Week 18 Predictions
Well here we are the bitter sweet week 18. Hold on one second while I wipe a way this tear. Ok, got my composure back. So many things going on with this week. Sadness for those of us who's team is not moving on to the playoffs. And the excitement of a 10 year old Christmas for the other 14 teams. Good luck to you fans!
I decided to let it ride with the teams that are sitting there starters. Here are the teams I am aware of that are resting their starters:
KC
Buffalo
Houston
Philly
Rams
Out of these teams the only game that gives me pause when I look at the spread is the Houston game. They are getting 4.5 points but the picker has them losing with their starters. I think the lines on the rest of the games is understandable. Maybe Philly.
The OG of Pickers is dragging its leg to the finish line here with no hop of finishing at 500 for the regular season. It needs 22 wins to reach 500 with only 16 games left to be played. I haven't done the math to see if there is a chance it could reach 500 with a strong playoff run. I will work that math next week.
Model 1 comes into the final week with a 100-91-1 record at a 52%. Needing
9 wins to maintain. 10-12 wins puts it in the 53-54% range. A 14 win week, which would be epic, is needed to meet the season goal of 55%. Not holding my breath but holding out hope for a 9-10 win week.
Model 2 is one game above model 1 sitting at 101-90-1 53% needing 9 wins to maintain as well. It needs a 13 win week to hit the 55% goal. Again that would be epic but again with all the weird shit this week tough to imagine it has its best week. But who knows shit happens.
Well lets get on with it!
Saturday Football
Cleveland @ Baltimore
This matchup looks like a David versus Goliath scenario, but with Cleveland wielding a dull slingshot. The Browns’ offense has been downright dismal over the past month, averaging a paltry 7.5 points per game on just 278.75 total yards. That’s not exactly the kind of production you bring to a game against a Ravens defense giving up a mere 253.5 yards and 14.25 points per game. Add to that Baltimore’s 6.9 yards per play on offense, and you start to wonder if this spread is generous to Cleveland.
The Ravens have been firing on all cylinders offensively, averaging nearly 30 points per game while boasting a red zone efficiency of 74.2%. If they sniff the end zone, they’re punching it in. Meanwhile, the Browns’ red zone defense has been as effective as a screen door on a submarine, allowing scores on 61.2% of trips. Pair that with Cleveland’s pedestrian 4.6 yards per play on offense, and it’s hard to see where the points will come from. **Zappe** Alert **Zappe** Alert....
But serious he can't play worse than the DRT or whatever the kids acronym is.
This one feels like a clinic in the making. Unless Cleveland miraculously unlocks some offensive firepower or Baltimore decides to take a quarter off, the Ravens should roll here. The only real question is whether they’ll cover the massive 17.5-point spread, but given Cleveland’s offensive woes, it’s hard not to lean toward a Baltimore blowout.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
This AFC North clash pits two teams trending in vastly different directions. The Bengals, averaging a scorching 29.5 points per game and 407 yards of offense over the past month, have found their stride offensively. Their red zone efficiency sits at a solid 66.7%, and with 5.8 yards per play, they’ve been tough to slow down. On the other side, the Steelers are averaging just 16.75 points and an anemic 277.25 yards per game. When you’re putting up fewer points than your defense is allowing (26), that’s a recipe for disaster against a team as hot as Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh’s struggles aren’t limited to offense, either. Their defense has been gashed for 377 yards per game and has shown cracks in the red zone, giving up scores on 56.1% of trips. Combine that with their 5.4 yards allowed per play, and you’ve got a defense likely to get overrun by Cincinnati’s dynamic attack. The Bengals’ ability to stretch the field and control the tempo should give Pittsburgh fits.
This one looks like a mismatch unless Pittsburgh can magically flip the script on both sides of the ball. With Cincinnati rolling and the Steelers looking every bit like a team out of answers, it’s hard to see the home team pulling this off. At -1.5, the spread feels like a gift for Bengals backers. I think Pittsburgh motivation is the going to be the same here regardless of the Ravens outcome. They can lock of the 5th seed and punch a ticket to Houston with a win. Losing this game guarantees a trip to either Buffalo or Baltimore. But that offense has looked really bad. The only chance they have is Cincy's defense isn't playing great. Still rolling with the Bengals here.
Playoff Implications
AFC
Kansas City @ Denver
With the Broncos fighting for their playoff lives, they should be ready to come in firing on all cylinders. A win and in scenario should mean they’ll be throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, at Kansas City to get it done. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are resting their starters, making this the perfect storm for Denver to capitalize on their opportunity.
Denver’s offense has been humming lately, averaging 30.75 points per game over the past month and piling up over 435 yards per contest. Bo Nix has found a groove, and with a red zone efficiency of 60.8%, the Broncos are making their trips inside the 20 count. The big question is whether their shaky defense, giving up 27.25 points per game during the same stretch, can keep Kansas City’s backups from hanging around.
The Chiefs, even without their starters, are no pushover. They will still be rolling out Wentz, Hardman, Hollywood and Hunt on Sunday. I haven't seen any reports on Hopkins, but you can only rest so many starters on a 53 man roster. Also, their defense has been rock-solid, allowing just 13.25 points per game over the past month. With key players on the bench for KC, and the playoffs on the line this is Denver’s game to lose. The spread at -10 may is steep, especially when counting on a rookie QB to play well under this pressure. Hard not to roll with the Chiefs and the points here. I think Denver likely punches their ticket into the playoffs with a fun trip to Buffalo to look forward too. I also like the over here.
Miami @ New York Jets
The Dolphins head to New York with a clear path to maintain playoff momentum, while the Jets continue their season of despair. Miami has been steady over the past month, putting up 23.25 points per game on 315 yards, with a defense allowing just 16.5 points and a red zone defensive efficiency of 46%. That kind of stinginess could spell trouble for a Jets offense struggling to find the end zone.
New York, meanwhile, has given up 29 points per game over the past month, a glaring issue made worse by their 60.3% defensive red zone efficiency. Offensively, it’s been a mixed bag, with the Jets putting up 351 yards per game but failing to translate that into consistent scoring. Their third-down efficiency remains a sore spot, and against a Miami team that has shown a knack for getting off the field, this matchup feels lopsided on paper.
The key for the Dolphins will be maintaining ball security and exploiting the Jets' weaknesses in coverage. Miami’s offense may not be lighting it up, but their ability to capitalize on defensive lapses should make the difference here. The predicted score gives Miami the edge, and unless the Jets find some offensive spark, expect the Dolphins to cover comfortably.
NFC
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
The Saints roll into Tampa as 13.5-point underdogs in a matchup that looks less like a showdown and more like a coronation for the Buccaneers. Over the past month, Tampa Bay has been firing on all cylinders, averaging a staggering 471.75 yards and 35 points per game. Their defense, meanwhile, has been stingy, allowing just 17.5 points per contest and ranking among the best in yards allowed at 253.25. If that wasn’t daunting enough, their red zone offense has been lights out, converting 66.7% of trips into touchdowns.
New Orleans, on the other hand, is limping into this one. Their offense has managed just 14.25 points per game over the past month, a meager output compounded by their inability to sustain drives. With 360.75 yards allowed per game, the Saints’ defense has been exposed repeatedly, and their red zone efficiency (58.5%) isn’t doing them any favors. This mismatch in both scoring and yardage makes the 13.5-point spread feel almost generous to New Orleans.
Unless Tampa decides to rest its starters (which they won't they have a chance for the 3 seed) or the Saints find some miracle offensive spark, this one has all the makings of a blowout. The Buccaneers’ balance on both sides of the ball should make this a comfortable cover. Shamlock’s leprechaun might call this one “a wee bit of a mismatch,” and frankly, he wouldn’t be wrong.
Washington @ Dallas
The Cowboys host the Commanders in a divisional matchup where Washington is favored by 4.5 points. Over the past month, the Commanders have been scorching on offense, averaging 32 points per game on 392.25 yards. Their red zone efficiency (61.8%) has been a key factor in turning drives into touchdowns. On defense, they’ve held opponents to 291.25 yards per game, making life difficult for even competent offenses. Not exactly what Dallas brings to the table right now.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are struggling to find consistency. They’ve put up just 20.75 points per game over the last four weeks while surrendering 26.5 points and 363.5 yards to opponents. Their red zone defense has been particularly porous, allowing touchdowns on 73.6% of trips. Combine that with an offense that’s managing just 5 yards per play, and it’s clear why they’re the underdog here. If the Cowboys can’t control the Commanders’ balanced attack, this game could get out of hand quickly.
Weather won’t be a factor in Dallas but the Cowboys’ recent form might as well be a storm cloud. Unless Dallas can suddenly flip a switch on both sides of the ball, this one feels like a comfortable win for Washington. The leprechaun might call this "a gift from the football gods," but don’t tell him—it’ll go straight to his wee head.
Chicago @ Green Bay
The Packers welcome the Bears to Lambeau with an 8.5-point cushion and a predicted blowout on deck. Over the past month, the Packers have been rolling offensively, averaging 30 points per game on 335.5 yards. Their efficiency has been notable, with 6.1 yards per play and a red zone conversion rate of 60.6%. On the defensive side, they’ve kept opponents in check, allowing just 309 yards per game and a respectable 22.75 points. If Green Bay maintains this balance, it’s going to be a long day for Chicago.
The Bears, meanwhile, have been sleepwalking on offense, managing a measly 11.25 points per game and just 251.75 yards over their last four outings. Their 4.6 yards per play isn’t fooling anyone, especially not a Packers defense that’s been better than average. Defensively, the Bears have been giving up 380.25 yards and 27 points per game, offering little resistance. Their red zone defense, at 46.7%, is solid but likely irrelevant against a Green Bay attack that has been punching in scores from just about everywhere.
Weather at Lambeau is expected to be cold but manageable—classic Wisconsin football weather. Unless the Bears discover a magical formula to jump-start their offense, this feels like a game where Green Bay flexes its muscle early and coasts late. As Shamlock might quip, “Even the leprechaun couldn’t sprinkle enough gold dust on this Bears team to make it competitive.” Take the Pack and don’t look back.
Seattle @ Los Angeles Rams
The Rams host the Seahawks in a divisional matchup that features a 6.5-point spread favoring Los Angeles. Over the past month, the Rams have been steady, averaging 22 points per game on 314.5 yards. Their defense has been a bright spot, allowing just 16.5 points per game and boasting a red zone defense that’s held opponents to a 47.2% conversion rate. If the Rams can continue their defensive efficiency, Seattle’s offense could be in for a frustrating afternoon.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging only 18.25 points over their last four games. Their 310.75 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play are respectable, but they’ve struggled to capitalize in key moments. Their red zone offense sits at 53.8%, which isn’t bad, but against a stingy Rams defense, those opportunities need to convert into touchdowns. On defense, Seattle has been better than advertised, holding teams to 19.5 points per game, but facing a Rams team that thrives on efficiency might stretch them thin.
With the Rams reportedly resting their starters, this one feels like it’ll come down to whether or not Seattle's offense can finish drives. The Rams' ability to control the tempo with their defense gives them the edge, though don’t be surprised if the Seahawks make it interesting late. I think Jimmy G can and will do enough to make this a close one, I'll give the nod to Los Angeles and the points here. They may even pull it off. I'm a little surprised they chose to sit their starters given they could lock up the 3rd see with a win and hosting Washinton or GB vs the alternative. Hosting Detroit or Minnesota.
SNF/GOTW
Minnesota @ Detroit
In what promises to be an offensive showcase, the Lions welcome the Vikings to Detroit as 2.5-point favorites in a game with a hefty 52.5-point total. Over the past month, Detroit’s offense has been scorching, averaging a league-best 37.5 points on 456.5 yards per game. Jared Goff and company are firing on all cylinders, with a red zone efficiency of 68.1%. However, their defense has struggled mightily due to injuries, surrendering 32.5 points per game, including a woeful 428.5 yards per contest. That’s a recipe for fireworks, not lockdown football.
The Vikings, meanwhile, have been nearly as lethal offensively, putting up 31.5 points per game over their last four outings while averaging 375.25 yards. Their defense has been much steadier than Detroit’s, allowing just 20.5 points per game and holding opponents to 353 yards per game. While their red zone defense isn’t elite at 56.5%, it’s considerably better than Detroit’s all-around struggles. If Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson find their rhythm early, the Lions
could be in for a long day on both sides of the ball. But we know Campbell's boys show up ready to play for the full tilt.
This one feel's like this will be a modern-day NFC North shootout. Detroit’s offense has the edge, but their defensive injuries make this spread tricky. The leprechaun might call this one a toss-up, but he’ll say, “A shootout in the Motor City? Don’t blink, or you’ll miss another touchdown.” Take the over and enjoy the show.
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