MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024

[The Picker]

Week 10 Results

Overall, not a bad week. The original pushing to make a comeback while all three came into the homestretch on Sunday night looking good only to have Detroit and Los Angeles screw it up. The new Models pushed at 7-7 while the Original went 9-5. That is only the second winning week of the season while the new models three-week winning streak came to end, it did so with a 500 weekend. Both Models are still above 50%. While all three models struggled with the Over-Under, the new models remain at or above 50% while the original dipped to 48%.




Original


Model 1


Model 2

 

[The Picker]

Week 11 Predictions

TNF
WAS/PHI: Another great matchup on Thursday night. Number one this week in the ER Rankings hosts number five, but more importantly first place in the NFC East is on the line while both teams try to keep pace with Detroit for the first seed overall in the NFC. A lot of pre-Thanksgiving jockeying (....turkying??) involved in this one.

The Commanders head into Washington scoring the 3rd most points in the league per game. While the Eagles defense respectively holds its opponents to 17.9 ppg good enough for 6th in the NFL. Meanwhile Washington bolsters the 12th best defense in the league allowing 21.7 ppg. However, that narrative changes quite significantly over the past four games. Washington's offense is scoring right around their season average (29 ppg) at 28 ppg and the defense has been outperforming their season average of 21.7 ppg only allowing 18 ppg over their last four.

So why the significant win prediction you ask?

Simple Philadelphia has been nothing short of superb over its last four games since getting the band back together. Scoring at a clip of 31.8 ppg and allowing just 12.3 ppg on defense. But hey they were beating up the sisters of the poor you say...well two things, first they can only play who's put in front of them and two Washington hasn't exactly been playing murderer's row. Both teams have faced mostly sub-par talent in their last four games both with one game against a playoff caliber team Washington has Pittsburgh and Philly has Cincy.

Philly is a team that fought through a stretch of games with significant injuries to key guys and has gotten healthy, but more importantly appear to have had a few sessions with a shrink and managed to get themselves mentally right. The picker has Philly pulling off a big win here and I can't really disagree with this. I'm breaking out the chalk for this one.

Head Scratchers:

PIT/BAL: Pittsburgh a TD plus better than Baltimore?
Lets dive into why. While the Ravens offense has been a scoring machine, best in the league actually, the defense has left a lot to be desired. Like 25th in the league a lot. The passing defense is downright indefensible, literally last in the league in passing yards allowed per game at 294.9, nearly 300 yards passing allowed, per game! There are five defenses in the league that don't allow 300 yards total per game. Yeah, but they lead a lot, and teams have to throw on them to try and stay in the game etc...yeah, there is some truth to that.

Teams do throw on them at a high rate, actually more than any other team in the league at a 66.5% clip. But sorry folks, its not to keep up, its cause they just downright suck at pass defense. Nearly at the bottom of all passing categories in the league 6.9 Yard Per Pass (28th) and 22 TD's (32). The only defensive passing stat they come close to hitting the top half of the league in is completion percentage at 17th with a rate of 65.6%. To be fair, they do have the best run defense in the league allowing 3.4 ypc and just 73 yards per game. Not so surprising they also get run on the least.

The Ravens offense on the other hand, as I'm sure everyone is aware, is off the charts across the board. YPG, PPG, number three passing offense, number one rushing offense. They score! The Ravens are by far the most lopsided team in the NFL.

Pittsburgh on the other hand is a middling offense that can put up enough points each week to stay in the game. Their defense is solid, but maybe not as good as they appear at first glance. They are 4th in run defense, but a subpar 19th in passing defense. They don't seem to excel at anything numbers wise on either side of the ball, but they win. I'd be remised not to mention the Steelers special teams here.

So why the 7-point prediction for Pittsburgh? Well over the past four games Pittsburgh has averaged 30.8 ppg on offense and allowed just 18.3 ppg on defense. In that same span, Baltimore has scored an average of 35.3 ppg and allowed 26. They also allowed an average of 417.8 yards of offense to their opponents during this time. The defense has been well below its season average for the Ravens, while the Steelers offense has been well above its season average, with Pittsburgh's defense shooting par. I would lay off this game, but tough to lay off Pittsburgh getting points at home in an NFC North battle.

LAR/NE: Normally I leave this as its own category, however I was a bit shocked at this prediction. But then again I looked at the numbers. Even with their guys back the Rams are only averaging 22.8 ppg on offense and just a shy under 20 points per game with 19.5. While NE is both scoring and allowing 19.3 ppg. I could continue on through the numbers, but they are nearly identical across the board over the last four games. The difference here is New England at home. Otherwise, the final score is slightly opposite. But it does not change the pick of the NE plus 5.5. I'm gonna drink the kool-aid here and think NE can keep it close and roll with the points. Also mark me down as a fan of the under as well.

ATL/DEN: This one simply comes down to how each team has played over the last four weeks. Atlanta has struggled a bit, two wins sandwiched in between, in my opinion, two bad losses. A blowout loss to Seattle at home then two wins against a depleted Tampa team and well...the Cowboys, closed out by a loss to the Saints. The offense is slugging along scoring just 22. 3ppg while giving up 25.3 ppg. Facing a Denver team on the road, with a slight chance for precipitation (long term forecast) doesn't seem congruent to an increase in offensive production.

Now Denver's defense is good, we are aware. But again, much like the Steelers that defense has had the benefit of playing some poor offenses. I think that has aided them in many ways and obviously holding down the Chiefs this past Sunday is a feather in their cap. It has also made some folks possibly over value the Broncos defense a bit. Good offenses can put up points on them. The Ravens just dropped 41, however they are hindered by a bottom ten offense. But that bottom ten offense has kept pace with Atlanta's over the four-game snapshot averaging 21.3 ppg to Atlanta's 25.3 ppg.

Once you really get into the meat of how both teams have been playing over the course of this past month, you can see how the crystal ball came up with this one.

Game of the Week:
KC/BUF: Number 1 seed decided on Sunday? It could definitely have a say. Buffalo is a well-balanced team, number two in this week's ER Power Rankings. Humming on offense to a tune of 31.3 ppg on offense while holding opponents to 16.8 ppg which is good enough for 4th over the past four weeks.

KC has been almost equally as impressive on the defensive side of the ball allowing 19 ppg and scoring a respectable 25.5 ppg but still a full TD less than Buffalo over the same span.

Both teams are playing outstanding coming into this game, Buffalo winners of their last five as well as undefeated at home, with KC coming into Buffalo undefeated. Can Buffalo find a way to somehow manage to have one more point than KC does when the clock ticks zero? Something has got to give. Sounds like rain in the forecast in Buffalo on Sunday. I'll take the rain on KC's parade and Buffalo here on the Money line.

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 1-1​

Alright, ya feckin’ eejits, no point in dressin’ this one up with flowers. I’ll start off with a big ol’ feck you - I didn’t hear a peep from ye bastards last week when you were all smug at the end of the rainbow, collectin’ your winnings, were ya?

And a particularly special feck you goes out to Yoo - ya stiff-necked gobshite! One job, Yoo, just one bleedin’ job!

Now, I know I let ye down. Beneath this rugged, devilishly handsome exterior lies a bit of a heart, believe it or not. So, I’ll dig down deep into me ancient scrolls of NFL wisdom and see if I can pull a unicorn outta me arse for ye this week.

Lay the chalk here lads, seems like it’s been chalk after chalk round these parts, but that’s just the way it’s been, ain’t it?

Houston -7.5

And "D'em" Girls? Absolutely brutal.

Ah, but because I’m feelin’ a touch generous, here’s another one for ya. Now, don’t call this official....just think of it as a wee olive branch.

CLE-NO Under 44.5

 

[The Picker]

Week 11 Efficiency Rankings

Alright, so far so good two weeks into this whole power ranking venture. The higher ranking teams finished 10-4 this week. Following up on an 11-4 the week before. How's that for efficient?

​

Got some shooters here this week boys. Well maybe it's something the Gal around these parts appreciates a bit more.

​

 

[The Picker]

Week 11 Results

Another mixed week. The orginal pulling itself up by the bootstraps and scraping out a winning week, its first back to back winning weeks on the season and its third overall.

The new models struggled a bit this week having their first losing week ATS in five weeks. Although Model 2 did eek out a winning week on the Over Under.

Some notes the original is slowly climbing its way up towards 50% ATS and is ever so slightly below 50% on the over unders. It has three winning weeks ATS and four losing weeks.

The new Models are both hovering around 50% with model 2 one game better and sitting at 51% ATS. The new Models both have three winning weeks, three losing weeks and one push week.

Looking at this week there are only three games the models disagree on and for just the second time this season Model 1 and Model 2 are on opposite sides of a game.






Model 1


Model 2

 

[The Picker]

Week 12 Predications

TNF: Thursday night's AFC North showdown (maybe Shitdown is more like it) the Steelers head into Cleveland. Pittsburgh, riding a five-game winning streak, is favored by 4.5 points, with an over/under set at 35.5. The Steelers' offense has been efficient, averaging 27.25 points per game (ppg) and 362.5 yards per game (ypg), ranking 8th in points per game. Their defense has been stout, allowing just 17.3 ppg and 322 ypg, placing them 7th in points allowed. Notably, Pittsburgh's defense excels in the red zone, permitting touchdowns on only 48.3% of opponents' trips.

In contrast, the Browns have struggled, losing seven of their last eight games. Their offense averages 16.75 ppg and 368 ypg, ranking 26th in points per game. Defensively, Cleveland allows 25.9 ppg and 356.25 ypg, ranking 25th in points allowed. For a defense that is considered "Good" by many pundits they're terrible in the red zone, allowing touchdowns 63.3% of the time, not good.

A 45% chance of rain and temperatures around 45°F are in the forecast at kickoff. Given Pittsburgh's balanced attack and Cleveland's defensive and offenseive woes, the Steelers area solid play here. Give me Pittsburgh covering the spread. The over/under of 35.5 suggests a low-scoring affair, but considering both teams' recent performances, I'd give the over a ponder.


New England: The Patriots head down to sunny Miami, where the Dolphins are laying 7.5 points with a total set at 46. On paper, New England’s defense deserves a little respect, allowing just 18.3 ppg while keeping things tight in the red zone (57.9% opponent success rate). The offense? Well, not so much. At 21.3 ppg, they’re consistent but far from explosive. If this team could find the end zone in the red zone (46.9% success), we might be talking about them more as a spoiler and less as a speed bump.

Miami comes in looking flashier, averaging 25.7 ppg with a solid offensive red zone rate of 55.2%. But their defense has been a bit of a liability, giving up 23 ppg and showing cracks against more disciplined offenses. Hard Rock Stadium hasn’t been the fortress they’d hoped for, with a 2-3 record at home. Still, with the weather hovering around a balmy 79°F, conditions are prime for Tua and Tyreek to make plays. Can the Dolphins finally put it all together in a game they should control?

If you’re feeling bold, sprinkle on the under - it’s tight, but the Pats’ red zone woes and Miami’s inconsistencies could keep this lower scoring than expected.

Head Scratchers:
Dallas, well we all know the answer to this one. This might be the last week they look competitive on paper. We'll see, I haven't looked ahead at their schedule. Maybe when they play the Gints.

KC/Car: Take Carolina and the points? Ah, can't get down with the picker on this one. The Chiefs roll into Charlotte as 11-point favorites over the struggling Panthers. Kansas City has been steady over the past month, allowing just 284.5 yards per game (ypg) while averaging 319.25 ypg on offense. Their defense has been particularly effective against the run, holding opponents to just 88 rushing yards per game, good for a top-10 ranking. On the offensive side, the Chiefs' ability to stretch the field has kept them competitive, averaging 5.2 yards per play (YPP).

Carolina, meanwhile, is terrible, in other news the sky is blue. Over the last month, the Panthers' offense has been anemic, producing just 254 ypg, the worst in the league during this span. Their defense has been equally ineffective, surrendering 397.5 ypg. To make matters worse, Carolina’s turnover differential is among the league’s worst, often putting their already shaky defense in bad spots.

It’s hard to see the Chiefs failing to cover the spread here.

Game of the Week: The Harbaugh Bowl: Baltimore visiting LA, with Baltimore favored by 3.5 points and an over/under set at 50.5. Over the past month, the Ravens have been firing offensively, averaging 29 points per game (ppg) while racking up 375.25 yards per game (ypg). However, their porous defense keeps leaking, surrendering 22.75 ppg and 373.25 ypg, leaving them vulnerable against high-powered (um) offenses.

The Chargers have been just as potent offensively, putting up 28.5 ppg on 366 ypg. Where they’ve truly shined is on defense, allowing only 15.5 ppg over the last four games. This defensive resurgence, paired with explosive offensive production especially led by my man Herbert, makes the Chargers a dangerous dog, especially at home.

Baltimore’s defensive woes versus the Chargers’ balanced attack should tilt this game in favor of the home team. Keep an eye on the over - it’s a high number, but both offenses are more than capable of clearing it. Rolling with the dog and may consider the over on this one. I wouldn't be afraid to take the moneyline on this one as well. I do have to note this is only the second time this season the new models disagreed on a game. Model 1 has the Ravens covering by a about a point. They both have Baltimore winning. But I have to say I'm with the OG on this one, I like the Chargers outright.

 

[The Picker]

Week 12 Shamlock's Efficiency Rankings




What a feckin’ week, lads. I mean, me emotions have been all over the place cheerin’ on me boys. First off, I’m delighted that this sheisty eejit MGCOLBY finally decided to give me some credit for me efficiency rankings. ‘Bout time, too. I mean, his original prediction model’s been about as accurate as Helen Keller judgin’ a longest shlong contest.

But I digress. 12-2 this week, 33-10 overall. Not too shabby, eh? I might just be onto somethin’ here. Not bad for a shit-kickin’ leprechaun from across the pond meddlin’ in your sport. Sláinte!

​

Ah, this week’s biggest Ladder Langer? That’d be the Texans. Fair play to them for beatin’ up on poor ol’ Jerrah’s sorry lot—quite the boost there. New Orleans takes the second spot, though I’ve a bone to pick with them, but I’ll save that rant for later. Sure, it always pays to hammer the downtrodden. And roundin’ out the top three are the Dolphins, flyin’ high like the cheeky feckers they are.

Now for the Plungers—no one made a louder splash hittin’ the pool than Jacksonville. Sure, some of it’s down to playin’ the best team in the NFL, but let’s be honest, most of it’s because they’ve Mac Jones at QB. The man’s a bettor’s pot of gold—pure joy to bet against. Sadly, it sounds like Lawrence’ll be back after their bye. Ah, it was good while it lasted.

Washington made a sizable splash too, didn’t they? The young lads there learned the hard way that bein’ competitive for three quarters doesn’t mean a damn thing. And the Packers? Jaysus, they nearly packed it in down in Chicago. Lucky for them, they managed to pull the tip out just in time. Feckin’ close one, that!

​

How about them Lions, eh? An ER ranking of 3.5 - by far the best we’ve seen since the whole thing kicked off. Not too shabby at all. Enjoy it, lads!

​

 

[The Picker]

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 2-1​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains


Ah, before I start crowin’ about the brilliance of me Shamlock of the Week, I’ve got to vent about that feckin’ disaster of a bad beat down in New Orleans. Jaysus, lads, I’ve taken some rough ones in me day - bad beats, I mean, not the other sort (though I did visit New Orleans once, but that’s a story for another time).

Anyway, bein’ down by double digits and scorin’ a garbage-time touchdown for a backdoor cover—that’s shitty enough when you’re on the wrong side, but at least it’s understandable. But feck me sideways—having the under and seein’ the team with the lead run an end-around for 75 feckin’ yards, with Taysom bleedin’ Hill, just tryin’ to run out the clock, only to score? That’s pure torture. Lads, we didn’t just lose that bet—we got a John Holmes-level screwin’, without so much as a drop of lube.

Right, off me soapbox! How ’bout them Cowgirls, eh? Woohoo—or is it Yeehaw? Feck, I don’t need to know what your wives sound like, lads. Keep that noise in the bedroom, ya perverted bastards.

I told ya Jerrah’s boys were gonna get ploughed, didn’t I? Hope you’re enjoyin’ the winnings - don’t blow it all in one spot, mind. Then again, who am I kiddin’? You lot probably threw it all on last night’s Central Michigan vs Western Michigan game and took the over 54.5, didn’t ya? Ah well, keep chancin’ your arm, boys. Sláinte!

Right, lads, let’s get on with it then. This week’s Shamlock pick is Arizona +1. Or if ye fancy, take the moneyline.

Either way, the Cardinals’ll be enjoyin’ their trip to that dreary hole called Seattle. Jaysus, with weather like that, they may as well head to feckin’ England’!

Let’s see if the luck holds, eh? Sláinte!

Arizona +1

 

[Lord Guts]

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 2-1​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
View attachment 13136

Ah, before I start crowin’ about the brilliance of me Shamlock of the Week, I’ve got to vent about that feckin’ disaster of a bad beat down in New Orleans. Jaysus, lads, I’ve taken some rough ones in me day - bad beats, I mean, not the other sort (though I did visit New Orleans once, but that’s a story for another time).

Anyway, bein’ down by double digits and scorin’ a garbage-time touchdown for a backdoor cover—that’s shitty enough when you’re on the wrong side, but at least it’s understandable. But feck me sideways—having the under and seein’ the team with the lead run an end-around for 75 feckin’ yards, with Taysom bleedin’ Hill, just tryin’ to run out the clock, only to score? That’s pure torture. Lads, we didn’t just lose that bet—we got a John Holmes-level screwin’, without so much as a drop of lube.

Right, off me soapbox! How ’bout them Cowgirls, eh? Woohoo—or is it Yeehaw? Feck, I don’t need to know what your wives sound like, lads. Keep that noise in the bedroom, ya perverted bastards.

I told ya Jerrah’s boys were gonna get ploughed, didn’t I? Hope you’re enjoyin’ the winnings - don’t blow it all in one spot, mind. Then again, who am I kiddin’? You lot probably threw it all on last night’s Central Michigan vs Western Michigan game and took the over 54.5, didn’t ya? Ah well, keep chancin’ your arm, boys. Sláinte!

Right, lads, let’s get on with it then. This week’s Shamlock pick is Arizona +1. Or if ye fancy, take the moneyline.

Either way, the Cardinals’ll be enjoyin’ their trip to that dreary hole called Seattle. Jaysus, with weather like that, they may as well head to feckin’ England’!

Let’s see if the luck holds, eh? Sláinte!

Arizona +1

View: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DCoVNp1y5fh/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

 

[The Picker]

Week 12 Results

Another bad week for the picker. Across the models. It did have a couple nice calls, Carolina and Dallas. But that was about it. Model 1 did tie model two now. But all three pickers are now under 50%. Lots of Red on the board this week. Peaking ahead to next week, I agree with about 8 of its picks. So we'll see.

On to week 13....

Original


Model 1


Model 2

 

[The Picker]

Week 12 Shamlock's Efficiency Rankings

​

Ah, lads, what a shite week that was all around. The power rankings had their worst showin’ yet, goin’ 7-6. Still a winner pickin’ games straight up, mind ya, but Jaysus, that was a struggle. A couple o’ games don’t go its way, and suddenly it’s straight to feckin’ Loserville.
The Chiefs? Queefin’ all over themselves down in Cackalacky. And those damn Nordics? Feckin’ around with the Cubs! Sure, those little bastards can get feisty if you don’t let ‘em know who’s in charge right away. That one was closer than it should’ve been.

And how ‘bout them Big Cats from Detroit? The efficiency just keeps improvin’ every bleedin’ week. Then there’s the Birds in Philly, runnin’ amok all over the field—who even needs to fly? Meanwhile, up in Buffalo, the Bison are just starin’ down the snow, darin’ lads to step foot on their turf.

And then... then ya’ve got the Cowgirls out searchin’ for their Cowboys, while the midgets are huntin’ for their lost Giants, who—by the way—ran into some Cubs out lookin’ for their Mama Bears. Pathetic, the lot of them. Feckin’ hopeless!

​

Biggest Ladder Langers for Week 13
Ah, top o’ the Ladder Langers this week are the Packers, jumpin’ 12 spots! Biggest langers of the week, no doubt. Sure, playin’ a 49ers team low-crawlin’ out of the infirmary’ll do that for ya. But they’ve a big one this day of thanks and givin’ in frigid Lambeau—will the Tuna freeze up?

Next, the Panthers of Carolina leap 11 spots to number 20. That Bryce Young, he’s finally playin’ like he’s got a career to save. Over the last four weeks, he’s throwin’ 61.6%, 5 TDs to 3 INTs. Not bad for the lad, but let’s be honest, their ladder’s still a long one—and that’s not exactly a compliment.

And then we’ve the salty Pirates of Tampa’s Bay, climbin’ 10 spots. Mikey’s back, just in the nick of time, and it shows. Sure, everyone loves a good cutlet, don’t they?

Now for the Plungers:
The Sheep of LA—feck me, lads, that was a proper shearin’. I reckon Mr. Barkley’s still chasin’ them around with the clippers. It was a massacre in the City of Angels. Bad day to be a Lamb, indeed.

Next, the Steelers, droppin’ 9 spots this week. Talk about a mistake on the lake! Those lads dropped their pants while the Dawgs savored a Winston. Embarrassin’, it was.

And finally, the Patsies are back, lads. Sure, they’d been away for a while, but now? They’re nothin’ more than a big ol’ shite sandwich—overloaded with Mayo, no less. Jaysus, it’s grim for them. Maye Day…Maye Day!

Sláinte, and here’s to Week 13 bringin’ more madness!

​

 

[Dingleberry]

@everyone This thread will be stickied now so it doesn't get lost with all the new odds being posted.

If you are betting, these projections are worth following. Even when they don't hit, they are interesting as shit.

 

[The Picker]

Week 13 Predictions

Happy Thanksgiving Everybody. Hope your Day is filled with Joy with your Family enjoying Food, Football and Beer (Spirits or your choice of beverages)!

Best day of the year!

Turkey Day Football:

Chi/Det: The Detroit Lions, riding a nine-game winning streak and boasting a 10-1 record, host the struggling Chicago Bears (4-7) this Sunday. Detroit's offense has been explosive, averaging 31.5 points per game (ppg) and 410.25 yards per game (ypg) over the past month. Their defense has been equally impressive, allowing just 12.25 ppg and 274.25 ypg in the same span. In contrast, Chicago's offense has faltered, managing only 14.5 ppg and 293 ypg, while their defense has surrendered 24.5 ppg and 374 ypg.

A key factor in this matchup is Detroit's efficiency on third downs, converting 48% of their attempts, compared to Chicago's 35%. Additionally, the Lions have a turnover differential of +8, highlighting their ability to capitalize on opponents' mistakes, whereas the Bears sit at -5.

Given these disparities, Detroit is well-positioned to cover the 10.5-point spread. The over/under of 48.5 points seems attainable, considering the Lions' scoring prowess. Shamlock's Efficiency Ratings have Detroit at 1st and Chicago at 30th. Even the leprechaun would agree this matchup heavily favors the home team.

NY/Dal: The New York Giants (2-9) are set to face the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) on Thanksgiving Day, with Dallas favored by 2.5 points and an over/under of 39. Over the past month, the Giants have struggled offensively, averaging just 16 points per game (ppg) and 326.75 yards per game (ypg). Their defense hasn't fared much better, allowing 25.75 ppg and 385 ypg. The Cowboys, while slightly better on offense with 17.75 ppg and 311 ypg, have been porous defensively, surrendering 30.25 ppg and 365.25 ypg.

A significant factor in this matchup is the uncertainty surrounding Giants' quarterback Tommy DeVito, who is dealing with forearm soreness and is not "100 percent" to play.

This could further hamper an already struggling offense. On the other side, the Cowboys are obviously without Dak, leaving Cooper Rush to lead the offense.

Given the offensive struggles and key injuries on both sides, this game could be a low-scoring affair. The over/under of 39 points seems optimistic, and taking the under might be the prudent play here. A terrible matchup between two awful teams that might turn out to be competitive due to sheer ineptness. Got to roll with the Boys here and would lean under.

Mia/GB: The Miami Dolphins, riding a three-game winning streak, are set to face the Green Bay Packers as the premier game on Turkey Day. With the Dolphins' recent success, they are 5-6 on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in. The Packers, standing at 8-3 and third in the NFC North, hold the second wild card spot in the NFC.

In terms of team performance, the Dolphins have averaged 334.25 yards and 29.5 points per game over the past month, while allowing 312.25 yards and 19.75 points per game. The Packers have averaged 381 yards and 25.5 points per game, allowing 320.75 yards and 20 points per game in the same period. Notably, the Packers' defense has been effective, ranking 13th in yards per play allowed (5.3), which could challenge the Dolphins' offense.

Weather conditions at Lambeau Field on game day are expected to be brisk and chilly with considerable cloudiness, a high of 31 and a low of 18. This makes me question the Dolphins ability to be competitive. Its not quite KC last January but its not South Beach either. But the Fins need this one and getting 3.5 points from a lesser team, IMO is tough to lay off. Unless of course that under 32 degrees scares you off. Which is understandable.

New England: Blah. A shit game between two shit teams. Don't feel like writing about it.

Head Scratchers: Based on how the teams have played in the games that would normally stand out i.e. LV at KC, Sea at NY etc... you can see why the picker is going the way it is. THe Chiefs let everyone hang around as an example. It doesn't know Minshew is probably out for Vegas etc...

Game of the Week: Well this one is a no brainer. Philly heads to Baltimore. This should be awesome. Hell we might see 500 yards of rushing offense between the teams. Quick someone call Sammy Baugh he'd love this one.

Over the past month, the Eagles have averaged 31.25 points per game while allowing just 16.75 points, churning out a robust offense and a stingy defense. In contrast, the Ravens have scored an average of 30.5 points per game and conceded 21.25 points, indicating a potent offense but a slightly more vulnerable defense.

A key factor in this game will be the Eagles' ability to exploit the Ravens' defensive weaknesses. The Eagles have been effective in generating yards per play, averaging 5.9, compared to the Ravens' 5.5 over the past four games. Additionally, the Eagles' defense has been more efficient, allowing only 4.7 yards per play, whereas the Ravens have allowed 5.5 yards per play. This suggests the Eagles may have an edge in both offensive production and defensive resilience.

In terms of efficiency, the Eagles' offense has been more productive, requiring fewer yards per point scored (13.3) compared to the Ravens' 22.0. Defensively, the Eagles also hold an advantage, with 16.9 yards allowed per point against, while the Ravens allow 13.3. These statistics indicate that the Eagles are more efficient on both sides of the ball (no surprise), which could be a decisive factor in the outcome of this game. I like the Eagles and the points here with the Ravens coming off a tough physical battle with the Chargers and all the hype surrounding the Harbough Bowl.

 

[The Picker]

@everyone This thread will be stickied now so it doesn't get lost with all the new odds being posted.

If you are betting, these projections are worth following. Even when they don't hit, they are interesting as shit.

Thanks Dingle. I don't know if I should be offended or be so proud as to have a tear drop roll out of my eye with you comparing my work to shit!

I need to ponder this....

 

[Tony2046]

Week 13 Predictions

Happy Thanksgiving Everybody. Hope your Day is filled with Joy with your Family enjoying Food, Football and Beer (Spirits or your choice of beverages)!

Best day of the year!

Turkey Day Football:

Chi/Det: The Detroit Lions, riding a nine-game winning streak and boasting a 10-1 record, host the struggling Chicago Bears (4-7) this Sunday. Detroit's offense has been explosive, averaging 31.5 points per game (ppg) and 410.25 yards per game (ypg) over the past month. Their defense has been equally impressive, allowing just 12.25 ppg and 274.25 ypg in the same span. In contrast, Chicago's offense has faltered, managing only 14.5 ppg and 293 ypg, while their defense has surrendered 24.5 ppg and 374 ypg.

A key factor in this matchup is Detroit's efficiency on third downs, converting 48% of their attempts, compared to Chicago's 35%. Additionally, the Lions have a turnover differential of +8, highlighting their ability to capitalize on opponents' mistakes, whereas the Bears sit at -5.

Given these disparities, Detroit is well-positioned to cover the 10.5-point spread. The over/under of 48.5 points seems attainable, considering the Lions' scoring prowess. Shamlock's Efficiency Ratings have Detroit at 1st and Chicago at 30th. Even the leprechaun would agree this matchup heavily favors the home team.

NY/Dal: The New York Giants (2-9) are set to face the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) on Thanksgiving Day, with Dallas favored by 2.5 points and an over/under of 39. Over the past month, the Giants have struggled offensively, averaging just 16 points per game (ppg) and 326.75 yards per game (ypg). Their defense hasn't fared much better, allowing 25.75 ppg and 385 ypg. The Cowboys, while slightly better on offense with 17.75 ppg and 311 ypg, have been porous defensively, surrendering 30.25 ppg and 365.25 ypg.

A significant factor in this matchup is the uncertainty surrounding Giants' quarterback Tommy DeVito, who is dealing with forearm soreness and is not "100 percent" to play.

This could further hamper an already struggling offense. On the other side, the Cowboys are obviously without Dak, leaving Cooper Rush to lead the offense.

Given the offensive struggles and key injuries on both sides, this game could be a low-scoring affair. The over/under of 39 points seems optimistic, and taking the under might be the prudent play here. A terrible matchup between two awful teams that might turn out to be competitive due to sheer ineptness. Got to roll with the Boys here and would lean under.

Mia/GB: The Miami Dolphins, riding a three-game winning streak, are set to face the Green Bay Packers as the premier game on Turkey Day. With the Dolphins' recent success, they are 5-6 on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in. The Packers, standing at 8-3 and third in the NFC North, hold the second wild card spot in the NFC.

In terms of team performance, the Dolphins have averaged 334.25 yards and 29.5 points per game over the past month, while allowing 312.25 yards and 19.75 points per game. The Packers have averaged 381 yards and 25.5 points per game, allowing 320.75 yards and 20 points per game in the same period. Notably, the Packers' defense has been effective, ranking 13th in yards per play allowed (5.3), which could challenge the Dolphins' offense.

Weather conditions at Lambeau Field on game day are expected to be brisk and chilly with considerable cloudiness, a high of 31 and a low of 18. This makes me question the Dolphins ability to be competitive. Its not quite KC last January but its not South Beach either. But the Fins need this one and getting 3.5 points from a lesser team, IMO is tough to lay off. Unless of course that under 32 degrees scares you off. Which is understandable.

New England: Blah. A shit game between two shit teams. Don't feel like writing about it.

Head Scratchers: Based on how the teams have played in the games that would normally stand out i.e. LV at KC, Sea at NY etc... you can see why the picker is going the way it is. THe Chiefs let everyone hang around as an example. It doesn't know Minshew is probably out for Vegas etc...

Game of the Week: Well this one is a no brainer. Philly heads to Baltimore. This should be awesome. Hell we might see 500 yards of rushing offense between the teams. Quick someone call Sammy Baugh he'd love this one.

Over the past month, the Eagles have averaged 31.25 points per game while allowing just 16.75 points, churning out a robust offense and a stingy defense. In contrast, the Ravens have scored an average of 30.5 points per game and conceded 21.25 points, indicating a potent offense but a slightly more vulnerable defense.

A key factor in this game will be the Eagles' ability to exploit the Ravens' defensive weaknesses. The Eagles have been effective in generating yards per play, averaging 5.9, compared to the Ravens' 5.5 over the past four games. Additionally, the Eagles' defense has been more efficient, allowing only 4.7 yards per play, whereas the Ravens have allowed 5.5 yards per play. This suggests the Eagles may have an edge in both offensive production and defensive resilience.

In terms of efficiency, the Eagles' offense has been more productive, requiring fewer yards per point scored (13.3) compared to the Ravens' 22.0. Defensively, the Eagles also hold an advantage, with 16.9 yards allowed per point against, while the Ravens allow 13.3. These statistics indicate that the Eagles are more efficient on both sides of the ball (no surprise), which could be a decisive factor in the outcome of this game. I like the Eagles and the points here with the Ravens coming off a tough physical battle with the Chargers and all the hype surrounding the Harbough Bowl.

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Good stuff Picker. Thanks

 

[Tony2046]

Thanks Dingle. I don't know if I should be offended or be so proud as to have a tear drop roll out of my eye with you comparing my work to shit!

I need to ponder this....

Be proud. Your stuff is must read material.

 

[Kontradiction]

Be proud. Your stuff is must read material.

I’ve built some parlays around it and actually won some money. The parlay odds, at least for me, have been better to hit if I’m building a 3-legger at the most based on this data.

Last week’s didn’t hit, but I was expecting a tough day for @The Picker because of all the divisional games. Divisional weeks are exceptionally tough to predict.

 

[Lord Guts]

I'm broke

 

[mgcolby]

I'm broke

We can start a club. I'll be the meathead in charge.

 

[mgcolby]

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 2-2​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona - +1 Boo Murray
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains


Pure shite day for the red birds, wasn’t it? Murray out there all confused, throwin’ a touchdown to the wrong feckin’ bird! And that oul’ shit kicker the Patriots banished to the desert flyin’ the ball to the right. Someone should’ve told the lads from Arizona that the bye week was over!

Sittin’ at 500% is no place to be, my friends. Though, I suppose it’s better than bein’ under it. Still, I’ll do better for ya, lads, I promise.

Right, let’s see if we can cash another ticket and refill those pots o’ gold. I tell ya, it’s been a tricky week, tryin’ to land on me Shamlock. After plenty of pontificatin’ and diggin’ through the stats, here it is:

Shamlock of the Week:

Pittsburgh +3
Another wee olive branch: Buccaneers -6
Let’s get it, lads! Sláinte!