MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024
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The Picker
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Shamlock's Championship Sunday Power Efficiency Rankings
Shite, lads. The first non-winning week for me power rankings—what a feckin’ gut punch! And the culprit? Jarred feckin’ Goff. And Lamar? Well, he’s Lamar, isn’t he? Hard to be too rough on him when you expect the man to cock it up anyway.
Still, not a losing week, but Jaysus, it’s not what we’re after either. And wouldn’t you know it? That cheeky little 69 strikes again, awkwardly hangin’ about like your cousin Susy Joe from West Virginia after the gang bang.
What? Surely, I’m not the only one!
Lads, we’ve reached Championship Sunday—the best of the best squarin’ off for a shot at the big dance. These rankings are as tight as a leprechaun’s grip on his last gold coin, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. So, without further ado, here’s how the final four stack up this week
1. The Bison from Buffalo
Shite, lads. The first non-winning week for me power rankings—what a feckin’ gut punch! And the culprit? Jarred feckin’ Goff. And Lamar? Well, he’s Lamar, isn’t he? Hard to be too rough on him when you expect the man to cock it up anyway.
Still, not a losing week, but Jaysus, it’s not what we’re after either. And wouldn’t you know it? That cheeky little 69 strikes again, awkwardly hangin’ about like your cousin Susy Joe from West Virginia after the gang bang.
What? Surely, I’m not the only one!
Lads, we’ve reached Championship Sunday—the best of the best squarin’ off for a shot at the big dance. These rankings are as tight as a leprechaun’s grip on his last gold coin, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. So, without further ado, here’s how the final four stack up this week
1. The Bison from Buffalo
The herd’s stampedin’ strong, lads. With Josh Allen leadin’ the charge, they’ve been flattenin’ everything in their path. Tough, relentless, and lookin’ like they’ve got their eyes locked on the big prize.
2. The Birds from Philly
Flyin’ high, so they are, and showin’ no signs of slowin’ down. They’ve got the firepower to light up a scoreboard and the defense to keep the other lads honest. A proper contender, make no mistake.
3. The Swifties from that City that is NOT in Kansas
Ah, Cowtown’s finest. Mahomes might be floppin' around, but this lot knows how to scrap when the chips are down. The Walrus has a few tricks up his sleeve, no doubt about it.
4. The Football Team from Washington
The underdogs of the lot, but sure, every pack needs a scrapper, don’t they? They’ve shown grit to get this far, but they’ll need to dig deep to keep up with this crowd.
And there ya have it—this week’s Championship Sunday Power Rankings! The final step to the big dance awaits, so grab a pint, settle in, and let’s see who marches on. Sláinte!
And there ya have it—this week’s Championship Sunday Power Rankings! The final step to the big dance awaits, so grab a pint, settle in, and let’s see who marches on. Sláinte!
The Picker
Active member
Championship Sunday Predictions
Only two weeks of football left until the dark days of winter suck all the joy out of our lives absent football. Plenty to say in the writeups this week. So here is the spread difference record.
Neither game is in a high confidence bracket. But would be nice to close out the playoffs at 9-4, so pulling for two wins ATS this week. I feel good about its chances. And let's not forget the over under record. With three covers the model will finish one game below 500%.
And now the predictions:
NFC Championship Game
Two division rivals will battle it out in the City of Brotherly Love, er… we’ll just go with Philadelphia, which gets to host the NFC Championship game thanks to the Commanders defeating the Lions last week. The two previous meetings were both competitive games that went late into the fourth quarter before being decided. In Week 11, Barkley rushed for 146 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns, with his second touchdown putting the game away with four minutes left. The second meeting saw the Commanders stage a great comeback. Down two scores going into the fourth quarter, Washington punched it in three times to win 36-33. However, that was with Kenny Pickett at the helm for the majority of the game. I still think this rubber match is shaping up to be a good one.
Barkley—this essentially comes down to him. He rushed for 150 yards (5.6 YPC) and 146 yards (6.0 YPC) with two touchdowns, respectively, in the two games against the Commanders. Washington isn’t just struggling against the Eagles; they’ve struggled to stop the run all year, ranking 30th in rush defense. That doesn’t bode well against the Eagles' second-ranked rushing offense in the league.
Two great forces collide. The Eagles' defense has been spectacular, leading the league in both total defense and scoring (including the playoffs). Washington, on the other hand, leads the NFL in scoring this season, averaging 30.25 PPG over their past four games. However, their defense has allowed 23.5 PPG over that same span.
I think the Eagles will do some self-scouting this week, which will lead them back to the formula that slowed Daniels and Washington’s offense down in Week 11. According to NFL Insights, the Eagles stayed disciplined, blitzing only five times and limiting Daniels to 18 yards on seven carries. In the second matchup, Washington went empty on 22.2% of their snaps, averaging 11.7 yards per play. This was a stark contrast to Week 11, where they averaged just 1.8 yards per play in the same scenario.
Both teams enter the game with a +6 turnover differential. It’s hard to quantify the impact of turnovers in the second game, as Washington turned it over five times while Philly turned it over twice. Looking back at the first matchup, Philadelphia won with the lone turnover being a Daniels interception, which led to a 39-yard touchdown run two plays later. In the second game, Hurts went out early. I lean toward Philly winning that game handily if Hurts had been healthy and they’d been gifted five turnovers.
Neither team has turned the ball over in the postseason, but it’s tough not to believe that whichever team wins the turnover battle in this game punches their ticket to New Orleans. But...what sways me in this one is history. There is just way too much of it against Washington, its too much for me to be able to take a road team in a championship game with a rookie QB. I think history prevails, the Eagles play the cleaner game and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl on February 9th. I am struggling a bit with taking Washington and the points, but I do think it's the play in this one. I am not as confident in the over as the picker is, but I do lean over. The weather definitely favors scoring with the forecast calling for clear and low 40's at kickoff.
AFC Championship Game
The Bills and Chiefs are set to clash in the AFC Championship game, a showdown between two of the league's most electric quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. While Buffalo has had the upper hand in the regular season, winning four straight matchups since 2021, Kansas City owns the postseason, with three consecutive playoff victories over the Bills, including last year’s nail-biting 27-24 divisional round win. This rubber match sets the stage for what promises to be another instant classic.
Buffalo got the better of Kansas City in Week 11, winning 30-21 at home in a game that saw the Chiefs commit two turnovers to the Bills’ one. The Chiefs were limited to just three explosive plays in that game, tying their lowest total since 2018. Despite their struggles to hit big plays, Kansas City’s efficiency shone through, finishing the season ranked 10th in offensive success rate (46.2%). However, their inability to generate chunk plays (ranking 31st in explosive play rate at 10.6%) continues to linger, and it was a factor in their Week 11 loss.
For the Bills, Khalil Shakir has emerged as a star this postseason, accounting for 33.3% of Buffalo’s receptions— the highest team share by a player in the playoffs since Travis Kelce in 2022. Speaking of Kelce, Buffalo held him to just two receptions for eight yards on four targets in Week 11, his fourth-fewest receiving yards in a game since 2016. Mahomes did not target Kelce in the red zone in that matchup, a rarity that the Chiefs will need to address if they hope to take full advantage of Buffalo’s 22nd-ranked pass defense.
Kansas City’s offensive line remains a concern. Since Week 15, left guard Joe Thuney has been filling in at left tackle, allowing an 11.3% pressure rate across 159 pass-blocking snaps. Meanwhile, Mike Caliendo, stepping in at left guard, has allowed an 11.9% pressure rate, including a team-high seven pressures against Houston last week. The Bills’ pass rush, while not elite, will look to exploit this weakness, as limiting Mahomes' time in the pocket could be the key to slowing Kansas City’s offense.
The Bills’ fourth-ranked rushing offense will once again try to outrun Kansas City’s 10th-ranked rushing defense. Buffalo ran for 104 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11, controlling the tempo with over 34 minutes of possession. If Buffalo can replicate that performance and keep Mahomes off the field, it could be a long night for Kansas City. However, the Chiefs’ defense, which allowed just 12.5 points per game over the last month, will look to force Allen into mistakes like the interception he threw in their previous meeting, one of only six on the season.
The Chiefs are slight home favorites (-2) with an over/under of 47.5. My personal advice, up until now, has been to never bet against Mahomes in the playoffs. But the Bills' ability to dictate pace with their run game and Shakir’s performance in the passing game this post-season gives them an edge. Ultimately, this comes down to execution in the red zone, and Buffalo’s 2nd best 68.4% red zone conversion rate could be the difference. I am going against Mahomes in this one taking the points (just to make myself feel better about the bet) and I think Buffalo heads to New Orleans to take on the Eagles. I also agree the over should hit especially if the current forecast holds for Sunday (partly cloudy in the mid to low 20's at kickoff).
Only two weeks of football left until the dark days of winter suck all the joy out of our lives absent football. Plenty to say in the writeups this week. So here is the spread difference record.
And now the predictions:
NFC Championship Game
Two division rivals will battle it out in the City of Brotherly Love, er… we’ll just go with Philadelphia, which gets to host the NFC Championship game thanks to the Commanders defeating the Lions last week. The two previous meetings were both competitive games that went late into the fourth quarter before being decided. In Week 11, Barkley rushed for 146 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns, with his second touchdown putting the game away with four minutes left. The second meeting saw the Commanders stage a great comeback. Down two scores going into the fourth quarter, Washington punched it in three times to win 36-33. However, that was with Kenny Pickett at the helm for the majority of the game. I still think this rubber match is shaping up to be a good one.
Barkley—this essentially comes down to him. He rushed for 150 yards (5.6 YPC) and 146 yards (6.0 YPC) with two touchdowns, respectively, in the two games against the Commanders. Washington isn’t just struggling against the Eagles; they’ve struggled to stop the run all year, ranking 30th in rush defense. That doesn’t bode well against the Eagles' second-ranked rushing offense in the league.
Two great forces collide. The Eagles' defense has been spectacular, leading the league in both total defense and scoring (including the playoffs). Washington, on the other hand, leads the NFL in scoring this season, averaging 30.25 PPG over their past four games. However, their defense has allowed 23.5 PPG over that same span.
I think the Eagles will do some self-scouting this week, which will lead them back to the formula that slowed Daniels and Washington’s offense down in Week 11. According to NFL Insights, the Eagles stayed disciplined, blitzing only five times and limiting Daniels to 18 yards on seven carries. In the second matchup, Washington went empty on 22.2% of their snaps, averaging 11.7 yards per play. This was a stark contrast to Week 11, where they averaged just 1.8 yards per play in the same scenario.
Both teams enter the game with a +6 turnover differential. It’s hard to quantify the impact of turnovers in the second game, as Washington turned it over five times while Philly turned it over twice. Looking back at the first matchup, Philadelphia won with the lone turnover being a Daniels interception, which led to a 39-yard touchdown run two plays later. In the second game, Hurts went out early. I lean toward Philly winning that game handily if Hurts had been healthy and they’d been gifted five turnovers.
Neither team has turned the ball over in the postseason, but it’s tough not to believe that whichever team wins the turnover battle in this game punches their ticket to New Orleans. But...what sways me in this one is history. There is just way too much of it against Washington, its too much for me to be able to take a road team in a championship game with a rookie QB. I think history prevails, the Eagles play the cleaner game and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl on February 9th. I am struggling a bit with taking Washington and the points, but I do think it's the play in this one. I am not as confident in the over as the picker is, but I do lean over. The weather definitely favors scoring with the forecast calling for clear and low 40's at kickoff.
AFC Championship Game
The Bills and Chiefs are set to clash in the AFC Championship game, a showdown between two of the league's most electric quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. While Buffalo has had the upper hand in the regular season, winning four straight matchups since 2021, Kansas City owns the postseason, with three consecutive playoff victories over the Bills, including last year’s nail-biting 27-24 divisional round win. This rubber match sets the stage for what promises to be another instant classic.
Buffalo got the better of Kansas City in Week 11, winning 30-21 at home in a game that saw the Chiefs commit two turnovers to the Bills’ one. The Chiefs were limited to just three explosive plays in that game, tying their lowest total since 2018. Despite their struggles to hit big plays, Kansas City’s efficiency shone through, finishing the season ranked 10th in offensive success rate (46.2%). However, their inability to generate chunk plays (ranking 31st in explosive play rate at 10.6%) continues to linger, and it was a factor in their Week 11 loss.
For the Bills, Khalil Shakir has emerged as a star this postseason, accounting for 33.3% of Buffalo’s receptions— the highest team share by a player in the playoffs since Travis Kelce in 2022. Speaking of Kelce, Buffalo held him to just two receptions for eight yards on four targets in Week 11, his fourth-fewest receiving yards in a game since 2016. Mahomes did not target Kelce in the red zone in that matchup, a rarity that the Chiefs will need to address if they hope to take full advantage of Buffalo’s 22nd-ranked pass defense.
Kansas City’s offensive line remains a concern. Since Week 15, left guard Joe Thuney has been filling in at left tackle, allowing an 11.3% pressure rate across 159 pass-blocking snaps. Meanwhile, Mike Caliendo, stepping in at left guard, has allowed an 11.9% pressure rate, including a team-high seven pressures against Houston last week. The Bills’ pass rush, while not elite, will look to exploit this weakness, as limiting Mahomes' time in the pocket could be the key to slowing Kansas City’s offense.
The Bills’ fourth-ranked rushing offense will once again try to outrun Kansas City’s 10th-ranked rushing defense. Buffalo ran for 104 yards and three touchdowns in Week 11, controlling the tempo with over 34 minutes of possession. If Buffalo can replicate that performance and keep Mahomes off the field, it could be a long night for Kansas City. However, the Chiefs’ defense, which allowed just 12.5 points per game over the last month, will look to force Allen into mistakes like the interception he threw in their previous meeting, one of only six on the season.
The Chiefs are slight home favorites (-2) with an over/under of 47.5. My personal advice, up until now, has been to never bet against Mahomes in the playoffs. But the Bills' ability to dictate pace with their run game and Shakir’s performance in the passing game this post-season gives them an edge. Ultimately, this comes down to execution in the red zone, and Buffalo’s 2nd best 68.4% red zone conversion rate could be the difference. I am going against Mahomes in this one taking the points (just to make myself feel better about the bet) and I think Buffalo heads to New Orleans to take on the Eagles. I also agree the over should hit especially if the current forecast holds for Sunday (partly cloudy in the mid to low 20's at kickoff).
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The Picker
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CM Punk
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Well you're homeless now.
The Picker
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Shamlock of Championship Sunday
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (8-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5 Cheers
Week 18: GB -10 Boo
Wild Card: Buffalo -7.5 Cheers
Divisional: Hou/KC Under 42.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Branches: 0-3 KC +10.5 Freshman team sucks
What did I tell ya? Them Bulls from Houston trotted into the crisp cold of Kansas City, and sure enough, they were corralled and kept far from the end zone, just as predicted. The Walrus worked his magic, and the natives were stingy as ever, makin’ points as rare as a chicken nugget in the big man’s hands.
Under 42.5? Never in doubt, lads. A proper tidy call, and the Shamlock delivers once again!
Sláinte to us, and here’s to keepin’ the pot o’ gold growin’!
Championship Sunday Shamlock:
The herd of Bison will be strollin’ outta Buffalo and into Cowtown, hopin’ to avoid becomin’ the Natives’ main course. But let’s be honest, lads—the intensity of the hunt will only fire up a proper stampede.
Expect these two to be chargin’ up and down the field like mad beasts, showin’ no mercy to the poor fecker runnin’ the scoreboard. He’ll be workin’ harder than a barman on St. Paddy’s Day!
Buffalo/KC Over 47.5 is the play, lads. Points’ll be flyin’ like arrows and hoofs, so buckle in and enjoy the madness.
Sláinte!
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (8-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5 Cheers
Week 18: GB -10 Boo
Wild Card: Buffalo -7.5 Cheers
Divisional: Hou/KC Under 42.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Branches: 0-3 KC +10.5 Freshman team sucks
What did I tell ya? Them Bulls from Houston trotted into the crisp cold of Kansas City, and sure enough, they were corralled and kept far from the end zone, just as predicted. The Walrus worked his magic, and the natives were stingy as ever, makin’ points as rare as a chicken nugget in the big man’s hands.
Under 42.5? Never in doubt, lads. A proper tidy call, and the Shamlock delivers once again!
Sláinte to us, and here’s to keepin’ the pot o’ gold growin’!
Championship Sunday Shamlock:
The herd of Bison will be strollin’ outta Buffalo and into Cowtown, hopin’ to avoid becomin’ the Natives’ main course. But let’s be honest, lads—the intensity of the hunt will only fire up a proper stampede.
Expect these two to be chargin’ up and down the field like mad beasts, showin’ no mercy to the poor fecker runnin’ the scoreboard. He’ll be workin’ harder than a barman on St. Paddy’s Day!
Buffalo/KC Over 47.5 is the play, lads. Points’ll be flyin’ like arrows and hoofs, so buckle in and enjoy the madness.
Sláinte!
The Picker
Active member
Championship Sunday Results
Well, that was a Debby downer from lots of angles. We get to see Mahomes in the SB again. I'm disappointed in myself for breaking my biggest rule and betting against Mahomes in a playoff game. The picker lost both games ATS, it did go 2-0 on the totals but overall, a disappointing weekend.
A couple of quick notes model 2 will either finish at 53 (with a loss in the SB) or 54% (with a win in the SB). I can't say I am unhappy with that. With a win on the total it will finish at 49.7%, that would be quite the comeback for the picker in that area.
Unfortunately, the Picker didn't go on an epic run like it did last playoffs, last year it was 10-3 on the line. This year it currently sits at 6-6.
Well, that was a Debby downer from lots of angles. We get to see Mahomes in the SB again. I'm disappointed in myself for breaking my biggest rule and betting against Mahomes in a playoff game. The picker lost both games ATS, it did go 2-0 on the totals but overall, a disappointing weekend.
A couple of quick notes model 2 will either finish at 53 (with a loss in the SB) or 54% (with a win in the SB). I can't say I am unhappy with that. With a win on the total it will finish at 49.7%, that would be quite the comeback for the picker in that area.
Unfortunately, the Picker didn't go on an epic run like it did last playoffs, last year it was 10-3 on the line. This year it currently sits at 6-6.
Never bet against Mahomes in a playoff game. Especially with how the NFL protects him and the lack of great QBs behind him to challenge him. Allen put in a valiant effort yesterday, but the Bills got fucked.
The Picker
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Yep, been my modo for years and there I was breaking my own rules.
The Picker
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Shamlock's Super Sunday Power Efficiency Rankings
Here we are lads - the last great Sunday until September. The grandest day of the year, full of joy, pageantry, and reckless gambling. But let’s not ignore the grim reality settin’ in - after tonight, we enter months of Sunday darkness.
Gone are the days of tellin’ the missus to feck off ‘cause you’re busy analyzin’ that 23-leg parlay that definitely wasn’t losin’ this time. No more bailin’ on chores with the excuse of “big game implications”. Nah, instead, you’re stuck talkin’ to the wife, spendin’ time with the kids, or worse -takin’ an interest in their feckin’ hobbies.
Now, I don’t mean to be a Debbie Downer on Super Sunday, just gettin’ ahead of meself. So let’s focus on the bright side, eh? Patrick Mahomes is playin’ in the Super Bowl! …HeHe. Too soon?
1-1 last week, lads, and just like that, we tumble outta the 70s and land right back at old trusty 69. Seems no matter what I do, I can’t stay away from it for too long. Win or lose, looks like we’re destined to finish right there - fate’s got a sense of humor, so it does.
Well, no time for lamentin’. Let’s get down to business—here’s how the two teams stack up against each other this week
Here we feckin’ go, lads - the Birds of Philly squarin’ off against the Swifties from the City That is NOT in Kansas. A matchup fit for a Super Bowl… or a poorly planned country music festival. Will the Birds come in swingin’ like a South Philly bouncer at last call, or will the Swifties, fueled by their beloved pop princess, glide their way to yet another love story ending?
One thing’s for certain - this one’s got all the makings of a feckin’ spectacle. The Birds are tough as nails, meaner than a cheesesteak fight in a Wawa parking lot. The Swifties? Somehow both battle-tested and wrapped in a protective PR bubble, led by a QB who plays better than any ex she’s ever written a song about.
Rankings be damned, lads - expect drama, expect fireworks, and expect at least one unnecessary cutaway to a luxury box.
Here we are lads - the last great Sunday until September. The grandest day of the year, full of joy, pageantry, and reckless gambling. But let’s not ignore the grim reality settin’ in - after tonight, we enter months of Sunday darkness.
Gone are the days of tellin’ the missus to feck off ‘cause you’re busy analyzin’ that 23-leg parlay that definitely wasn’t losin’ this time. No more bailin’ on chores with the excuse of “big game implications”. Nah, instead, you’re stuck talkin’ to the wife, spendin’ time with the kids, or worse -takin’ an interest in their feckin’ hobbies.
Now, I don’t mean to be a Debbie Downer on Super Sunday, just gettin’ ahead of meself. So let’s focus on the bright side, eh? Patrick Mahomes is playin’ in the Super Bowl! …HeHe. Too soon?
1-1 last week, lads, and just like that, we tumble outta the 70s and land right back at old trusty 69. Seems no matter what I do, I can’t stay away from it for too long. Win or lose, looks like we’re destined to finish right there - fate’s got a sense of humor, so it does.
Well, no time for lamentin’. Let’s get down to business—here’s how the two teams stack up against each other this week
Here we feckin’ go, lads - the Birds of Philly squarin’ off against the Swifties from the City That is NOT in Kansas. A matchup fit for a Super Bowl… or a poorly planned country music festival. Will the Birds come in swingin’ like a South Philly bouncer at last call, or will the Swifties, fueled by their beloved pop princess, glide their way to yet another love story ending?
One thing’s for certain - this one’s got all the makings of a feckin’ spectacle. The Birds are tough as nails, meaner than a cheesesteak fight in a Wawa parking lot. The Swifties? Somehow both battle-tested and wrapped in a protective PR bubble, led by a QB who plays better than any ex she’s ever written a song about.
Rankings be damned, lads - expect drama, expect fireworks, and expect at least one unnecessary cutaway to a luxury box.
The Picker
Active member
Championship Sunday Predictions
This is make or break for the picker this week and its playoff record. Coming in at 6-6 ATS in the playoffs is not what we are looking for here especially after the epic run the original picker (lord rest its soul) had last year in the playoffs. Super Sunday is upon us, and the picker has emerged, not unscathed, from the basement lab with its prediction. But first the writeup.
No writeup at this time. Apologies been a long week at work. I may get to it before Sunday, but not sure. But here is the pick.
This is make or break for the picker this week and its playoff record. Coming in at 6-6 ATS in the playoffs is not what we are looking for here especially after the epic run the original picker (lord rest its soul) had last year in the playoffs. Super Sunday is upon us, and the picker has emerged, not unscathed, from the basement lab with its prediction. But first the writeup.
No writeup at this time. Apologies been a long week at work. I may get to it before Sunday, but not sure. But here is the pick.
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Shamlock of Super Sunday
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (9-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5 Cheers
Week 18: GB -10 Boo
Wild Card: Buffalo -7.5 Cheers
Divisional: Hou/KC Under 42.5 Cheers
Championship: KC/BUF Over 47.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Branches: 0-3 KC +10.5 Freshman team sucks
Another Shamlock Cashes!
What did I feckin’ tell ya, lads? The Shamlock delivers again! Like clockwork, the herd of Bison stormed into Cowtown, and just as expected, the scoreboard operator got no mercy. Points flew faster than an arrow in a tribal skirmish, and the Over 47.5 cashed as sweetly as a fresh pint at last call.
Buffalo and KC turned the field into a proper stampede, tradin’ blows and runnin’ up the tally just as predicted. If you weren’t countin’ your winnings by halftime, you must’ve been too deep in the sauce to check.
Sláinte to another Shamlock in the bag, lads! Let’s keep this feckin’ pot o’ gold growin’!
Ah, would ya look at that? The Shamlock record lands right on 69%, same as the power rankings. At this point, I’m not even tryin’ - it just keeps followin’ me around like a stage-five clinger. Win, lose, or draw, seems like fate’s decided I’m stayin’ right here, like a drunk lad refusin’ to leave the pub after last call.
Sure, I could aim for 70%, but why mess with perfection?
Ah, feck that, lads - we ain’t sittin’ at 69% just for the laugh. We’re here to cash another one and push this record where it belongs - higher and heavier on the bookies' backs.
Nice as 69 is, I’d rather be stackin’ gold than gigglin’ like a schoolboy. So, let’s get on with it and land another feckin’ winner. No more flirtin’ with fate - it’s time to feckin’ cash!
History’s got plenty to say about this one!
Back in Super Bowl I, they didn’t even bother postin’ a line - probably ‘cause the bookies were too busy arguin’ whether this newfangled “Super Bowl” was just a glorified exhibition match. Turns out, it stuck. The underdog has hit 48 feckin’ times, while favorites have cashed only 7, with 2 pushes. That’s a proper underdog’s dream, so it is.
And what about points, eh? The over has hit 29 times, but here’s where it gets fun - the Chiefs have been in 4 Super Bowls lately, and the under has hit in 3 of ‘em. The only one that went over? Against these very Eagles. A bit of déjà vu, maybe?
Shamlock of Super Sunday
Alright, lads, time to cash another one! The Birds from Philly and the Swifties from the City That is NOT in Kansas are set to put on a show, and I don’t see any feckin’ way this doesn’t turn into a proper fireworks display.
Philly’s got the firepower, tough as nails and meaner than a Philly cab driver in rush hour. The Swifties? Well, they’ve got Mahomes, Kelce, and an entire pop fandom willing to manifest points into existence. And let’s not forget - the only Chiefs Super Bowl that hit the over was against these very Birds.
Expect a track meet, lads - big plays, blown coverages, and enough touchdowns to keep the scoreboard lad sweatin’. Over 48.5 is the play.
Let’s feckin’ cash it! Sláinte!
Birds vs. Swifties Over 48.5
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (9-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5 Cheers
Week 18: GB -10 Boo
Wild Card: Buffalo -7.5 Cheers
Divisional: Hou/KC Under 42.5 Cheers
Championship: KC/BUF Over 47.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Branches: 0-3 KC +10.5 Freshman team sucks
Another Shamlock Cashes!
What did I feckin’ tell ya, lads? The Shamlock delivers again! Like clockwork, the herd of Bison stormed into Cowtown, and just as expected, the scoreboard operator got no mercy. Points flew faster than an arrow in a tribal skirmish, and the Over 47.5 cashed as sweetly as a fresh pint at last call.
Buffalo and KC turned the field into a proper stampede, tradin’ blows and runnin’ up the tally just as predicted. If you weren’t countin’ your winnings by halftime, you must’ve been too deep in the sauce to check.
Sláinte to another Shamlock in the bag, lads! Let’s keep this feckin’ pot o’ gold growin’!
Sure, I could aim for 70%, but why mess with perfection?
Ah, feck that, lads - we ain’t sittin’ at 69% just for the laugh. We’re here to cash another one and push this record where it belongs - higher and heavier on the bookies' backs.
Nice as 69 is, I’d rather be stackin’ gold than gigglin’ like a schoolboy. So, let’s get on with it and land another feckin’ winner. No more flirtin’ with fate - it’s time to feckin’ cash!
History’s got plenty to say about this one!
Back in Super Bowl I, they didn’t even bother postin’ a line - probably ‘cause the bookies were too busy arguin’ whether this newfangled “Super Bowl” was just a glorified exhibition match. Turns out, it stuck. The underdog has hit 48 feckin’ times, while favorites have cashed only 7, with 2 pushes. That’s a proper underdog’s dream, so it is.
And what about points, eh? The over has hit 29 times, but here’s where it gets fun - the Chiefs have been in 4 Super Bowls lately, and the under has hit in 3 of ‘em. The only one that went over? Against these very Eagles. A bit of déjà vu, maybe?
Shamlock of Super Sunday
Alright, lads, time to cash another one! The Birds from Philly and the Swifties from the City That is NOT in Kansas are set to put on a show, and I don’t see any feckin’ way this doesn’t turn into a proper fireworks display.
Philly’s got the firepower, tough as nails and meaner than a Philly cab driver in rush hour. The Swifties? Well, they’ve got Mahomes, Kelce, and an entire pop fandom willing to manifest points into existence. And let’s not forget - the only Chiefs Super Bowl that hit the over was against these very Birds.
Expect a track meet, lads - big plays, blown coverages, and enough touchdowns to keep the scoreboard lad sweatin’. Over 48.5 is the play.
Let’s feckin’ cash it! Sláinte!
Birds vs. Swifties Over 48.5
The Picker
Active member
Super Sunday Results
My apologies for not having a writeup for the Super Bowl. As I mentioned life got in the way on that one. However, the Picker did come through with wins all around so hopefully that brought you some comfort (able winnings).
I cannot say that was how many of us envisioned the game playing out, but for us, followers of the picker - it does not matter. Was not the best post season for the picker ATS as it went 7-6, however it did have a hell of a run on the totals going 9-4, 7-0 post Wild Card weekend and bringing its season total to a respectable 49.7%. Also, while pulling out a respectable 8-5 on the Moneyline.
My apologies for not having a writeup for the Super Bowl. As I mentioned life got in the way on that one. However, the Picker did come through with wins all around so hopefully that brought you some comfort (able winnings).
I cannot say that was how many of us envisioned the game playing out, but for us, followers of the picker - it does not matter. Was not the best post season for the picker ATS as it went 7-6, however it did have a hell of a run on the totals going 9-4, 7-0 post Wild Card weekend and bringing its season total to a respectable 49.7%. Also, while pulling out a respectable 8-5 on the Moneyline.
The Picker
Active member
Shamlock's Final Word for the 2024 Season
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (10-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5 Cheers
Week 18: GB -10 Boo
Wild Card: Buffalo -7.5 Cheers
Divisional: Hou/KC Under 42.5 Cheers
Championship: KC/BUF Over 47.5 Cheers
Super Bowl: KC/Philly Over 48.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Branches: 0-3 KC +10.5 Freshman team sucks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What a feckin’ season that was—plot twists, drama, and a grand ol’ laugh at the end. So much for all that shite talk about the Refs bein’ in the Swifties’ pockets—turns out that theory aged about as well as milk left out in the sun.
Now, this was a season of firsts, especially for meself. Made me debut with Shamlock’s Picks, then rolled out the Efficiency Power Rankings, and wouldn’t ya know it? The final results speak for themselves—not too shabby at all.
And while this chapter closes, I don’t reckon it’s the last you’ll be hearin’ from me. Not to be droppin’ spoilers or nothin’, but ol’ Sport MGCOLBY might have a bit o’ news in the coming days or weeks. Stay tuned, lads.
But enough o’ that—let’s get to the final Power Rankings!
Power Efficiency Rankings
Lads, let’s take a moment to appreciate the **Efficiency Power Rankings—**the gift that kept on givin’ all feckin’ season! 11 winning weeks, 2 at an even 500, and not a single losing week to be found. A clean sheet, as they say—or at least as clean as you can get when dealin’ with the NFL’s weekly circus.
Now, to be fair, I did leave out Week 18, but let’s be honest—that was a pile of shite. Half the teams couldn’t be arsed to try, and the rest were just there for the paycheck. No need to sully a perfect record with that nonsense.
Playoffs? Started with a feckin’ bang at 5-1, then two weekends of playin’ it even, but nailed the Super Bowl when it mattered most. And the reward? A proper 69% winning season. Fate? Destiny? Or just a cheeky nod from the gambling gods? Either way, I’m not complainin’.
101-45 for the season? I’d say these rankings are the feckin’ real deal. Pete Prisco who? That lad couldn’t power rank a pint of Guinness in a Dublin pub!
Shamlock of Super Sunday
Another Shamlock Cashes!
Ah, lads, we got there, but Jaysus, it wasn’t without a bit of sweat at the end. The Birds from Philly did their part, droppin’ a feckin’ 40-burger like they were handin’ out cheesesteaks on Broad Street. But the Swifties? Sure, they were strugglin’ to find the end zone like a drunk lad tryin’ to text his ex—until garbage time bailed ‘em out.
Now, if you’d told me before kickoff that Philly was gonna hang 40, I’d have thought this over was cashin’ by halftime and I’d be sittin’ back with a pint laughin’ me arse off. But no, we had to white-knuckle it to the finish, waitin’ on a few more points to trickle in before that sweet green checkmark hit.
In the end, though, Over 48.5 gets there, another Shamlock in the bag, as we pull the train into the station!
Sláinte, lads!
Shamlock's Shamlocks
Now to the real meat and potatoes—or the shepherd’s pie, if you will. And sure, even you non-Irish lads enjoy a good shepherd’s pie, don’t ya?
10-4 on the season. 71%. Can’t feckin’ go wrong with that, lads. Anyone walkin’ away from the year with a winning record in this game is smilin’, but up 5.6 units on just 14 plays? Well now, that’s not just a solid run-that’s a proper tickle of the balls.
And me? Feckin’ delighted! Couldn’t be happier with how it all played out. A hell of a season, a few sweats, a few laughs, and a whole lot of cashin’ tickets.
Sláinte, lads—what a feckin’ ride! Onto next year!
Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week! (10-4)
Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Week 17: Dallas/Philly Over 41.5 Cheers
Week 18: GB -10 Boo
Wild Card: Buffalo -7.5 Cheers
Divisional: Hou/KC Under 42.5 Cheers
Championship: KC/BUF Over 47.5 Cheers
Super Bowl: KC/Philly Over 48.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Olive Branches: 0-3 KC +10.5 Freshman team sucks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What a feckin’ season that was—plot twists, drama, and a grand ol’ laugh at the end. So much for all that shite talk about the Refs bein’ in the Swifties’ pockets—turns out that theory aged about as well as milk left out in the sun.
Now, this was a season of firsts, especially for meself. Made me debut with Shamlock’s Picks, then rolled out the Efficiency Power Rankings, and wouldn’t ya know it? The final results speak for themselves—not too shabby at all.
And while this chapter closes, I don’t reckon it’s the last you’ll be hearin’ from me. Not to be droppin’ spoilers or nothin’, but ol’ Sport MGCOLBY might have a bit o’ news in the coming days or weeks. Stay tuned, lads.
But enough o’ that—let’s get to the final Power Rankings!
Power Efficiency Rankings
Lads, let’s take a moment to appreciate the **Efficiency Power Rankings—**the gift that kept on givin’ all feckin’ season! 11 winning weeks, 2 at an even 500, and not a single losing week to be found. A clean sheet, as they say—or at least as clean as you can get when dealin’ with the NFL’s weekly circus.
Now, to be fair, I did leave out Week 18, but let’s be honest—that was a pile of shite. Half the teams couldn’t be arsed to try, and the rest were just there for the paycheck. No need to sully a perfect record with that nonsense.
Playoffs? Started with a feckin’ bang at 5-1, then two weekends of playin’ it even, but nailed the Super Bowl when it mattered most. And the reward? A proper 69% winning season. Fate? Destiny? Or just a cheeky nod from the gambling gods? Either way, I’m not complainin’.
101-45 for the season? I’d say these rankings are the feckin’ real deal. Pete Prisco who? That lad couldn’t power rank a pint of Guinness in a Dublin pub!
Shamlock of Super Sunday
Another Shamlock Cashes!
Ah, lads, we got there, but Jaysus, it wasn’t without a bit of sweat at the end. The Birds from Philly did their part, droppin’ a feckin’ 40-burger like they were handin’ out cheesesteaks on Broad Street. But the Swifties? Sure, they were strugglin’ to find the end zone like a drunk lad tryin’ to text his ex—until garbage time bailed ‘em out.
Now, if you’d told me before kickoff that Philly was gonna hang 40, I’d have thought this over was cashin’ by halftime and I’d be sittin’ back with a pint laughin’ me arse off. But no, we had to white-knuckle it to the finish, waitin’ on a few more points to trickle in before that sweet green checkmark hit.
In the end, though, Over 48.5 gets there, another Shamlock in the bag, as we pull the train into the station!
Sláinte, lads!
Shamlock's Shamlocks
Now to the real meat and potatoes—or the shepherd’s pie, if you will. And sure, even you non-Irish lads enjoy a good shepherd’s pie, don’t ya?
10-4 on the season. 71%. Can’t feckin’ go wrong with that, lads. Anyone walkin’ away from the year with a winning record in this game is smilin’, but up 5.6 units on just 14 plays? Well now, that’s not just a solid run-that’s a proper tickle of the balls.
And me? Feckin’ delighted! Couldn’t be happier with how it all played out. A hell of a season, a few sweats, a few laughs, and a whole lot of cashin’ tickets.
Sláinte, lads—what a feckin’ ride! Onto next year!
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Ok, so been working on this for a couple of weeks. Not sure if there is any interest. But the goal is to have fully ready for March Madness. Well as as possible really. And by ready meaning I don't have to do anything manually like input the lines etc... I am close.
1. There is not anywhere near the indepthness of the NFL picker built into this College Basketball picker. I may build upon it over time. Also this is brandy new. I haven't kept a great record of it as I was doing a lot of stuff manually to test things out etc... I built to focus on totals and then added the Line after the fact. But the math was more for the over/under just to be clear.
2. It obviously has no historical record. Its truly pot luck
3. Much, much more work from a data size perspective. 364 NCAA D1 basketball teams.
4. This excercise has shown me that I can handle the data set for college football. However, I really have to figure out how to weight the level of competition. But I want to have a picker for college football this fall as well. Now that I think of it I should do one for the USFL as well. No promises though. Shit may convert this to the NBA too. Who knows.
4. Let me know if you guys are interested in me posting the CBB picker as I go.
Here is tonight's games up until the 11pm games as they are still playing.
Edit: I was awake, so I just went ahead and updated it with the results from the last two games. I tailed it on the totals for the last four games of the night in a parlay and won some cash! Woohoo!
One other note I arbitrarily picked 10+ for the difference on the over and it was 7-3 in that bracket today. Things that make me go hmm.
1. There is not anywhere near the indepthness of the NFL picker built into this College Basketball picker. I may build upon it over time. Also this is brandy new. I haven't kept a great record of it as I was doing a lot of stuff manually to test things out etc... I built to focus on totals and then added the Line after the fact. But the math was more for the over/under just to be clear.
2. It obviously has no historical record. Its truly pot luck
3. Much, much more work from a data size perspective. 364 NCAA D1 basketball teams.
4. This excercise has shown me that I can handle the data set for college football. However, I really have to figure out how to weight the level of competition. But I want to have a picker for college football this fall as well. Now that I think of it I should do one for the USFL as well. No promises though. Shit may convert this to the NBA too. Who knows.
4. Let me know if you guys are interested in me posting the CBB picker as I go.
Here is tonight's games up until the 11pm games as they are still playing.
Edit: I was awake, so I just went ahead and updated it with the results from the last two games. I tailed it on the totals for the last four games of the night in a parlay and won some cash! Woohoo!
One other note I arbitrarily picked 10+ for the difference on the over and it was 7-3 in that bracket today. Things that make me go hmm.
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Where's that Irish fuck thst cost me my house? Stop hiding him
mgcolby
Go Eat a satchel of Richards!
Quick update on the progress. I am still trying to automate this. Working through the kinks. The website I scrape the data from is finicky. Sometimes power query is able to roll through all 364 teams, other times it fails repeatedly. Thanks to Grok I can now code. So, I am looking at better ways to handle the scraping. I know it's ugly. I'll work on that, once I get this other shit done.
Some changes since the last post
1. I added the moneyline odds. I did this primarily because it went 7-4 picking dogs to win outright its first time out of the gate, which would have been a +7.6 units (according espnbet post-game, as I went back to find them). Last night, it went 3-2 - which would have been a +3.2 units. Just something to watch moving forward.
2. It's still doing well on Totals. I started this to bet over/unders as I do not follow CBB and had no idea which teams were good etc... I was just a bored degenerate who figured totals would be a good place to bet, not giving a shit who wins. Which is the opposite of how I started the NFL picker I geared that more towards the spread. Anyway, it had a bad night against the spread and a solid +5 in the totals.
3. It is kicking ass (over two nights) in picking straight up winners. 35-17 (67%).
4. This will be tough to keep up with on a daily basis if I don't fully automate the entire process. Even then, posting it here could be challenging if traveling etc..
5. If things go smooth this morning, I will try to put out today's picks before the games kickoff. As always, use at your own risk, this is an infant. Although I have been using some form of this formula over the past few weeks with pretty good success.
Some changes since the last post
1. I added the moneyline odds. I did this primarily because it went 7-4 picking dogs to win outright its first time out of the gate, which would have been a +7.6 units (according espnbet post-game, as I went back to find them). Last night, it went 3-2 - which would have been a +3.2 units. Just something to watch moving forward.
2. It's still doing well on Totals. I started this to bet over/unders as I do not follow CBB and had no idea which teams were good etc... I was just a bored degenerate who figured totals would be a good place to bet, not giving a shit who wins. Which is the opposite of how I started the NFL picker I geared that more towards the spread. Anyway, it had a bad night against the spread and a solid +5 in the totals.
3. It is kicking ass (over two nights) in picking straight up winners. 35-17 (67%).
4. This will be tough to keep up with on a daily basis if I don't fully automate the entire process. Even then, posting it here could be challenging if traveling etc..
5. If things go smooth this morning, I will try to put out today's picks before the games kickoff. As always, use at your own risk, this is an infant. Although I have been using some form of this formula over the past few weeks with pretty good success.
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