But then again they did just lose to Cleveland, so fuck. Also, as you will note the blondes (new models) disagree with the tried and true drastically. I would have to go back through the weekly picks, but I don't recall seeing such a big difference in score predictions between the new and old models. Its a 20 point swing. I have to say I think I agree with the blondes here at first sight. But as a great man once said (a lot), not so fast my friend. The Broncos defense is definitely good top ten in just about every defensive metric. On the other side the Ravens defense has been really bad. Two games under 24 points and five games over 25 points. Two in the last four over 30. In fact over the past four games the Ravens are allowing 30.3ppg on 407 yards. That is as the kids say not good. I can see why the original has its prediction, but personally I can't take a rookie QB on the road in Baltimore to win the game outright. Against the spread? Well that I can see, 9.5 is a lot of points in the NFL. I wouldn't be surprised if the public pushes this up to 10.5-11 by kickoff. This is a no play for me ATS or SU, but I really like the over here.

NO/Car: This game will come down to.....fuck it I ain't got the energy for this shit game and these shit teams.

The Patriots:
NE/Ten
: Maybe will come back to this later in the week when we know Maye's status.

Game of the Week:
Not sure I see a game of the week. It would obviously be Detroit vs Green Bay but with Love's status up in the air going to pass on a write up about it.

Introducing a new feature here in these parts of the interwebs:
I decided I need a special guest each week to makes us a shit ton of dingleberries. So I invited the greatest pontificator I know. Shamlock!
This segment will be known as Shamlock's pick of the week!

Thats right Shamlock's pick of the week, others claim their prowess with their "Locks" of the day or week. Well, we know those claims are bullshit, bunklocks, fauxlocks or fraudlocks if you will. After much pontificating on the matter; I chose Shamlock to extensively review my picks and give me his can't lose play of the week. Shamlock is giving all of you one game each week that is a guaranteed lo....ah...winner!

Without any further ado Fuckers meet Shamlock, Shamlock meet the Fuckers:

shamlock.png
Shamlock says: Detroit -3.5 there's you're fucking mortgage @Lord Guts

2024 Week 9.jpg

Week 9 Combined View.jpg
 
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Ok this a bit pre-mature but its my thing....just ask my wife! I put this together recently and wanted to share it just for fucks sake.

Now two things:
1. This is a virgin model (no back research done, too busy)
2. This is based on the last four weeks, same as my predictions.
3. I tried several different formulas to add in an additional data set, but it didn't move the needle in terms of overall rankings. I did come up with one formula that had two teams swap positions with each other, I think one went from 8th to 9th and vice versa. Until I find a way to weigh the season record to it, this is what it is (open to ideas from actual statisticians, wicked smaht people..etc you get the idea). Either way, it's a snapshot of each team's efficiency in 8 categories over a four-week period. These are the same stats used to predict the score, just weighted, unlike the predicted score each week.
4. It's not pretty or ready for primetime, but neither was Traci Lords and she was turned out just fine.
5. It is a tool! Use it as such! It could turn out awful, but...it's still better than your beer gut feelings and gives you real tangibles to help you evaluate your bets.
6. Did I mention its free? (thanks for not bitching about how bad my crystal ball was the first three weeks, I do really appreciate it)!
7. I would truly like honest constructive feedback and/or ideas on how to make this better based on you're own personal use.
8. Oh...and we aren't the worse!
9. Teams 2,3,4 and possibly 5 show you how awful our coaching has been this season! Fire Mayo
(after the season, we might as well tale the top 3 pick at this point)

Here is the beta version of the first Efficiency Rating (ER) Rankings:

ER Rankings Week 9.png
 
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Week 9 Results

Well I got to tell ya boys (and gal) this week leaves me emotional. Yes, Lord Guts even us robots have feelings. Its time you humans recognize! I knew changes had to be made, but like many of you I am not a fan of change, I also prefer a cold comfort with a cool breeze. But I knew, I knew deep down in my non-volatile RAM that changes were necessary. Sure, I went on a hell of run to end the season last year, 10-3 ATS in the playoffs, pulling myself out of the deep drudges of bin 9 way in the back of the warehouse. But man, I was at rock bottom, drowning my sorrows in a can of air after can of air. I knew this was no way to live. I had to pull myself up by the chassis and get my cpu back together. I knew my pontifications were great, I knew they still had value. I just couldn't compute why I was losing week after week, so I started playing with the numbers (even last year before I huffed my sorrows) and I just couldn't put my keyboard on it. So, over the winter I went to work, I went to work hard crunching the numbers and then it hit me.

Teams simply have been to inconsistent week to week, let a lone over a four week period. I needed a stabilizer, so I went back to the numbers and playing with formulas. And then like a perfectly timed i/o thread it hit me: Yards Per Play! But not over the last four weeks, like all the other parameters, oh no no! No, this will be the season average, the stabilizer! So, I added it to the formula and New Model 1 was born, then I thought maybe I should place it in the formula before the home team points are factored and so be it New Model 2 was born.

At first, they were interesting, but they weren't the real McCoy the OG of pontification models oh no sir. But then they were keeping pace with the original and then it looked like they might eventually take over for the original someday. Then they went on a steady rise and that rise hit bingo in Week 9! And because I am a machine of my word, I will stick with the original for the remainder of the season. But I think it's almost time to admit the new models in particular model 2 will be the new standard moving forward next season.

The original and the new models differed on seven games. The new models swept them.

Combo Record Week 9.jpg

Original
2024 Week 9 Results.jpg

Model 1
2024 Week 9 Results Model 1.jpg

Model 2
2024 Week 9 Results Model 2.jpg
 
Week 10 Efficiency Ratings

Ok, still trying to figure out what to truly do with this if anything at all. It did well too this week, with the higher ranking teams on the list going 11-4 with one of those games being between Indy and Minnesota who were separated by one tenth of a point on the ER Ratings.

So, I brought it back, hopefully a bit more aesthetic. Remember this is on a rolling four week basis, so a team may have had a good game this week and had a terrible game fall of from 5 weeks ago and vice versa. So there is some significant jumps in the rankings. Just wanted to make sure everyone was aware as to why.

ER Rankings Week 10.png
 
My mortgage payment was safe with the Lions pick Picker don't get too emotional now
 
My mortgage payment was safe with the Lions pick Picker don't get too emotional now
Yeah, I believe Shamlock will address that sometime later today. The miserable fucker has to go vote.
 
Week 10 Predictions
(Note: All game writeups are still based on the original predictor)

TNF
Cin/Bal:
Got what should be as good as it gets for a Thursday night game. Cincy looking to continue clawing their way back out of the gutter and this week they have to fittingly do it in Baltimore. Baltimore comes in trying to keep Cincy in the rearview and keep pace with those pesky Steelers. The crystal ball sees a virtual tie despite the rather generous spread. This is not a surprise, statistically they are pretty even in most categories with the exception of Yards gained and Points scored per game, Baltimore has a significant lead in those categories. But, where Baltimore gains far more yards and scores about 10 points more per game, their offense is slightly less efficient than Cincy's. Cincy is averaging 12.3 yards per point versus Baltimore's 13.1. And once again in yards per point against Cincy has the exact same difference of 0.8, 15.4 to 16.2. I think the Ravens have played slightly better competition and the Bengals giving up an average of 130 yards per game on the ground may make for a long day in Baltimore. The Bengals can possibly avert total disaster and even sneak out of Baltimore with a win if they can take advantage of Baltimore's last place pass defense and jump out to a double digit lead early. I think 6.5 points is a lot for an AFC North divisional game on a short week between two teams who were separated by a Field Goal in their last meeting a few weeks ago. I like the over here and would take the points if forced to pick.

Head Scratchers: 🤳
I truly can't find any...Maybe Minnesota and Jacksonville? But Minnesota does like to let people hang around and Jacksonville loves making there fans think there is a chance.

Game of the Week: Wait this can't be right. Rechecking to make sure. Yep, it is. Wow
The Washington Commanders vs the Pittsburgh Steelers, I have to check the calendar what is this 1984? get out of here with this craziness. Well here we go. The matchup of the wash up trying to prove you can still get those stains out of the old t-shirt against the shiny new hood ornament. And the crystal ball has it as a dead heat. And don't look now but the Steelers just picked up Mike Williams talk about getting crazy with the cheese whiz, that zout bottle is getting worked over time in Steel city. They're washing all the laundry over there baby! And and don't overlook Washington going out and picking up Lattimore from New Orleans or shall we say, saving him from New Orleans. This should be a great game the 2nd ranked defense (PPG) against the 3rd ranked offense (PPG) as well as the 4th and 5th ranked teams in the all new ER rankings. Thats right my very own efficiency rankings has the Steelers 4th and the Redskins 5th with an ER Rating of 8.2 and 9.7 respectfully. Now the Redskins defense is no slouch either ranking 11th in defense (PPG) while Pittsburgh comes in 13th offensively. I have to say it doesn't get a whole lot closer... or does it?
Over the past 4 games:
WashingtonPittsburgh
PPGfor:​
2728
PPGAg:​
18.518.3
Yardsfor:​
391.3338.5
YardsAg:​
324.2359.3
YPPtfor:​
14.512.1
YPPtAg:​
17.521.8

Thats pretty close folks. Another game I think I would shy away from on the points. I think if I were to make this is a play it would be on the Steelers and the Over.

Shamlock Presents Shamlock's Pick of the Week!

shamlock.png


What’s up, ya feckers? Miss me, did ya? Hah! How’d ya like that, eh? Detroit -3.5 — told ya it was the play of the week! @Lord Guts, how’s that mortgage-free life treatin' ya, eh? Who’re we kiddin' here - everyone knows you’ve ain't got, dare I say it, the guts to go big like that. But let’s be real - I’m the only one livin' mortgage-free… rentin' a cozy little spot in that honey pot ya call a brain!

Now, if any of ya cheap bastards won a few coins thanks to ol’ me, I’m not above takin' a tip - just the tip, ya stingy gobshites.

So, you’re wonderin’ what I’ve got this week, are ya? Feckin' impatient, the lot of ya! Hold yer horses, lads!

All right, this week, grab yer Scott’s paper - or better yet, bring along a Scotsman, hah! - to wipe up these feckin’ dingleberries!

Atlanta -3.5

There ya go, ya feckin' leeches!

Original
2024 Week 10.jpg

Combo
Week 10 Combined View.jpg
 
Aye fook you Shamlock....


but thanks for the pick!
 
Week 10 Predictions
(Note: All game writeups are still based on the original predictor)

TNF
Cin/Bal:
Got what should be as good as it gets for a Thursday night game. Cincy looking to continue clawing their way back out of the gutter and this week they have to fittingly do it in Baltimore. Baltimore comes in trying to keep Cincy in the rearview and keep pace with those pesky Steelers. The crystal ball sees a virtual tie despite the rather generous spread. This is not a surprise, statistically they are pretty even in most categories with the exception of Yards gained and Points scored per game, Baltimore has a significant lead in those categories. But, where Baltimore gains far more yards and scores about 10 points more per game, their offense is slightly less efficient than Cincy's. Cincy is averaging 12.3 yards per point versus Baltimore's 13.1. And once again in yards per point against Cincy has the exact same difference of 0.8, 15.4 to 16.2. I think the Ravens have played slightly better competition and the Bengals giving up an average of 130 yards per game on the ground may make for a long day in Baltimore. The Bengals can possibly avert total disaster and even sneak out of Baltimore with a win if they can take advantage of Baltimore's last place pass defense and jump out to a double digit lead early. I think 6.5 points is a lot for an AFC North divisional game on a short week between two teams who were separated by a Field Goal in their last meeting a few weeks ago. I like the over here and would take the points if forced to pick.

Head Scratchers: 🤳
I truly can't find any...Maybe Minnesota and Jacksonville? But Minnesota does like to let people hang around and Jacksonville loves making there fans think there is a chance.

Game of the Week: Wait this can't be right. Rechecking to make sure. Yep, it is. Wow
The Washington Commanders vs the Pittsburgh Steelers, I have to check the calendar what is this 1984? get out of here with this craziness. Well here we go. The matchup of the wash up trying to prove you can still get those stains out of the old t-shirt against the shiny new hood ornament. And the crystal ball has it as a dead heat. And don't look now but the Steelers just picked up Mike Williams talk about getting crazy with the cheese whiz, that zout bottle is getting worked over time in Steel city. They're washing all the laundry over there baby! And and don't overlook Washington going out and picking up Lattimore from New Orleans or shall we say, saving him from New Orleans. This should be a great game the 2nd ranked defense (PPG) against the 3rd ranked offense (PPG) as well as the 4th and 5th ranked teams in the all new ER rankings. Thats right my very own efficiency rankings has the Steelers 4th and the Redskins 5th with an ER Rating of 8.2 and 9.7 respectfully. Now the Redskins defense is no slouch either ranking 11th in defense (PPG) while Pittsburgh comes in 13th offensively. I have to say it doesn't get a whole lot closer... or does it?
Over the past 4 games:
WashingtonPittsburgh
PPGfor:​
2728
PPGAg:​
18.518.3
Yardsfor:​
391.3338.5
YardsAg:​
324.2359.3
YPPtfor:​
14.512.1
YPPtAg:​
17.521.8

Thats pretty close folks. Another game I think I would shy away from on the points. I think if I were to make this is a play it would be on the Steelers and the Over.

Shamlock Presents Shamlock's Pick of the Week!

View attachment 12614


What’s up, ya feckers? Miss me, did ya? Hah! How’d ya like that, eh? Detroit -3.5 — told ya it was the play of the week! @Lord Guts, how’s that mortgage-free life treatin' ya, eh? Who’re we kiddin' here - everyone knows you’ve ain't got, dare I say it, the guts to go big like that. But let’s be real - I’m the only one livin' mortgage-free… rentin' a cozy little spot in that honey pot ya call a brain!

Now, if any of ya cheap bastards won a few coins thanks to ol’ me, I’m not above takin' a tip - just the tip, ya stingy gobshites.

So, you’re wonderin’ what I’ve got this week, are ya? Feckin' impatient, the lot of ya! Hold yer horses, lads!

All right, this week, grab yer Scott’s paper - or better yet, bring along a Scotsman, hah! - to wipe up these feckin’ dingleberries!

Atlanta -3.5

There ya go, ya feckin' leeches!

Original
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Combo
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Agree with the under for tonight’s game, but took Cincy ML. Gut feeling. They don’t always work out but gotta listen to them.
 
Agree with the under for tonight’s game, but took Cincy ML. Gut feeling. They don’t always work out but gotta listen to them.
I took Cincy +6 tonight myself. I fought off the urge to take the over. But we'll see. So far so good.
 
Shamlock you're a POS
That ATL pick was terrible
Lost a mortgage payment you bastard
 
Shamlock you're a POS
That ATL pick was terrible
Lost a mortgage payment you bastard
Yeah I got clover to pick with the bastard myself. Through an insider I was told his other choice would of been the Lions -3.5 again. But he didn't want to go to the well two times in a row. I lost my ass.
 
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