MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024
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The Picker
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Shamlock's Championship Sunday Power Efficiency Rankings
Shite, lads. The first non-winning week for me power rankings—what a feckin’ gut punch! And the culprit? Jarred feckin’ Goff. And Lamar? Well, he’s Lamar, isn’t he? Hard to be too rough on him when you expect the man to cock it up anyway.
Still, not a losing week, but Jaysus, it’s not what we’re after either. And wouldn’t you know it? That cheeky little 69 strikes again, awkwardly hangin’ about like your cousin Susy Joe from West Virginia after the gang bang.
What? Surely, I’m not the only one!
Lads, we’ve reached Championship Sunday—the best of the best squarin’ off for a shot at the big dance. These rankings are as tight as a leprechaun’s grip on his last gold coin, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. So, without further ado, here’s how the final four stack up this week
1. The Bison from Buffalo
Shite, lads. The first non-winning week for me power rankings—what a feckin’ gut punch! And the culprit? Jarred feckin’ Goff. And Lamar? Well, he’s Lamar, isn’t he? Hard to be too rough on him when you expect the man to cock it up anyway.
Still, not a losing week, but Jaysus, it’s not what we’re after either. And wouldn’t you know it? That cheeky little 69 strikes again, awkwardly hangin’ about like your cousin Susy Joe from West Virginia after the gang bang.
What? Surely, I’m not the only one!
Lads, we’ve reached Championship Sunday—the best of the best squarin’ off for a shot at the big dance. These rankings are as tight as a leprechaun’s grip on his last gold coin, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. So, without further ado, here’s how the final four stack up this week
1. The Bison from Buffalo
The herd’s stampedin’ strong, lads. With Josh Allen leadin’ the charge, they’ve been flattenin’ everything in their path. Tough, relentless, and lookin’ like they’ve got their eyes locked on the big prize.
2. The Birds from Philly
Flyin’ high, so they are, and showin’ no signs of slowin’ down. They’ve got the firepower to light up a scoreboard and the defense to keep the other lads honest. A proper contender, make no mistake.
3. The Swifties from that City that is NOT in Kansas
Ah, Cowtown’s finest. Mahomes might be floppin' around, but this lot knows how to scrap when the chips are down. The Walrus has a few tricks up his sleeve, no doubt about it.
4. The Football Team from Washington
The underdogs of the lot, but sure, every pack needs a scrapper, don’t they? They’ve shown grit to get this far, but they’ll need to dig deep to keep up with this crowd.
And there ya have it—this week’s Championship Sunday Power Rankings! The final step to the big dance awaits, so grab a pint, settle in, and let’s see who marches on. Sláinte!
And there ya have it—this week’s Championship Sunday Power Rankings! The final step to the big dance awaits, so grab a pint, settle in, and let’s see who marches on. Sláinte!
The Picker
Active member
Championship Sunday Predictions
Only two weeks of football left until the dark days of winter suck all the joy out of our lives absent football. Plenty to say in the writeups this week. So here is the spread difference record.
Neither game is in a high confidence bracket. But would be nice to close out the playoffs at 9-4, so pulling for two wins ATS this week. I feel good about its chances. And let's not forget the over under record. With three covers the model will finish one game below 500%.
And now the predictions:
NFC Championship Game
Two division rivals will battle it out in the City of Brotherly Love, er… we’ll just go with Philadelphia, which gets to host the NFC Championship game thanks to the Commanders defeating the Lions last week. The two previous meetings were both competitive games that went late into the fourth quarter before being decided. In Week 11, Barkley rushed for 146 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns, with his second touchdown putting the game away with four minutes left. The second meeting saw the Commanders stage a great comeback. Down two scores going into the fourth quarter, Washington punched it in three times to win 36-33. However, that was with Kenny Pickett at the helm for the majority of the game. I still think this rubber match is shaping up to be a good one.
Barkley—this essentially comes down to him. He rushed for 150 yards (5.6 YPC) and 146 yards (6.0 YPC) with two touchdowns, respectively, in the two games against the Commanders. Washington isn’t just struggling against the Eagles; they’ve struggled to stop the run all year, ranking 30th in rush defense. That doesn’t bode well against the Eagles' second-ranked rushing offense in the league.
Two great forces collide. The Eagles' defense has been spectacular, leading the league in both total defense and scoring (including the playoffs). Washington, on the other hand, leads the NFL in scoring this season, averaging 30.25 PPG over their past four games. However, their defense has allowed 23.5 PPG over that same span.
I think the Eagles will do some self-scouting this week, which will lead them back to the formula that slowed Daniels and Washington’s offense down in Week 11. According to NFL Insights, the Eagles stayed disciplined, blitzing only five times and limiting Daniels to 18 yards on seven carries. In the second matchup, Washington went empty on 22.2% of their snaps, averaging 11.7 yards per play. This was a stark contrast to Week 11, where they averaged just 1.8 yards per play in the same scenario.
Both teams enter the game with a +6 turnover differential. It’s hard to quantify the impact of turnovers in the second game, as Washington turned it over five times while Philly turned it over twice. Looking back at the first matchup, Philadelphia won with the lone turnover being a Daniels interception, which led to a 39-yard touchdown run two plays later. In the second game, Hurts went out early. I lean toward Philly winning that game handily if Hurts had been healthy and they’d been gifted five turnovers.
Neither team has turned the ball over in the postseason, but it’s tough not to believe that whichever team wins the turnover battle in this game punches their ticket to New Orleans. But...what sways me in this one is history. There is just way too much of it against Washington, its too much for me to be able to take a road team in a championship game with a rookie QB. I think history prevails, the Eagles play the cleaner game and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl on February 9th. I am struggling a bit with taking Washington and the points, but I do think it's the play in this one. I am not as confident in the over as the picker is, but I do lean over. The weather definitely favors scoring with the forecast calling for clear and low 40's at kickoff.
AFC Championship Game
The Bills and Chiefs are set to clash in the AFC Championship game, a showdown between two of the league's most electric quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. While Buffalo has had the upper hand in the regular season, winning four straight matchups since 2021, Kansas City owns the postseason, with three consecutive playoff victories over the Bills, including last year’s nail-biting 27-24 divisional round win. This rubber match sets the stage for what promises to be another instant classic.
Buffalo got the better of Kansas City in Week 11, winning 30-21 at home in a game that saw the Chiefs commit two turnovers to the Bills’ one. The Chiefs were limited to just three explosive plays in that game, tying their lowest total since 2018. Despite their struggles to hit big plays, Kansas City’s efficiency shone through, finishing the season ranked 10th in offensive success rate (46.2%). However, their inability to generate chunk plays (ranking 31st in explosive play rate at 10.6%) continues to linger, and it was a factor in their Week 11 loss.
For the Bills, Khalil Shakir has emerged as a star this postseason, accounting for 33.3% of Buffalo’s receptions— the highest team share by a player in the playoffs since Travis Kelce in 2022. Speaking of Kelce, Buffalo held him to just two receptions for eight yards on four targets in Week 11, his fourth-fewest receiving yards in a game since 2016. Mahomes did not target Kelce in the red zone in that matchup, a rarity that the Chiefs will need to address if they hope to take full advantage of Buffalo’s 22nd-ranked pass defense.
Kansas City’s offensive line remains a concern. Since Week 15, left guard Joe Thuney has been filling in at left tackle, allowing an 11.3% pressure rate across 159 pass-blocking snaps. Meanwhile, Mike Caliendo, stepping in at left guard, has allowed an 11.9% pressure rate, including a team-high seven pressures against Houston last week. The Bills’ pass rush, while not elite, will look to exploit this weakness, as limiting Mahomes' time in the pocket could be the key to slowing Kansas City’s offense.
The Bills’ fourth-ranked rushing offense will once again try to outrun Kansas City’s 10th-ranked rushing defense. Buffalo ran for 104 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11, controlling the tempo with over 34 minutes of possession. If Buffalo can replicate that performance and keep Mahomes off the field, it could be a long night for Kansas City. However, the Chiefs’ defense, which allowed just 12.5 points per game over the last month, will look to force Allen into mistakes like the interception he threw in their previous meeting, one of only six on the season.
The Chiefs are slight home favorites (-2) with an over/under of 47.5. My personal advice, up until now, has been to never bet against Mahomes in the playoffs. But the Bills' ability to dictate pace with their run game and Shakir’s performance in the passing game this post-season gives them an edge. Ultimately, this comes down to execution in the red zone, and Buffalo’s 2nd best 68.4% red zone conversion rate could be the difference. I am going against Mahomes in this one taking the points (just to make myself feel better about the bet) and I think Buffalo heads to New Orleans to take on the Eagles. I also agree the over should hit especially if the current forecast holds for Sunday (partly cloudy in the mid to low 20's at kickoff).
Only two weeks of football left until the dark days of winter suck all the joy out of our lives absent football. Plenty to say in the writeups this week. So here is the spread difference record.
And now the predictions:
NFC Championship Game
Two division rivals will battle it out in the City of Brotherly Love, er… we’ll just go with Philadelphia, which gets to host the NFC Championship game thanks to the Commanders defeating the Lions last week. The two previous meetings were both competitive games that went late into the fourth quarter before being decided. In Week 11, Barkley rushed for 146 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns, with his second touchdown putting the game away with four minutes left. The second meeting saw the Commanders stage a great comeback. Down two scores going into the fourth quarter, Washington punched it in three times to win 36-33. However, that was with Kenny Pickett at the helm for the majority of the game. I still think this rubber match is shaping up to be a good one.
Barkley—this essentially comes down to him. He rushed for 150 yards (5.6 YPC) and 146 yards (6.0 YPC) with two touchdowns, respectively, in the two games against the Commanders. Washington isn’t just struggling against the Eagles; they’ve struggled to stop the run all year, ranking 30th in rush defense. That doesn’t bode well against the Eagles' second-ranked rushing offense in the league.
Two great forces collide. The Eagles' defense has been spectacular, leading the league in both total defense and scoring (including the playoffs). Washington, on the other hand, leads the NFL in scoring this season, averaging 30.25 PPG over their past four games. However, their defense has allowed 23.5 PPG over that same span.
I think the Eagles will do some self-scouting this week, which will lead them back to the formula that slowed Daniels and Washington’s offense down in Week 11. According to NFL Insights, the Eagles stayed disciplined, blitzing only five times and limiting Daniels to 18 yards on seven carries. In the second matchup, Washington went empty on 22.2% of their snaps, averaging 11.7 yards per play. This was a stark contrast to Week 11, where they averaged just 1.8 yards per play in the same scenario.
Both teams enter the game with a +6 turnover differential. It’s hard to quantify the impact of turnovers in the second game, as Washington turned it over five times while Philly turned it over twice. Looking back at the first matchup, Philadelphia won with the lone turnover being a Daniels interception, which led to a 39-yard touchdown run two plays later. In the second game, Hurts went out early. I lean toward Philly winning that game handily if Hurts had been healthy and they’d been gifted five turnovers.
Neither team has turned the ball over in the postseason, but it’s tough not to believe that whichever team wins the turnover battle in this game punches their ticket to New Orleans. But...what sways me in this one is history. There is just way too much of it against Washington, its too much for me to be able to take a road team in a championship game with a rookie QB. I think history prevails, the Eagles play the cleaner game and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl on February 9th. I am struggling a bit with taking Washington and the points, but I do think it's the play in this one. I am not as confident in the over as the picker is, but I do lean over. The weather definitely favors scoring with the forecast calling for clear and low 40's at kickoff.
AFC Championship Game
The Bills and Chiefs are set to clash in the AFC Championship game, a showdown between two of the league's most electric quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. While Buffalo has had the upper hand in the regular season, winning four straight matchups since 2021, Kansas City owns the postseason, with three consecutive playoff victories over the Bills, including last year’s nail-biting 27-24 divisional round win. This rubber match sets the stage for what promises to be another instant classic.
Buffalo got the better of Kansas City in Week 11, winning 30-21 at home in a game that saw the Chiefs commit two turnovers to the Bills’ one. The Chiefs were limited to just three explosive plays in that game, tying their lowest total since 2018. Despite their struggles to hit big plays, Kansas City’s efficiency shone through, finishing the season ranked 10th in offensive success rate (46.2%). However, their inability to generate chunk plays (ranking 31st in explosive play rate at 10.6%) continues to linger, and it was a factor in their Week 11 loss.
For the Bills, Khalil Shakir has emerged as a star this postseason, accounting for 33.3% of Buffalo’s receptions— the highest team share by a player in the playoffs since Travis Kelce in 2022. Speaking of Kelce, Buffalo held him to just two receptions for eight yards on four targets in Week 11, his fourth-fewest receiving yards in a game since 2016. Mahomes did not target Kelce in the red zone in that matchup, a rarity that the Chiefs will need to address if they hope to take full advantage of Buffalo’s 22nd-ranked pass defense.
Kansas City’s offensive line remains a concern. Since Week 15, left guard Joe Thuney has been filling in at left tackle, allowing an 11.3% pressure rate across 159 pass-blocking snaps. Meanwhile, Mike Caliendo, stepping in at left guard, has allowed an 11.9% pressure rate, including a team-high seven pressures against Houston last week. The Bills’ pass rush, while not elite, will look to exploit this weakness, as limiting Mahomes' time in the pocket could be the key to slowing Kansas City’s offense.
The Bills’ fourth-ranked rushing offense will once again try to outrun Kansas City’s 10th-ranked rushing defense. Buffalo ran for 104 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11, controlling the tempo with over 34 minutes of possession. If Buffalo can replicate that performance and keep Mahomes off the field, it could be a long night for Kansas City. However, the Chiefs’ defense, which allowed just 12.5 points per game over the last month, will look to force Allen into mistakes like the interception he threw in their previous meeting, one of only six on the season.
The Chiefs are slight home favorites (-2) with an over/under of 47.5. My personal advice, up until now, has been to never bet against Mahomes in the playoffs. But the Bills' ability to dictate pace with their run game and Shakir’s performance in the passing game this post-season gives them an edge. Ultimately, this comes down to execution in the red zone, and Buffalo’s 2nd best 68.4% red zone conversion rate could be the difference. I am going against Mahomes in this one taking the points (just to make myself feel better about the bet) and I think Buffalo heads to New Orleans to take on the Eagles. I also agree the over should hit especially if the current forecast holds for Sunday (partly cloudy in the mid to low 20's at kickoff).
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The Picker
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CM Punk
Best in the World
Well you're homeless now.
The Picker
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Shamlock of Championship Sunday
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (8-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5 Cheers
Week 18: GB -10 Boo
Wild Card: Buffalo -7.5 Cheers
Divisional: Hou/KC Under 42.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Branches: 0-3 KC +10.5 Freshman team sucks
What did I tell ya? Them Bulls from Houston trotted into the crisp cold of Kansas City, and sure enough, they were corralled and kept far from the end zone, just as predicted. The Walrus worked his magic, and the natives were stingy as ever, makin’ points as rare as a chicken nugget in the big man’s hands.
Under 42.5? Never in doubt, lads. A proper tidy call, and the Shamlock delivers once again!
Sláinte to us, and here’s to keepin’ the pot o’ gold growin’!
Championship Sunday Shamlock:
The herd of Bison will be strollin’ outta Buffalo and into Cowtown, hopin’ to avoid becomin’ the Natives’ main course. But let’s be honest, lads—the intensity of the hunt will only fire up a proper stampede.
Expect these two to be chargin’ up and down the field like mad beasts, showin’ no mercy to the poor fecker runnin’ the scoreboard. He’ll be workin’ harder than a barman on St. Paddy’s Day!
Buffalo/KC Over 47.5 is the play, lads. Points’ll be flyin’ like arrows and hoofs, so buckle in and enjoy the madness.
Sláinte!
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (8-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5 Cheers
Week 18: GB -10 Boo
Wild Card: Buffalo -7.5 Cheers
Divisional: Hou/KC Under 42.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Branches: 0-3 KC +10.5 Freshman team sucks
What did I tell ya? Them Bulls from Houston trotted into the crisp cold of Kansas City, and sure enough, they were corralled and kept far from the end zone, just as predicted. The Walrus worked his magic, and the natives were stingy as ever, makin’ points as rare as a chicken nugget in the big man’s hands.
Under 42.5? Never in doubt, lads. A proper tidy call, and the Shamlock delivers once again!
Sláinte to us, and here’s to keepin’ the pot o’ gold growin’!
Championship Sunday Shamlock:
The herd of Bison will be strollin’ outta Buffalo and into Cowtown, hopin’ to avoid becomin’ the Natives’ main course. But let’s be honest, lads—the intensity of the hunt will only fire up a proper stampede.
Expect these two to be chargin’ up and down the field like mad beasts, showin’ no mercy to the poor fecker runnin’ the scoreboard. He’ll be workin’ harder than a barman on St. Paddy’s Day!
Buffalo/KC Over 47.5 is the play, lads. Points’ll be flyin’ like arrows and hoofs, so buckle in and enjoy the madness.
Sláinte!
The Picker
Active member
Championship Sunday Results
Well, that was a Debby downer from lots of angles. We get to see Mahomes in the SB again. I'm disappointed in myself for breaking my biggest rule and betting against Mahomes in a playoff game. The picker lost both games ATS, it did go 2-0 on the totals but overall, a disappointing weekend.
A couple of quick notes model 2 will either finish at 53 (with a loss in the SB) or 54% (with a win in the SB). I can't say I am unhappy with that. With a win on the total it will finish at 49.7%, that would be quite the comeback for the picker in that area.
Unfortunately, the Picker didn't go on an epic run like it did last playoffs, last year it was 10-3 on the line. This year it currently sits at 6-6.
Well, that was a Debby downer from lots of angles. We get to see Mahomes in the SB again. I'm disappointed in myself for breaking my biggest rule and betting against Mahomes in a playoff game. The picker lost both games ATS, it did go 2-0 on the totals but overall, a disappointing weekend.
A couple of quick notes model 2 will either finish at 53 (with a loss in the SB) or 54% (with a win in the SB). I can't say I am unhappy with that. With a win on the total it will finish at 49.7%, that would be quite the comeback for the picker in that area.
Unfortunately, the Picker didn't go on an epic run like it did last playoffs, last year it was 10-3 on the line. This year it currently sits at 6-6.
Never bet against Mahomes in a playoff game. Especially with how the NFL protects him and the lack of great QBs behind him to challenge him. Allen put in a valiant effort yesterday, but the Bills got fucked.
The Picker
Active member
Yep, been my modo for years and there I was breaking my own rules.
