MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024
- Thread starter mgcolby
- Start date
The Picker
Active member
Shamlock's Wild Card Power Efficiency Rankings
Shite lads, last week handed me a proper lesson in humility when it comes to me power rankings. Seems these pansy lads out there puttin’ health over the sheer joy o’ buryin’ your opponent’s dicks in the dirt has made a right mess of things. All strategic, are they? Feck that, I say!
It bollixed me rankings so bad I thought I’d go back and sort which teams played their starters. But Jaysus, with some playin’ a quarter, some a single drive, and some nappin’ entirely, I threw me hands up. Feck it all, I said—Week 18 power rankings were final, and all them games voided.
Movin’ on to the playoffs, lads. From here on out, I’ll be rankin’ only the teams still in the hunt for the trophy. If you’re eliminated, you’re gone from the rankings faster than a pint on a thirsty Thursday. Simple as that.
Sláinte to the postseason chaos!
Shite lads, last week handed me a proper lesson in humility when it comes to me power rankings. Seems these pansy lads out there puttin’ health over the sheer joy o’ buryin’ your opponent’s dicks in the dirt has made a right mess of things. All strategic, are they? Feck that, I say!
It bollixed me rankings so bad I thought I’d go back and sort which teams played their starters. But Jaysus, with some playin’ a quarter, some a single drive, and some nappin’ entirely, I threw me hands up. Feck it all, I said—Week 18 power rankings were final, and all them games voided.
Movin’ on to the playoffs, lads. From here on out, I’ll be rankin’ only the teams still in the hunt for the trophy. If you’re eliminated, you’re gone from the rankings faster than a pint on a thirsty Thursday. Simple as that.
Sláinte to the postseason chaos!
The Picker
Active member
Wild Card Weekend Predictions
Here we go, its playoff time fellas! Lets see if we can cash in a bit here in the final few weeks of the season until the long drought begins. Some quick notes. I am only going to post the Model 2 picks, if Model 1 and Model 2 differ I will annotate it. Other wise they agree on what is displayed here. I will provide all three records each week in the results post. But its the Model 2 show and has been for a bit now.
As has been the case here is the spread differential record broken down.
Saturday Playoff Football
LA Chargers @ Houston
The Chargers roll into Houston as 2.5-point favorites, riding a four-game streak of offensive fireworks. Averaging 31.25 points and 371.75 yards per game over the past month, this team knows how to light up the scoreboard. While the Chargers have been lighting up the scoreboard they have struggled a bit in the red zone converting just 56% of their opportunities. However, their defense has been less inspiring, allowing 23.5 points per game and struggling to stop the run—a vulnerability the Texans could exploit.
Houston, on the other hand, has been stuck in neutral offensively. With just 13.67 points per game and a paltry 234.33 yards on average, it’s hard to see them keeping pace with the high-octane Chargers. Defensively, they’ve allowed 343.67 yards per game, including a troubling 63.6% red zone success rate to opponents. Their pass rush has been inconsistent as of late, which could leave Herbert all the time he needs to carve them up. One area the Texans have been good in is 3rd down defense, ranking 6th in the league.
The Texans will need a small miracle—or at least a meltdown from the Chargers—to keep this one competitive. Los Angeles simply needs to avoid stepping on their own toes, a bad habit of theirs in recent years. If the Chargers stick to their script, the leprechaun would say it’s a done deal: Houston might want to pack it in early. Definitely on the Chargers here and lean over.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
The Steelers head into Baltimore as massive 9.5-point underdogs, and let’s just say the odds don’t look great for the boys in black and gold. Pittsburgh has averaged a meager 14.25 points per game over the past month while surrendering a staggering 27.25 points and 380.50 yards per contest. Their inability to stop the run or generate consistent pressure has been glaring, which spells disaster against a Ravens offense firing on all cylinders.
Baltimore, meanwhile, has been borderline unstoppable. Averaging 33.75 points and a league-best 433 yards per game over the last four weeks, Lamar Jackson and company have hit their stride at the perfect time. The Ravens' defense isn’t too shabby either, holding opponents to just 10.75 points per game while allowing under 250 yards. Add in their stellar 74.2% red zone conversion rate, and you have a recipe for dominance.
Unless the Steelers channel some 1970s Steel Curtain energy, this one feels like a formality. Baltimore is playing like a team with something to prove, and Pittsburgh’s an easy target. This one could be over early when you factor in the Steelers recent play along with their recent lack of playoff success.
Sunday Playoff Football
Denver @ Buffalo
The Broncos head into Buffalo as 8.5-point underdogs in what looks like a clash of mismatched firepower. Over the past month, Denver has been no slouch offensively, averaging 27.33 points and 292.33 yards per game. But their Achilles’ heel remains a leaky defense allowing a brutal 396.33 yards and 25.67 points per contest. Against a Bills offense that’s been bulldozing opponents, this one feels like a steep climb for the visitors.
Buffalo, meanwhile, is playing on another level offensively, averaging a scorching 38.50 points per game over the last month with a staggering 419 yards per outing. Josh Allen has been surgical in the red zone, guiding the Bills to a 71.6% red zone success rate. Defensively, Buffalo’s been less stellar, allowing over 30 points per game during the same stretch, but Denver’s middling offense doesn’t inspire much confidence in exploiting those cracks with a rookie QB in frigid Buffalo.
Unless Denver’s defense can tighten up overnight—and the odds of that are slim—Buffalo should roll here. The leprechaun might have some fun pointing out the 62.5% red zone conversion rate Denver has allowed lately, which is just asking for trouble against a Bills squad thriving in high-leverage moments. A blowout feels more likely than not.
Green Bay @ Philadelphia
The Packers head into Philadelphia as 4.5-point underdogs in what should be a compelling matchup. Over the past month, Green Bay’s offense has been productive, averaging 27.25 points and 343.75 yards per game. However, their defense has struggled to keep pace, giving up 23.75 points and a less-than-ideal 60% red zone conversion rate. Not exactly the blueprint you want when facing an Eagles offense firing on all cylinders.
Speaking of the Eagles, they’ve been dominant lately, averaging 30.75 points per game while holding opponents to just 18 points and 275.25 yards. That defensive performance, bolstered by a stellar 50% opponent red zone efficiency, could spell trouble for the Packers, who have been efficient in converting red zone opportunities but might find the sledding tougher here.
Unless the Packers’ defense can find a way to tighten up—perhaps a big ask given recent form—this feels like a game where Philly’s balance on both sides of the ball carries the day. While the leprechaun might point out that Green Bay can make this interesting if they lean on their offense to keep up, this one looks like another notch in the Eagles’ belt as they eye another Super Bowl run. I think this line is just about spot on. If it stays at 4.5 I would take the Pack. If it drops below 4 I would jump on Philly. I think the best play here is the over 46.
Washington @ Tampa Bay
The Washington Commanders are set to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a highly anticipated playoff matchup. In their previous encounter on September 8, the Buccaneers secured a 37-20 victory over the Commanders.
Over the past month, the Buccaneers have been formidable, averaging 34.75 points per game while allowing 19 points per game. Their offense has been particularly potent, averaging 465.5 yards per game, with a balanced attack of 6.2 yards per play on the ground and 5.5 yards per play through the air. In the red zone, they've converted 65.7% of their opportunities into touchdowns.
The Commanders, meanwhile, have averaged 30 points per game and allowed 16 points per game during the same period. Their offense has produced 335.5 yards per game, with 5.7 yards per play rushing and 5.4 yards per play passing. Defensively, they've held opponents to a 60.4% red zone touchdown conversion rate.
Something has to give here. Tampa Bay’s efficiency in the red zone could be the deciding factor, while Washington’s ability to contain Tampa's scoring will be tested. Another game where an experienced QB faces a rookie QB making his first playoff start on the road. I have to go with the home team here and laying the chalk.
Monday Night Playoff Football
Minnesota @ Los Angeles Rams
The Minnesota Vikings head to sunny Los Angeles to take on the Rams in the Wild Card round at SoFi Stadium. The Vikings, coming off a 31-9 loss to the Detroit Lions, are looking to rebound after a lackluster offensive performance where quarterback Sam Darnold posted season lows in completion rate (43.9%) and passing yards (166).
Los Angeles, meanwhile, has leaned heavily on its defense to stay competitive, holding teams to just 16.5 points per game and 314.5 total yards over the past month. Their red zone defense is particularly noteworthy, limiting opponents to a 50% success rate. Offensively, they’ve been steady but unspectacular, averaging 22 points per game and 5.4 yards per play. The key will be whether the Rams’ front seven can keep Kirk Cousins uncomfortable and prevent Justin Jefferson from breaking the game wide open.
With the Rams as slight 1.5-point underdogs, this one could hinge on who wins the battle at the line of scrimmage. If the Vikings’ offensive line struggles against the Rams’ pass rush, it could be a long day for Darnold. On the flip side, Minnesota’s defense needs to step up in the red zone to have a shot at stealing a win on the road. Keep an eye on turnovers—they’ve been a difference-maker for both teams this season. I'm on the home team moneyline here.
Model 2
Here we go, its playoff time fellas! Lets see if we can cash in a bit here in the final few weeks of the season until the long drought begins. Some quick notes. I am only going to post the Model 2 picks, if Model 1 and Model 2 differ I will annotate it. Other wise they agree on what is displayed here. I will provide all three records each week in the results post. But its the Model 2 show and has been for a bit now.
As has been the case here is the spread differential record broken down.
Saturday Playoff Football
LA Chargers @ Houston
The Chargers roll into Houston as 2.5-point favorites, riding a four-game streak of offensive fireworks. Averaging 31.25 points and 371.75 yards per game over the past month, this team knows how to light up the scoreboard. While the Chargers have been lighting up the scoreboard they have struggled a bit in the red zone converting just 56% of their opportunities. However, their defense has been less inspiring, allowing 23.5 points per game and struggling to stop the run—a vulnerability the Texans could exploit.
Houston, on the other hand, has been stuck in neutral offensively. With just 13.67 points per game and a paltry 234.33 yards on average, it’s hard to see them keeping pace with the high-octane Chargers. Defensively, they’ve allowed 343.67 yards per game, including a troubling 63.6% red zone success rate to opponents. Their pass rush has been inconsistent as of late, which could leave Herbert all the time he needs to carve them up. One area the Texans have been good in is 3rd down defense, ranking 6th in the league.
The Texans will need a small miracle—or at least a meltdown from the Chargers—to keep this one competitive. Los Angeles simply needs to avoid stepping on their own toes, a bad habit of theirs in recent years. If the Chargers stick to their script, the leprechaun would say it’s a done deal: Houston might want to pack it in early. Definitely on the Chargers here and lean over.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
The Steelers head into Baltimore as massive 9.5-point underdogs, and let’s just say the odds don’t look great for the boys in black and gold. Pittsburgh has averaged a meager 14.25 points per game over the past month while surrendering a staggering 27.25 points and 380.50 yards per contest. Their inability to stop the run or generate consistent pressure has been glaring, which spells disaster against a Ravens offense firing on all cylinders.
Baltimore, meanwhile, has been borderline unstoppable. Averaging 33.75 points and a league-best 433 yards per game over the last four weeks, Lamar Jackson and company have hit their stride at the perfect time. The Ravens' defense isn’t too shabby either, holding opponents to just 10.75 points per game while allowing under 250 yards. Add in their stellar 74.2% red zone conversion rate, and you have a recipe for dominance.
Unless the Steelers channel some 1970s Steel Curtain energy, this one feels like a formality. Baltimore is playing like a team with something to prove, and Pittsburgh’s an easy target. This one could be over early when you factor in the Steelers recent play along with their recent lack of playoff success.
Sunday Playoff Football
Denver @ Buffalo
The Broncos head into Buffalo as 8.5-point underdogs in what looks like a clash of mismatched firepower. Over the past month, Denver has been no slouch offensively, averaging 27.33 points and 292.33 yards per game. But their Achilles’ heel remains a leaky defense allowing a brutal 396.33 yards and 25.67 points per contest. Against a Bills offense that’s been bulldozing opponents, this one feels like a steep climb for the visitors.
Buffalo, meanwhile, is playing on another level offensively, averaging a scorching 38.50 points per game over the last month with a staggering 419 yards per outing. Josh Allen has been surgical in the red zone, guiding the Bills to a 71.6% red zone success rate. Defensively, Buffalo’s been less stellar, allowing over 30 points per game during the same stretch, but Denver’s middling offense doesn’t inspire much confidence in exploiting those cracks with a rookie QB in frigid Buffalo.
Unless Denver’s defense can tighten up overnight—and the odds of that are slim—Buffalo should roll here. The leprechaun might have some fun pointing out the 62.5% red zone conversion rate Denver has allowed lately, which is just asking for trouble against a Bills squad thriving in high-leverage moments. A blowout feels more likely than not.
Green Bay @ Philadelphia
The Packers head into Philadelphia as 4.5-point underdogs in what should be a compelling matchup. Over the past month, Green Bay’s offense has been productive, averaging 27.25 points and 343.75 yards per game. However, their defense has struggled to keep pace, giving up 23.75 points and a less-than-ideal 60% red zone conversion rate. Not exactly the blueprint you want when facing an Eagles offense firing on all cylinders.
Speaking of the Eagles, they’ve been dominant lately, averaging 30.75 points per game while holding opponents to just 18 points and 275.25 yards. That defensive performance, bolstered by a stellar 50% opponent red zone efficiency, could spell trouble for the Packers, who have been efficient in converting red zone opportunities but might find the sledding tougher here.
Unless the Packers’ defense can find a way to tighten up—perhaps a big ask given recent form—this feels like a game where Philly’s balance on both sides of the ball carries the day. While the leprechaun might point out that Green Bay can make this interesting if they lean on their offense to keep up, this one looks like another notch in the Eagles’ belt as they eye another Super Bowl run. I think this line is just about spot on. If it stays at 4.5 I would take the Pack. If it drops below 4 I would jump on Philly. I think the best play here is the over 46.
Washington @ Tampa Bay
The Washington Commanders are set to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a highly anticipated playoff matchup. In their previous encounter on September 8, the Buccaneers secured a 37-20 victory over the Commanders.
Over the past month, the Buccaneers have been formidable, averaging 34.75 points per game while allowing 19 points per game. Their offense has been particularly potent, averaging 465.5 yards per game, with a balanced attack of 6.2 yards per play on the ground and 5.5 yards per play through the air. In the red zone, they've converted 65.7% of their opportunities into touchdowns.
The Commanders, meanwhile, have averaged 30 points per game and allowed 16 points per game during the same period. Their offense has produced 335.5 yards per game, with 5.7 yards per play rushing and 5.4 yards per play passing. Defensively, they've held opponents to a 60.4% red zone touchdown conversion rate.
Something has to give here. Tampa Bay’s efficiency in the red zone could be the deciding factor, while Washington’s ability to contain Tampa's scoring will be tested. Another game where an experienced QB faces a rookie QB making his first playoff start on the road. I have to go with the home team here and laying the chalk.
Monday Night Playoff Football
Minnesota @ Los Angeles Rams
The Minnesota Vikings head to sunny Los Angeles to take on the Rams in the Wild Card round at SoFi Stadium. The Vikings, coming off a 31-9 loss to the Detroit Lions, are looking to rebound after a lackluster offensive performance where quarterback Sam Darnold posted season lows in completion rate (43.9%) and passing yards (166).
Los Angeles, meanwhile, has leaned heavily on its defense to stay competitive, holding teams to just 16.5 points per game and 314.5 total yards over the past month. Their red zone defense is particularly noteworthy, limiting opponents to a 50% success rate. Offensively, they’ve been steady but unspectacular, averaging 22 points per game and 5.4 yards per play. The key will be whether the Rams’ front seven can keep Kirk Cousins uncomfortable and prevent Justin Jefferson from breaking the game wide open.
With the Rams as slight 1.5-point underdogs, this one could hinge on who wins the battle at the line of scrimmage. If the Vikings’ offensive line struggles against the Rams’ pass rush, it could be a long day for Darnold. On the flip side, Minnesota’s defense needs to step up in the red zone to have a shot at stealing a win on the road. Keep an eye on turnovers—they’ve been a difference-maker for both teams this season. I'm on the home team moneyline here.
Model 2
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Damn, the model really likes the Ravens. I have human nature, however, and have to disagree. I think the Steelers can cover a 9.5 point spread. Or maybe I just hope they do because I dropped some cash on them. I don’t disagree with the rest.
It's really about Pickens. I was posting on this in another thread. The Steelers 4 game losing streak tracks Pickens' injury perfectly, the first game between the two teams was a Steelers victory with Pickens having a bunch of catches, and this past loss looked as bad as it did because Pickens had 5 drops, some of those on plays that could have really changed that game.
No Zay Flowers either.
I don’t agree on the Ravens. I think they’ll Henry and dunk/dunk their way to submission before hoping Flowers comes back.
The Eagles are ripe for an upset if Hurts doesn’t play. If he does, and he’s not retarded like Tua is now, then I think they win. Don’t forget that Love is dealing with an elbow injury that sounds like a nerve since he’s having trouble gripping the ball.
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
It does and has all year mostly. The Steelers have no offense. The Ravens have been the best defense over the past 6 weeks. I'm with the picker in this one. I get it though. If there is a team that could scrap out a tough game it's the Steelers in a divisional game.
Did you take into account that Flowers production would be lost with the model? Just curious.
The Picker
Active member
Shamlock of Wild Card Weekend
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (6-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5
Week 18: GB -10
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Brnaches: 0-3 KC +10.5
Ah, lads, I’ll own this one—what a shite show. Them Cheeseheads from the Bay were supposed to stuff the Teddies and send ’em off to hibernation, but sure, it turns out the only ones nappin’ were Green Bay themselves. Jaysus, how did I not see this one comin’?
Grabbed me bratwurst, cracked open an Old Milwaukee, and sat there waitin’ for the laugher that never feckin’ happened. Instead, the Teddies must’ve decided to wake up for the first time since Week 8 and make a proper fool o’ me.
As for that Olive Branch, KC +10.5? Well, let’s just say I wish I’d grabbed the whole damn tree. No gold in the pot this week, lads, but sure, we’ll dust off and go again. Sláinte to better days ahead!
The Donkeys from Denver
The poor Donkeys are headin’ into the frigid land near Niagara, where the Buffalos’ll be gearin’ up for a proper stampede toward the City of Voodoo. The Donkeys? Well, they’ll be wise to step aside, unless they fancy bein’ trampled by Buffalos and pelted with them infamous flyin’ dildos. Sure, what else do you collect when you’re snowed in seven months a year?
The Donkeys’ season? Nixed today.
Buffalo -7.5
Sláinte to the stampede and another winning pick, lads!
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (6-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5
Week 18: GB -10
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Brnaches: 0-3 KC +10.5
Ah, lads, I’ll own this one—what a shite show. Them Cheeseheads from the Bay were supposed to stuff the Teddies and send ’em off to hibernation, but sure, it turns out the only ones nappin’ were Green Bay themselves. Jaysus, how did I not see this one comin’?
Grabbed me bratwurst, cracked open an Old Milwaukee, and sat there waitin’ for the laugher that never feckin’ happened. Instead, the Teddies must’ve decided to wake up for the first time since Week 8 and make a proper fool o’ me.
As for that Olive Branch, KC +10.5? Well, let’s just say I wish I’d grabbed the whole damn tree. No gold in the pot this week, lads, but sure, we’ll dust off and go again. Sláinte to better days ahead!
The Donkeys from Denver
The poor Donkeys are headin’ into the frigid land near Niagara, where the Buffalos’ll be gearin’ up for a proper stampede toward the City of Voodoo. The Donkeys? Well, they’ll be wise to step aside, unless they fancy bein’ trampled by Buffalos and pelted with them infamous flyin’ dildos. Sure, what else do you collect when you’re snowed in seven months a year?
The Donkeys’ season? Nixed today.
Buffalo -7.5
Sláinte to the stampede and another winning pick, lads!
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mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Sorry for the late reply. It does not.
Should have listened to the model.
The Picker
Active member
Wild Card Weekend Results
Not a great weekend for the Picker. The Chargers and Packers not showing up put a damper on things. As did Baker's fumble. It did go 3-3 so not a losing weekend just maintained the status quo. It continues to struggle with the over unders. Looks like that will end up below 50% on the season.
Not a great weekend for the Picker. The Chargers and Packers not showing up put a damper on things. As did Baker's fumble. It did go 3-3 so not a losing weekend just maintained the status quo. It continues to struggle with the over unders. Looks like that will end up below 50% on the season.
The Picker
Active member
Shamlock's Divisional Round Power Efficiency Rankings
Not a bad week for me power rankings, lads. A tidy 5-1—sure, that'll have ya kissin' the Blarney Stone or even Fat Mary at the end of the bar, who somehow slenders up with every pint you down.
Now, about them damn Bolts from Los Angeles… Jaysus, they went and pissed in me cheerios, didn’t they? Still, can’t be too mad, considerin’ me rankings are still holdin’ steady at a cheeky 69. Seems they’ve taken a likin’ to that number and won’t be movin’ off it anytime soon.
Sláinte to keepin’ it rollin’—and to Mary, I suppose!
Here are this week’s power rankings, lads. For those payin’ close attention, you might notice the efficiency ratings look a bit lower than usual. Don’t be fooled into thinkin’ these teams are all suddenly brilliant on the field.
The reason’s simple—there are only 8 teams left in the rankings. That means the worst possible rating a team could have is 8.0, which basically says they’re dead last in every feckin’ category. So, while the numbers might look a bit rosier, it doesn’t mean the football’s any prettier.
Now, on to the rankings. Let’s see how this lot stacks up!
Edit:
Ah, you feckin’ knuckleheads didn’t even notice I cocked up and forgot to count a week in me record, did ya? Jaysus, a right bunch of neanderthals, the lot of ya!
Well, it’s updated now, and I’ve got news for ya—it’s no longer sittin’ pretty at the fan favorite of 69%. Nah, we’ve bumped it up to a proper 70%! Sure, I’ll miss the cheeky nod to the ol’ favorite, but progress is progress, eh? Sláinte to keepin’ it rollin’!
Not a bad week for me power rankings, lads. A tidy 5-1—sure, that'll have ya kissin' the Blarney Stone or even Fat Mary at the end of the bar, who somehow slenders up with every pint you down.
Now, about them damn Bolts from Los Angeles… Jaysus, they went and pissed in me cheerios, didn’t they? Still, can’t be too mad, considerin’ me rankings are still holdin’ steady at a cheeky 69. Seems they’ve taken a likin’ to that number and won’t be movin’ off it anytime soon.
Sláinte to keepin’ it rollin’—and to Mary, I suppose!
The reason’s simple—there are only 8 teams left in the rankings. That means the worst possible rating a team could have is 8.0, which basically says they’re dead last in every feckin’ category. So, while the numbers might look a bit rosier, it doesn’t mean the football’s any prettier.
Now, on to the rankings. Let’s see how this lot stacks up!
Ah, you feckin’ knuckleheads didn’t even notice I cocked up and forgot to count a week in me record, did ya? Jaysus, a right bunch of neanderthals, the lot of ya!
Well, it’s updated now, and I’ve got news for ya—it’s no longer sittin’ pretty at the fan favorite of 69%. Nah, we’ve bumped it up to a proper 70%! Sure, I’ll miss the cheeky nod to the ol’ favorite, but progress is progress, eh? Sláinte to keepin’ it rollin’!
Attachments
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The under was printing some money in the WC round. We’ll be back this week.
The Picker
Active member
Divisional Round Playoff Predictions
Divisional round football. Really hoping for some good competitive games this week. But the Picker doesn't really have that in mind for a couple of them as you will see below. Some big spreads this week Detroit double digit favorites over Washington and the Chiefs 8.5 point favorites over the Texans. The picker really likes Baltimore up in frigid Buffalo. I will point out that the Ravens play, according to the picker is in that 7-point sweet spot that is doing very well this season at 9-2.
Saturday Divisional Round Football
Houston @ Kansas City
The Texans head to Kansas City in a matchup that seems lopsided on paper. Over the past month, Houston’s offense has been stuck in neutral, managing just 14.67 points per game while allowing 24 on defense. Combine that with their lackluster red zone efficiency (49.1%) against a Chiefs defense that’s allowing scores on just 51.9% of red zone trips, and it’s hard to imagine Houston keeping up in this one.
Kansas City’s offense, meanwhile, has been steady, averaging 24 points per game with 343.25 yards of offense over the past month. Their 5.1 yards per play on offense matches Houston’s mark, but the Chiefs’ defense has been the real separator, holding opponents to just 307.25 yards and 13.25 points per game. Kansas City’s ability to limit damage in the red zone and force opponents into long third downs has been key to their recent success.
Houston’s chances look even slimmer given their injuries. With a receiving corps struggling to get separation, the Texans may need a Herculean effort from their defense to keep this one close. I would be a miss if I didn't note that Joe Mixon missed Thursday's practice due to an ankle injury, that is something to keep an eye on leading up to the game. Kansas City is playing at home, and with Arrowhead’s notorious noise advantage, the Texans are facing an uphill battle to avoid a blowout. 8.5 Points is a lot to lay in a divisional round, but this Texans team, despite scoring 32 points they struggled moving the ball for large chunks of the game versus the Chargers. Then add in the balmy 22 degree weather forecast for Kansas City on Saturday has me rolling with the chalk in this one.
Washington @ Detroit
The Commanders head to Detroit in a matchup that promises fireworks, given the high-scoring tendencies of both teams. Over the past month, Washington has been surprisingly efficient on offense, putting up 29.67 points per game and averaging 349.67 yards. Their yards per play efficiency sits at a respectable 5.7, but the defense has struggled to match that output, allowing 25.33 points per game and giving up 351 yards on average. Allowing a middle of the road (Playoff Teams) average of 5.4 yards per play, but with a suspect red zone defense allowing touchdowns on 60.4% of trips, keeping Detroit off the scoreboard will be a tall order.
The Lions, on the other hand, have been an offensive juggernaut, leading the league over the past month with 36.75 points per game and an eye-popping 457.25 yards of offense per contest. They’re converting an impressive 69.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns and averaging 6.2 yards per play. Defensively, they’re giving up 27 points per game and 419.50 yards, which raises questions about whether they can consistently hold Washington's offense in check. But with their red zone defense allowing touchdowns just 50.9% of the time, Detroit may have enough to keep the Commanders at bay.
Both teams boast high-powered offenses, but Detroit’s edge lies in its ability to finish drives and protect home turf. While the Commanders have shown resilience, they’ll need to play a near-perfect game to keep pace. The Lions look poised to outlast Washington in a shootout, but if the Commanders can exploit Detroit’s shaky defensive yardage numbers, this one could get interesting late. I like the 10 points here and albeit a high 55 points for the over, but I think it hits. Both team's offenses are aggressive on 4th downs which should lead to several extended drives resulting in some bonus points.
Sunday Divisional Round Playoff Football
Los Angeles @ Philadelphia
The Rams head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in a clash where both teams' strengths—and weaknesses—will be tested. Over the past month, the Rams have averaged just 19 points per game and 300.67 yards of offense, struggling to finish drives with a red zone efficiency of only 52.4%. Defensively, though, they’ve been better, allowing just 16 points per game. However, giving up 351 yards per game could spell trouble against a Philadelphia team firing on all cylinders offensively.
The Eagles, meanwhile, have been a buzzsaw. Averaging 33.67 points per game over the last four weeks, they’ve also been holding opponents to just 18.67 points per contest. Their 57.4% red zone efficiency offensively is solid, and their defense allows only 266.33 yards per game, anchored by a dominant front seven that could feast on a Rams offensive line giving up pressure consistently. Philadelphia’s edge in yards per play (5.6 vs. 5.4) and defensive efficiency could be the deciding factor in this one.
For the Rams to stay competitive, they’ll need to win the battle in the trenches and figure out a way to finish drives—something they’ve struggled with recently. Overcome the historical struggles of teams traveling West to East and cold snowy conditions being called for on Sunday (34 and Snow) The Eagles, on the other hand, look primed to continue their offensive dominance and keep the pressure on an inconsistent Rams attack. Especially on the ground. Unless Los Angeles finds some magic, this game looks like another comfortable win for Philadelphia.
Baltimore @ Buffalo
The Ravens head to Buffalo for what should be the game of the week. With temperature's in the low teens with blistering lake effect snow in the forecast. This will be a true test for Lamar, IMO. I am still skeptical of playoff Lamar and this weather does nothing to subside any of my concerns. However, Baltimore’s offense has been electric over the past month, averaging 33.33 points per game on 429 yards, with a dominant 74.2% red zone efficiency. This is along with an insane 6.8 yards per play. For reference the league average tends to hover around the mid fives and no team has ever finished with a 7.0 or higher season average. Meanwhile, the defense has been lights out, allowing a stingy 9.67 points per game and just 252 yards per contest. With that kind of balance, the Ravens look poised to challenge a Bills team that has been shaky on defense lately.
Buffalo’s offense isn’t the issue—they’re averaging 37.33 points and 410.33 yards per game over the last four weeks. However, the defense has given up 25.67 points per game and nearly 400 yards, including struggles in the red zone where they’ve allowed opponents to score 57.4% of the time. Against a Ravens team firing on all cylinders, those defensive lapses could be the difference, especially if Baltimore continues to excel in limiting big plays and forcing field goals instead of touchdowns.
The Bills will need their defense to step up, particularly against a Ravens rushing attack that’s been carving teams apart. With the spread sitting at just -1, Vegas thinks this a true toss-up. But if Buffalo’s defense can’t figure things out, Baltimore might just roll into Orchard Park and walk out with a statement win. I lean Buffalo here because of the Lamar factor and the weather. I know Lamar has looked light years better in the pocket this season and factoring in Henry's presence, I still feel like this is Buffalo's game to lose. I am also aware of the beat down Buffalo sustained in Baltimore earlier in the season. Still lean Buffalo and I kind of really like the under here. This is the type of game where a veteran team (Buffalo) struggling a bit on one side steps up and plays to the moment and given how Baltimore's defense has simply been lights out for the past 7-8 weeks to me at least, screams under.
Divisional round football. Really hoping for some good competitive games this week. But the Picker doesn't really have that in mind for a couple of them as you will see below. Some big spreads this week Detroit double digit favorites over Washington and the Chiefs 8.5 point favorites over the Texans. The picker really likes Baltimore up in frigid Buffalo. I will point out that the Ravens play, according to the picker is in that 7-point sweet spot that is doing very well this season at 9-2.
Saturday Divisional Round Football
Houston @ Kansas City
The Texans head to Kansas City in a matchup that seems lopsided on paper. Over the past month, Houston’s offense has been stuck in neutral, managing just 14.67 points per game while allowing 24 on defense. Combine that with their lackluster red zone efficiency (49.1%) against a Chiefs defense that’s allowing scores on just 51.9% of red zone trips, and it’s hard to imagine Houston keeping up in this one.
Kansas City’s offense, meanwhile, has been steady, averaging 24 points per game with 343.25 yards of offense over the past month. Their 5.1 yards per play on offense matches Houston’s mark, but the Chiefs’ defense has been the real separator, holding opponents to just 307.25 yards and 13.25 points per game. Kansas City’s ability to limit damage in the red zone and force opponents into long third downs has been key to their recent success.
Houston’s chances look even slimmer given their injuries. With a receiving corps struggling to get separation, the Texans may need a Herculean effort from their defense to keep this one close. I would be a miss if I didn't note that Joe Mixon missed Thursday's practice due to an ankle injury, that is something to keep an eye on leading up to the game. Kansas City is playing at home, and with Arrowhead’s notorious noise advantage, the Texans are facing an uphill battle to avoid a blowout. 8.5 Points is a lot to lay in a divisional round, but this Texans team, despite scoring 32 points they struggled moving the ball for large chunks of the game versus the Chargers. Then add in the balmy 22 degree weather forecast for Kansas City on Saturday has me rolling with the chalk in this one.
Washington @ Detroit
The Commanders head to Detroit in a matchup that promises fireworks, given the high-scoring tendencies of both teams. Over the past month, Washington has been surprisingly efficient on offense, putting up 29.67 points per game and averaging 349.67 yards. Their yards per play efficiency sits at a respectable 5.7, but the defense has struggled to match that output, allowing 25.33 points per game and giving up 351 yards on average. Allowing a middle of the road (Playoff Teams) average of 5.4 yards per play, but with a suspect red zone defense allowing touchdowns on 60.4% of trips, keeping Detroit off the scoreboard will be a tall order.
The Lions, on the other hand, have been an offensive juggernaut, leading the league over the past month with 36.75 points per game and an eye-popping 457.25 yards of offense per contest. They’re converting an impressive 69.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns and averaging 6.2 yards per play. Defensively, they’re giving up 27 points per game and 419.50 yards, which raises questions about whether they can consistently hold Washington's offense in check. But with their red zone defense allowing touchdowns just 50.9% of the time, Detroit may have enough to keep the Commanders at bay.
Both teams boast high-powered offenses, but Detroit’s edge lies in its ability to finish drives and protect home turf. While the Commanders have shown resilience, they’ll need to play a near-perfect game to keep pace. The Lions look poised to outlast Washington in a shootout, but if the Commanders can exploit Detroit’s shaky defensive yardage numbers, this one could get interesting late. I like the 10 points here and albeit a high 55 points for the over, but I think it hits. Both team's offenses are aggressive on 4th downs which should lead to several extended drives resulting in some bonus points.
Sunday Divisional Round Playoff Football
Los Angeles @ Philadelphia
The Rams head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in a clash where both teams' strengths—and weaknesses—will be tested. Over the past month, the Rams have averaged just 19 points per game and 300.67 yards of offense, struggling to finish drives with a red zone efficiency of only 52.4%. Defensively, though, they’ve been better, allowing just 16 points per game. However, giving up 351 yards per game could spell trouble against a Philadelphia team firing on all cylinders offensively.
The Eagles, meanwhile, have been a buzzsaw. Averaging 33.67 points per game over the last four weeks, they’ve also been holding opponents to just 18.67 points per contest. Their 57.4% red zone efficiency offensively is solid, and their defense allows only 266.33 yards per game, anchored by a dominant front seven that could feast on a Rams offensive line giving up pressure consistently. Philadelphia’s edge in yards per play (5.6 vs. 5.4) and defensive efficiency could be the deciding factor in this one.
For the Rams to stay competitive, they’ll need to win the battle in the trenches and figure out a way to finish drives—something they’ve struggled with recently. Overcome the historical struggles of teams traveling West to East and cold snowy conditions being called for on Sunday (34 and Snow) The Eagles, on the other hand, look primed to continue their offensive dominance and keep the pressure on an inconsistent Rams attack. Especially on the ground. Unless Los Angeles finds some magic, this game looks like another comfortable win for Philadelphia.
Baltimore @ Buffalo
The Ravens head to Buffalo for what should be the game of the week. With temperature's in the low teens with blistering lake effect snow in the forecast. This will be a true test for Lamar, IMO. I am still skeptical of playoff Lamar and this weather does nothing to subside any of my concerns. However, Baltimore’s offense has been electric over the past month, averaging 33.33 points per game on 429 yards, with a dominant 74.2% red zone efficiency. This is along with an insane 6.8 yards per play. For reference the league average tends to hover around the mid fives and no team has ever finished with a 7.0 or higher season average. Meanwhile, the defense has been lights out, allowing a stingy 9.67 points per game and just 252 yards per contest. With that kind of balance, the Ravens look poised to challenge a Bills team that has been shaky on defense lately.
Buffalo’s offense isn’t the issue—they’re averaging 37.33 points and 410.33 yards per game over the last four weeks. However, the defense has given up 25.67 points per game and nearly 400 yards, including struggles in the red zone where they’ve allowed opponents to score 57.4% of the time. Against a Ravens team firing on all cylinders, those defensive lapses could be the difference, especially if Baltimore continues to excel in limiting big plays and forcing field goals instead of touchdowns.
The Bills will need their defense to step up, particularly against a Ravens rushing attack that’s been carving teams apart. With the spread sitting at just -1, Vegas thinks this a true toss-up. But if Buffalo’s defense can’t figure things out, Baltimore might just roll into Orchard Park and walk out with a statement win. I lean Buffalo here because of the Lamar factor and the weather. I know Lamar has looked light years better in the pocket this season and factoring in Henry's presence, I still feel like this is Buffalo's game to lose. I am also aware of the beat down Buffalo sustained in Baltimore earlier in the season. Still lean Buffalo and I kind of really like the under here. This is the type of game where a veteran team (Buffalo) struggling a bit on one side steps up and plays to the moment and given how Baltimore's defense has simply been lights out for the past 7-8 weeks to me at least, screams under.
The Picker
Active member
Shamlock of Divisional Round Weekend
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (7-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5 Cheers
Week 18: GB -10 Boo
Wild Card: Buffalo -7.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Branches: 0-3 KC +10.5 Freshman team sucks
Ah, lads, what did I tell ya? Them Buffalos came stampedin’ through and trampled the poor Donkeys right into the snowy ground, just as predicted! -7.5? Sure, they cleared that with room to spare, didn’t they?
It was a right clinic out there, with the Buffalos gallopin’ closer to Voodoo City with their heads held high. And those Donkeys? Jaysus, they should’ve stayed home and saved themselves the embarrassment—and the bruises from the flyin’ dildos!
Another Shamlock in the books, lads. Sláinte to us and the growin’ pot o’ gold!
Divisional Round Shamlock!
The Bulls of Houston are trottin’ into the crisp cold of Kansas City, hopin’ to dodge the slaughterhouse, but let’s be honest, lads—that Walrus on the sidelines is a proper ball-buster after a bye week.
The natives’ll be restless, so they will, corrallin’ the herd and keepin’ ’em outta the end zone as best they can. Sure, the natives’ll find a way to score a few times, but points’ll be as rare as a chicken nuggy in the Walrus’ presence—a proper premium, they will be.
I reckon this one stays low. Keep it tidy, lads—Hou/KC Under 42.5 is the play.
Sláinte to the grind!
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (7-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5 Cheers
Week 18: GB -10 Boo
Wild Card: Buffalo -7.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Branches: 0-3 KC +10.5 Freshman team sucks
Ah, lads, what did I tell ya? Them Buffalos came stampedin’ through and trampled the poor Donkeys right into the snowy ground, just as predicted! -7.5? Sure, they cleared that with room to spare, didn’t they?
It was a right clinic out there, with the Buffalos gallopin’ closer to Voodoo City with their heads held high. And those Donkeys? Jaysus, they should’ve stayed home and saved themselves the embarrassment—and the bruises from the flyin’ dildos!
Another Shamlock in the books, lads. Sláinte to us and the growin’ pot o’ gold!
Divisional Round Shamlock!
The Bulls of Houston are trottin’ into the crisp cold of Kansas City, hopin’ to dodge the slaughterhouse, but let’s be honest, lads—that Walrus on the sidelines is a proper ball-buster after a bye week.
The natives’ll be restless, so they will, corrallin’ the herd and keepin’ ’em outta the end zone as best they can. Sure, the natives’ll find a way to score a few times, but points’ll be as rare as a chicken nuggy in the Walrus’ presence—a proper premium, they will be.
I reckon this one stays low. Keep it tidy, lads—Hou/KC Under 42.5 is the play.
Sláinte to the grind!
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