MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024

[The Picker]

Week 13 Shamlock's Efficiency Rankings

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Not a bad week at all, if I do say so meself. And sure, who could argue with the number 69, lads? Well, unless we’re talkin’ about that one time when things got a wee bit fishy—ya know what I mean.

Four straight winning weeks for me power rankings, and I’d call that not too shabby, wouldn’t you? Over 71% of the time, the higher-ranked team put the lower one in its place. The proof’s in the puddin’, lads—this thing’s workin’ like a charm! Sláinte!

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To the Ladder Langers and Plungers for Week 14
First up, the Stallions of Denver and those made-up Birds of Seattle, both leapin’ 7 spots this week. Denver shot up by Donkey-punchin’ the shite outta that Brownie—poor fella’s probably still stuck to the Mile High turf. The Stallions? Sure, they’re likely still cleanin’ up the mess.

Then there’s the fairytale Birds of Seattle, carpet-bombin’ those model airplanes in Jersey. Or was it them goddamn pigeons? Feck knows. Either way, Johnson’s still thinkin’ that model glue doubles as lube, and sadly for his fans, they’re stuck with Johnson’s johnson firmly lodged where it shouldn’t be.

The Cubs? A sneaky 4-spot climb, even after losin’ to those cats in Detroit. Sure, it’s all based on numbers, but between us, I might’ve sprinkled a bit o’ leprechaun dust on ‘em for finally sackin’ that eejit who thought he was a coach. Good riddance!


Now, to the Plungers:
First, the purple birds of Baltimore, takin’ a 12-spot nosedive after those badass birds from Philly swooped in and showed ‘em what real wings look like. Not to mention, the Baltimore lads Tucked it like Buffalo Bill—proper embarrassing.

Next, them gold diggers out in the City of Freaks. Frozen out harder in Buffalo than Ron Jeremy at the Rainbow.

And finally, the mighty mites from Nashville. Marched into DC lookin’ for a scrap, only to get scalped by a team with no feckin’ name. Jaysus, lads, what a mess of a week for some of these lot.

Sláinte, and here’s to Week 15 givin’ us even more chaos!

​

 

[The Picker]

Week 14 Predictions

Alright week 14 already. Its like the season is flying by. Anyway, lets jump right in.

TNF: GB/Det:
The Detroit Lions (11-1) host the Green Bay Packers (9-3) this Thursday night in a pivotal NFC North showdown. The Lions' offense has been firing on all cylinders over the past month, averaging 31.25 points per game and amassing 446.25 yards per game. Quarterback Jared Goff leads a unit that ranks first in the league in total offense. However, Detroit's defense has been hit hard by injuries, with key players like defensive end Aidan Hutchinson sidelined due to a broken tibia and fibula, and linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez out for the season with a torn ACL.

Green Bay enters the game with a balanced attack, averaging 25.5 points per game and allowing just 17.5 points per game over the past month. Their defense has been particularly stout against the run, which could challenge Detroit's top-ranked rushing offense. The Packers' offense, led by quarterback Jordan Love, has been efficient, with Love completing 21 of 28 passes for 278 yards in their recent win against the Dolphins.

Despite the Lions' impressive offensive numbers, the multitude of injuries on defense raises concerns. With Hutchinson's absence impacting the pass rush and the D Line basically decimated (Alim McNeil is the only Dlineman playing Thursday that was on the Roster week 1), along with multiple linebackers on injured reserve….Detroit's defense may struggle to contain Green Bay's balanced offense. While the Lions are favored, the Packers' momentum and Detroit's defensive woes could make this matchup closer than anticipated. I am a huge fan of the Lions this season. But this divisional game is a tough spot for them, short week, a ton of injuries on defense etc...The only thing really giving them hope to cover here is they are home and their offense is capable of putting up 40+. Thinking I may disagree with the picker here and take the over.

Head Scratchers:
CAR/PHI:
The Eagles host the Panthers in a matchup where Philly is laying 12.5 points, and it’s not hard to see why. Over the past month, the Eagles have been dominant on both sides of the ball, averaging 30.25 points per game (ppg) while allowing just 15.75. Their defense has been especially suffocating, giving up only 268 yards per game (ypg) and holding opponents to a mere 4.8 yards per play. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts and company continue to churn out nearly 380 ypg, showcasing a balanced attack that few teams have been able to slow down.

Carolina, on the other hand, has been competitive but inconsistent. Over the last month, they’ve averaged 23.25 ppg, but their defense has been a liability, surrendering a hefty 401.25 ypg and 23.75 ppg. The Panthers’ 5.8 yards per play allowed highlights a unit that struggles to limit big plays, something that could be disastrous against an Eagles offense that thrives in those situations. If there’s a bright spot for Carolina, it’s that they’ve found a rhythm offensively, even if it hasn’t translated into wins.

Philadelphia’s defense has been dealing with some injuries, but the return of key players like DeVonta Smith and Darius Slay could make an already lopsided matchup even tougher for Carolina. The 12.5-point spread is steep, but considering the Eagles’ dominance and the Panthers’ defensive issues, it’s tough to argue against it. As for Shamlock’s Efficiency Rankings—Philly at 2 and Carolina at 19—the leprechaun might finally be onto something here. I want to disagree with the picker here and take the Eagles -12.5. The thing that prevents me is they are coming off a cross country game out in LA and a hard fought physical battle against Baltimore. Also the Panthers have nothing to lose here. I am amazed that all three models are rolling with the dog here. I think I will lay off this one.

NYG/NO:
The Giants return home to host the Saints in a matchup where New Orleans is laying 5.5 points. Over the past month, the Saints have averaged 22.75 points per game (ppg) while surrendering just 18.75, thanks in large part to a bend-but-don’t-break defense that’s been solid in critical moments. Offensively, they’ve been moving the ball effectively, averaging 398 yards per game (ypg), though their 17.5 yards per point efficiency suggests they’re leaving points on the field. Defensively, they’ve been solid, particularly in the red zone, holding opponents to a 51.4% touchdown rate.

The Giants, meanwhile, continue to struggle offensively, managing only 16.5 ppg and 290 ypg over the last month. On defense, things haven’t been much better—they’ve allowed 26 ppg and 358 ypg, with a concerning inability to stop opponents on third down. Their 42.4% red zone conversion rate on offense adds to their woes, making it difficult to keep up with even middling offenses like New Orleans.

The Saints’ road inconsistencies add some intrigue here, but the Giants’ inability to execute on offense makes them tough to back. The 5.5-point spread feels manageable for New Orleans, who should control the pace with their efficient offense and reliable defense. The wild card here is the loss of Hill. He does so much for that offense, especially from an opponent game planning perspective that I really don't know to what level that will deal a blow to New Orleans. The total of 40.5 points looks conservative, but given the Giants’ offensive struggles, a low-scoring affair seems likely.

CHI/SF:
The Bears head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in a matchup of two struggling teams, with the Niners laying 4.5 points. Over the past month, neither team has been lighting up the scoreboard. Chicago has averaged 17.25 points per game (ppg) while allowing 23 ppg, and their offense has been a slog, putting up just 308 yards per game (ypg). On the flip side, the 49ers are scoring a measly 15 ppg but giving up a whopping 28.25 ppg during the same stretch. Talk about an unstoppable force meeting a very movable object.

San Francisco’s defense has been unusually leaky, surrendering 387.75 ypg over the last month, but their offense hasn’t done them any favors. Averaging just 6.2 yards per play (YPP) and converting only 48.9% of their red zone opportunities, they’ve struggled to capitalize when it counts. The Bears, meanwhile, have been equally ineffective in the red zone, with a 66.7% conversion rate that looks better on paper but hasn’t translated into wins.

The 44-point total feels about right, as both teams have shown they can grind out points without much flash. The spread, however, might be too generous to the 49ers, given their recent defensive struggles. Shamlock might have the Bears ranked 26th and the Niners 28th, but let’s be honest—the Irishman probably took the week off for this one. This feels like a coin flip, with both teams trying to find any semblance of momentum. Take the points if you must, but I would tread lightly.

Game of the Week:
LAC/KC:
The Chargers head to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs in what feels like the game of the week. Both teams have been steady over the past month, but Kansas City holds the edge as the home team, averaging 21.5 points per game (ppg) while allowing just 22. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been the more explosive team offensively, putting up 25.25 ppg but conceding 21.75. With two evenly matched offenses (5.3 YPP for the Chargers vs. 5.2 for the Chiefs), this one could come down to who makes the fewest mistakes.

Kansas City’s defense has been slightly better at limiting yardage, allowing 348.5 yards per game (ypg) compared to the Chargers’ 370 ypg. However, the Chiefs’ 52.1% red zone efficiency on offense has left points on the board, a stat that could be exploited by a Chargers team that has converted 53.3% of their trips inside the 20. Defensively, the Chiefs have shown cracks in critical situations, allowing a 51.3% red zone success rate.

The Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites, but the Chargers’ offensive firepower makes this spread tricky. The over/under of 43 feels low given the combined scoring potential and defensive inconsistencies on both sides. Shamlock might have the Chiefs at 14 and the Chargers at 12, but with these margins, it’s anyone’s game. A tight, middle-scoring clash seems inevitable in Arrowhead. I like the Chargers with the points, and I like them to pull off the upset in KC too.

MNF:
CIN/DAL: Monday Night Football heads to AT&T Stadium as the Cowboys host the Bengals in what is most likely to be a high-scoring affair. Over the past month, Cincinnati’s offense has been electric, averaging 35 points per game (ppg) and a whopping 417.5 yards per game (ypg). Joe Burrow has been dealing, the Bengals are converting 71.1% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. However, the Bengals’ defense has been a mess, allowing 34.25 ppg and 390.25 ypg. It’s been a shootout every week for Cincinnati, and they’re 50/50 on whether that formula works.

Dallas, on the other hand, has been struggling offensively, putting up just 19.25 ppg on 295.75 ypg over the last month. The Cowboys’ defense has been equally uninspiring, allowing 28.5 ppg. That kind of production doesn’t bode well against the Bengals’ juggernaut attack. Their 43.8% red zone success rate on offense and an abysmal 76.9% touchdown rate allowed on defense in the red zone highlight just how tough things have been for Dallas in critical moments.

With Cincinnati favored by 5.5, it’s hard to trust a Dallas team that hasn’t shown it can keep up offensively or defensively. The 50-point total feels attainable given both defenses’ struggles and Cincinnati’s firepower. I think I will have to roll out the chalk for this one.

 

[Lord Guts]

What we betting the mortgage on

 

[The Picker]

Alright', I’ll have me Shamlock of the Week up a bit later today, lads. I tried postin’ it early in the week before, but Jaysus, the lines move faster than a lad leggin’ it from the pub without payin’ his tab! Thought I’d wait this time and see where the dust settles. Stay tuned, eh?

Ah, if you’re not followin’ me on that X thing (Shamlock), you’re proper missin’ out on these wee nuggets o’ gold, so ya are!


"Talkin' Shite with Shamlock: Ah, plenty o’ cats at the vet in Detroit this week, especially them big feckers on defense. The Cheeseheads are headin’ to the Motor City, lookin’ to put the kitties to sleep, so they are. But I don’t reckon there’ll be any tailpipe Packin’ from them Green Bay lads. One thing’s for sure, though—the poor scoreboard fella’ll have a sore wrist when this one’s all said and done!

"

 

[The Picker]

Shamlock of Week 14

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 3-2​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!

Yes, lads, isn’t it a fine sight when the tickets are cashin’ and the pot o' gold's lookin’ healthier than a leprechaun with a fresh pint! Big thanks to the boys from the Iron City—or maybe we should be thankin’ the gambling gods for blessin’ us with Jameis Winston and his divine gift of pick sixes. Here’s hopin’ the good Lord takes his time deliverin’ him from those pick sixes—We love the feckers!

Now, onto this week’s Shamlock! Down in Miami, the fish’ll be swimmin’ freely, and not a Dolphin’ll get tangled in the tuna net, so they won’t. As for those model airplanes? I reckon they’ll crash and burn a few times before findin’ the end zone. Points will be flyin’, lads, and that’s where the magic is this week.

NY Jets @ Miami Over 45

Let’s keep the winnings rollin’, lads. Sláinte!

 

[mgcolby]

Week 14 Results

A good week ATS and Straight up by the new models. The OG had a push. And then a kick to the berries by a mule. That one is rough. I will be honest I am not a big over under player typically. So I tend to not follow that as much as I imagine others do. The new models didn't fair much better on the over unders but it was better than the original. But they did have another winning week. For those counting that is back-to-back winning weeks for the new models and they are 5-4-1 ATS on the season thus far, going 5-2-1 over the past 8 weeks. They are 66-49-1 during that stretch or 57%.

My season goal for the new models is to finish the regular season at a minimum of 55%. 56+ would be outstanding, but 55% is the goal heading into the playoffs. I am putting together a weekly tracker to count how many wins it needs to reach between 50 and 60%. Its a damn shame its losing weeks were so lopsided and not the 6-8, 7-9 variety. They were all 4 and 5 win weeks which really stings. But hopefully it continues its winning ways down the stretch. Just for the record I am shooting for the OG to finish at 50%, so it can go out with its golden watch and its head held up high.

In addition, I will be rolling out its record based on the predicted spread differential. Have to go back through the weekly workbooks and see where the two mismatches are. I should have that figured out sometime tomorrow.




Original

Model 1


Model 2

 

[mgcolby]

As promised the spread differential record. I believe it is self-explanatory but with you fucking neanderthals you never know.

From now on I will add it to the weekly predictions post for easier use with the picker models. For now posting it here so you can check it out. Not sure if its really useful or not. I kept up with it for a long time and this year just let it go to the way side in the new workbook not fixing broken formula links.

Was hoping to have a new feature to test out before the season ends. Not sure if I will get it done in time. Seemed a bit easier than it has turned out to be. But will keep plugging away at it and at a minimum hope to run it against this years data and to see its accuracy then add it as a new "confidence" feature next year along with the predictions.

 

[The Picker]

Week 15 Predictions
Another week is upon us. Hoping for another winning week. I want to make one note but I am rolling my write ups over to Model 2. I know I said I would use the original picker for the whole season. But I think enough data is in thus far and also this week they only differ on three games. With that said I got a little crazy with the cheese whiz this week with 11 write ups. Probably should of just did the rest of the games. Maybe I will before Sunday.


TNF: Rams @ 49ers
The Rams visit San Francisco in a divisional matchup that promises fireworks. Both teams have shown their share of flaws over the past month, but it’s the Rams who’ve been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging 28.25 points per game (ppg) on 367.75 yards per game (ypg). The problem? Their defense has been a turnstile, allowing 28.75 ppg and an eye-popping 408.75 ypg. It’s a feast-or-famine setup that seems tailor-made for chaos.

The 49ers, by contrast, have leaned heavily on their defense, allowing just 287 ypg, the fourth-best mark in the league over the last month. Recently however, their offense has been pedestrian up until last week. Scoring only 18.75 ppg, including last week's game and struggling in the red zone with a 52.9% touchdown rate. Their 6.3 yards per play (YPP) on offense shows they can move the ball, but finishing drives has been a glaring issue. Against a Rams defense that’s allowing nearly 29 ppg, they could keep the offensive wagon rolling steady.

The spread sits at 3.5, with San Francisco as the favorite, but the Rams’ offensive firepower makes this game tough to call. The 47-point total feels attainable given the Rams’ defensive struggles and the Niners’ efficiency on a per-play basis. I like the Rams here and the over. This should be a fun one.

Patriots @ Cardinals:
The Patriots head to the desert to face the Cardinals in a matchup where Arizona is laying 6.5 points. Over the past month, the Patriots have shown flashes offensively, averaging 350.25 yards per game (ypg), but the production hasn’t translated into points, sitting at just 20 per game. Their red zone offense has been particularly ineffective, converting only 44.7% of trips into touchdowns. Defensively, they’ve held their own, allowing 22.5 points per game (ppg) and just 292.5 ypg, but it hasn’t been enough to compensate for their lackluster scoring.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are putting up 19.25 ppg while allowing 18.75 over the same stretch. Their 5.9 yards per play (YPP) on offense indicates an ability to move the ball, but red zone efficiency at 51.2% leaves plenty to be desired. Arizona’s defense has been slightly better in key situations, holding opponents to 47.8% success in the red zone, which could be the difference against a Patriots offense that already struggles to finish drives.

The over/under at 44.5 feels spot on, as neither team has shown the firepower to consistently light up the scoreboard. With a spread of 6.5, the Patriots seem like a live dog, particularly if their defense can frustrate Arizona in the red zone. Shamlock might have Arizona ranked 15th and New England 20th, but let’s be honest, the leprechaun isn’t betting his pot of gold on either of these teams. This one feels like a grind. With the picker here, I'd take the points and the under.

Head Scratchers:
Ravens @ Giants
The Ravens travel to the Meadowlands as 15-point favorites against the struggling Giants, and let’s just say, the numbers don’t make a strong case for New York pulling off an upset. Over the past month, Baltimore’s offense has been humming along, averaging 25 points per game (ppg) and a robust 369.75 yards per game (ypg). Meanwhile, their defense has shown some cracks, allowing 24.75 ppg, but their ability to generate 6.8 yards per play (YPP) offensively keeps them ahead of most opponents.

The Giants, on the other hand, are limping into this matchup, averaging just 13.75 ppg and 289.75 ypg over the last month. With a dismal 41.7% red zone conversion rate, they’ve struggled to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Their defense has been slightly better, holding teams to 22.75 ppg, but with an offense this anemic, even a decent defensive effort feels like a drop in the bucket against a team like Baltimore.

The 44.5-point total feels about right, as this game could easily devolve into a Baltimore-dominated affair. The Ravens’ offensive efficiency and the Giants’ inability to put points on the board make the 15-point spread look attainable for Baltimore. I think Baltimore covers, and the under might be worth a look. But overall, this is a bit to rich for me. I'm a no play on this one .

Bonus Write Ups:
Can't really find another head scratcher so I guess I'll give a couple of bonus writeup on some other good games.

Dolphins @ Texans:
The Miami Dolphins head to Houston to face the Texans in a matchup with significant playoff implications. Miami, riding a four-game winning streak, has averaged 29.25 points per game over the past month, while their defense has allowed 22.5 points per game. Houston, leading the AFC South, has averaged 26.75 points offensively and conceded 22 points per game in the same span. Notably, Miami's red zone efficiency stands at 58.5%, compared to Houston's 53.3%.

Defensively, the Texans have been formidable, ranking second in the league with a 43.8% pressure rate. This could spell trouble for Miami's offensive line, especially with left tackle Terron Armstead dealing with a knee injury that may sideline him. Rookie Patrick Paul is expected to step in, but his inexperience could be a vulnerability against Houston's pass rush.

Historically, the Texans have held the upper hand in this series, winning eight of their eleven matchups. However, recent trends suggest a shift, as Miami has taken three of the last four meetings. With both teams eyeing playoff positioning, this game feels like a pivotal test. Miami’s dynamic offense will look to maintain its high-scoring ways, but Houston’s relentless pass rush could be the equalizer. Expect a tightly contested game where every possession will matter. Probably a rare over bet for me on Draft Kings. Either way should be an excellent game.

Browns @ Chiefs:
The Chiefs host the Browns in a matchup with playoff implications for both teams. Kansas City has been steady if unspectacular over the past month, averaging 22.25 points per game (ppg) while allowing 22.75. The Chiefs’ offense has been efficient on a per-play basis (5.1 YPP) but struggles in the red zone, converting just 51% of trips into touchdowns. On the other hand, Cleveland’s defense has been porous, surrendering 30.5 ppg and 377 yards per game (ypg) over the same span, suggesting the Chiefs might find some breathing room offensively.

Cleveland’s offense, meanwhile, has been racking up yards (399.75 ypg) but failing to translate that into consistent scoring, averaging just 21 ppg. Their 4.7 YPP (yards per point) highlights inefficiency, particularly compared to Kansas City’s defensive mark of 5.3 YPP (yards per point) allowed. The Browns have also been a disaster in the red zone defensively, allowing opponents to convert 60% of opportunities, which could tilt the game further in Kansas City’s favor.

The spread sits at -6.5 for Kansas City, and it’s hard to see Cleveland covering given their defensive struggles. However the Chiefs just can't seem to put anyone away regardless of their opponent's quality level. The over/under of 44.5 feels attainable if the Browns can maintain their yardage production, but turnovers have been an issue, with Cleveland tied for the fourth-most giveaways in the league. I would play the percentages here and throw a buck or two on the dawg here.

Steelers @ Eagles:
The Steelers head to Philly for a Keystone State showdown as 5.5-point underdogs in what could be a closer game than the spread suggests. Over the past month, Pittsburgh has averaged 27 points per game (ppg) and 364.5 yards per game (ypg), showing life offensively after a sluggish start to the season. Their defense, while not elite, has held opponents to 23 ppg and 327 ypg. One glaring weakness is their red zone struggles on offense, converting only 45.7% of trips into touchdowns—something they can’t afford against the Eagles.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has been as steady as they come, averaging 27.25 ppg while allowing just 18.25, all while holding opponents to 307 ypg over the last month. The Eagles’ efficiency shines, with a 59.2% red zone touchdown rate on offense and just 48.7% allowed on defense. They’re also winning the battle in the trenches, allowing just 4.7 yards per play (YPP) compared to the Steelers’ 5.3, and their ground game ranks fourth in rushing yards per game, a potential issue for Pittsburgh’s inconsistent run defense.

The over/under at 45.5 feels attainable with both teams showing offensive sparks recently. While Philly’s the clear favorite, Pittsburgh’s improved offense and knack for keeping games close could make the 5.5-point spread interesting. The Picker likes the Eagles for the win, but I think the Steelers make it uncomfortable. Expect Philly to pull it out, but this could be tighter than expected.

Buccaneers @ Chargers:
The Buccaneers head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers as 3.5-point underdogs in a matchup that’s closer than it might seem at first glance. Over the past month, Tampa Bay’s offense has been humming, averaging 26 points per game (ppg) on 382.75 yards per game (ypg). Their efficiency in the red zone has been stellar, converting 68.6% of trips into touchdowns. Meanwhile, their defense has been lights out, allowing just 16.5 ppg and holding opponents to 5.6 yards per play (YPP).

The Chargers, on the other hand, have struggled with consistency. Their offense has managed 22.75 ppg and 298.75 ypg, but a red zone conversion rate of 54.5% highlights missed opportunities. Defensively, the Chargers have been vulnerable, giving up 372.25 ypg and allowing opponents to score on 41.9% of red zone trips. While their 5.2 YPP allowed is respectable, it’s been big plays at critical moments that have kept them on the wrong side of close games.

The over/under of 46.5 feels doable here, but the real value lies in Tampa Bay’s ability to cover the spread—or even win outright. With the Bucs’ recent dominance on both sides of the ball, this feels like a game where the Chargers’ defensive issues could be exposed. Shamlock’s likely grumbling about the Chargers’ inefficiency while giving a sly nod to Tampa’s potential for an upset. I like Tampa here a lot.

SNF:
The Packers travel to Seattle for what promises to be a close contest, with Green Bay favored by 3.5. Over the past month, Green Bay’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging 29.75 points per game (ppg) on 344.25 yards per game (ypg). They’ve also been efficient in the red zone, converting 57.4% of opportunities into touchdowns. However, their defense has been suspect, allowing 349.5 ypg and showing vulnerability against the run.

Seattle’s recent performances paint a different picture. The Seahawks have averaged 23 ppg on 310.5 ypg over the last month, with their defense standing out, giving up just 15.5 ppg and holding opponents to a mere 5.4 yards per play (YPP). Seattle’s red zone defense has been particularly effective, allowing touchdowns on only 52.2% of trips, which could be key in limiting Green Bay’s high-powered attack.

The over/under sits at 47, and with both offenses capable of putting up points, the over could hit here. Seattle’s defensive edge and home-field advantage make the +3.5 spread intriguing, especially if they can pressure Jordan Love and force mistakes. I think this one will be razor-close. Feels like a last-second field goal could decide this one. I have not had much confidence in Seattle the past several weeks and they keep proving me wrong. I know Green Bay is playing excellent football, but with Seattle keeping things close its hard not to take the points here.

Game of the Week:
Bills @ Lions:
The Lions host the Bills in what could be a Super Bowl preview and the game of the week. Over the past month, Detroit has been lighting it up offensively, averaging 457.75 yards per game (ypg) and 33.25 points per game, both of which lead the league. Their defense has also been solid, allowing just 15.75 ppg and 259.25 ypg. Add to that a league-best 47.2% defensive red zone success rate, and it’s clear why Detroit is slightly favored in this showdown.

Buffalo, however, isn’t far behind. The Bills are averaging 34.25 ppg and 399.5 ypg over the past month, fueled by Josh Allen and a strong ground game that ranks fifth in the league. But their defense has been a bit shakier, allowing 23.75 ppg and 329 ypg in that span. One area to watch is the Bills' struggles in the red zone on defense, allowing opponents to score touchdowns 54.2% of the time, which could be a problem against a Lions offense converting 67.3% of its red zone trips.

The 1.5-point spread in Detroit’s favor reflects just how tight this matchup is, and the over/under of 51.5 feels like a lock given these two high-powered offenses. Two efficient offenses, questionable defenses in key spots (especially the injury front for the Lions) and a Detroit team finally living up to its hype. This should be a barnburner, and the Lions’ home-field advantage might be just enough to secure the win. Lean Detroit on the Moneyline and the over here.

MNF: Another two-fer. Stupid contract the NFL signed. Maybe I'm in the minority but I am not a fan of the two Monday night games. Opening week was fine when they had an early (East coast game) and late (West coast game) but two essentially at the same time is not all that appealing to me. Anyway off my soap box. Not to mention two less than inspiring games on the docket. May get some brownie points here with the Mrs and find a hallmark movie, probably more digestible than these two duds.

Bears @ Vikings:
The Bears travel to Minnesota in what looks like a lopsided divisional clash. Over the past month, the Vikings have been rolling offensively, averaging 29.5 points per game (ppg) and 369 yards per game (ypg). While their defense has given up 398.5 ypg, they’ve held opponents to just 20.75 ppg, thanks to timely stops and a decent red zone success rate, allowing touchdowns on 54.1% of opponent trips. This is a team finding ways to win despite giving up chunks of yardage.

Chicago, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction. Over the last month, the Bears have managed just 19.75 ppg while giving up a staggering 27.75 ppg and 418.75 ypg. Their defense has been porous, especially against the pass, allowing 5.9 yards per play (YPP). Offensively, their red zone efficiency of 69% looks decent on paper but hasn’t been enough to compensate for their defensive struggles. To make matters worse, Caleb Williams has taken a league-high 25 sacks over the past month, and with Minnesota’s pass rush heating up, it could be a long day for the Bears’ offense.

With the Vikings favored by 5.5, it’s hard to see Chicago covering unless their defense suddenly finds its footing. The total of 42.5 feels reachable with Minnesota’s offensive output and Chicago’s defensive woes. Shamlock’s likely betting his pot of gold on the Vikings here, and honestly, who could blame him? This one feels like a blowout waiting to happen.

Falcons @ Raiders:
The Falcons head to Las Vegas to face the Raiders in a matchup that only has draft positioning at stake. Atlanta has struggled mightily over the past month, averaging just 14.25 points per game (ppg) despite putting up 385 yards per game (ypg). Their inefficiency is glaring, with a league-worst 27.0 yards per point (YPPt), a stat that highlights their inability to finish drives. Defensively, it doesn’t get much better—they’re allowing 29.25 ppg and a brutal 61.9% red zone success rate to opponents.

The Raiders haven’t been much better, managing only 17 ppg on 354.25 ypg over the same span. Their offense is stagnant, with a 45.7% red zone conversion rate that ranks near the bottom of the league. Defensively, Las Vegas has given up 27.5 ppg and 356.75 ypg, and much like Atlanta, they’ve been exposed in the red zone, allowing a 62% success rate. While both teams are defensively porous, the Raiders’ slight edge in limiting big plays could prove pivotal.

The 44-point total feels a bit generous considering both teams’ scoring woes. With the Raiders as 4.5-point underdogs, this game could easily come down to a field goal, making the spread worth a second look. If anything, this matchup feels like a test of which team can make fewer mistakes. Lean Raiders, but don’t expect fireworks.

 

[Lord Guts]

Bruh how's the Picker with the queefs?
they're like 0-7 ATS the past 7 games

 

[mgcolby]

The picker is not, all three models have the Browns.

 

[The Picker]

Week 15 Shamlock's Efficiency Rankings

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Now, let’s start with the good news: for the fifth straight week, the higher-ranked team beat the lower-ranked team. That’s consistency, lads! The bad news? An 8-5 record isn’t exactly somethin’ to write home about, but hey, a winnin’ week is still a winnin’ week, right?

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This Week’s Ladder Langers and Plungers

Ah, lads, I’ve got to admit—this week’s Ladder Langers and Plungers is a bit of a snooze fest. Mostly bottom dwellers shufflin’ about with one exception. But hey, let’s crack on, shall we?

To This Week’s Langers:

The Cattle Ranchers of Dallas – Rope their way up seven spots from 29 to 22, despite gettin’ Oruwariye’d on that blocked punt. Jerrah’s Boys, eh? Masters of snatchin’ defeat from the jaws of victory. Grand entertainment, though!

The Gold Diggers of the Bay – Jump five slots this week after a proper big game hunt against them defenseless teddies from Chicago. Sure, it’s like shootin’ fish in a barrel, but up they go.

The Little People of New York – Use the ladder to step up five spots as well, but only because five other teams managed to outdo them in sheer ineptitude. Jaysus, that’s no compliment!

This Week’s Plungers:

The Red Birds of the Desert – Biggest plungers of the week, droppin’ nine spots after puttin’ on an embarrassin’ show of football at home. Looked more like pigeons than cardinals out there.

The Birds from Atlanta – Fallin’ outta the sky faster than Cousins can lob a pass straight to the wrong feckin’ team. Rough week for the feathered ones.

The Jets – Ah, the Jets. Still unable to take off, stuck on the landing strip like they’re a washed-up 90’s porn star. Someone get ‘em some feckin’ lift, will ya?



There ya have it, lads. Not the most excitin’ week for the rankings, but sometimes the circus takes a break before bringin’ the big show. Sláinte!

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[The Picker]

Shamlock of Week 15

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 4-2​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Ah, lads, what did I tell ya? The fish were swimmin’ free, the Dolphins dodged the tuna net, and them model airplanes? Jaysus, they crashed and burned just as predicted! Points flew faster than a leprechaun after last call, and the Over 45 cashed in nicely.
That’s the magic o’ the Shamlock, isn’t it? A fine call, a fattenin’ pot o’ gold, and smiles all ‘round. Sláinte to us, lads—let’s keep it rollin’!

Now to the week at hand lads! Them Pirates of the Bay of Tampa’ll be settin’ sail for the City of Angels, so they will, huntin’ for booty like the scallywags they are. Pillage and plunder’ll be the order o’ the day, and not even a bleedin’ lightning storm’ll slow ‘em down, mark me words.

Tampa Bay +3
Or if you’ve got the stones, take the feckin’ Money Line and see where the tide takes ya. Sure, fortune favours the bold, doesn’t it?

 

[Lord Guts]

Shamlock of Week 15


View attachment 13960

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 4-2​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!
Ah, lads, what did I tell ya? The fish were swimmin’ free, the Dolphins dodged the tuna net, and them model airplanes? Jaysus, they crashed and burned just as predicted! Points flew faster than a leprechaun after last call, and the Over 45 cashed in nicely.
That’s the magic o’ the Shamlock, isn’t it? A fine call, a fattenin’ pot o’ gold, and smiles all ‘round. Sláinte to us, lads—let’s keep it rollin’!

Now to the week at hand lads! Them Pirates of the Bay of Tampa’ll be settin’ sail for the City of Angels, so they will, huntin’ for booty like the scallywags they are. Pillage and plunder’ll be the order o’ the day, and not even a bleedin’ lightning storm’ll slow ‘em down, mark me words.

Tampa Bay +3
Or if you’ve got the stones, take the feckin’ Money Line and see where the tide takes ya. Sure, fortune favours the bold, doesn’t it?

Putting the mortgage on Tampa

 

[The Picker]

Week 15 Results

Looked like it may have been a 9 win week but no.. the goddamn BS in the Commanders game and then the Raiders...well doing Raider things. Anyway 7-9 is not what we are looking for but as far as losing weeks go, at least it wasn't another blowout. Still on track for model 2 to finish up around 53% for the season, and with some luck in its favor hitting the goal of 55%. I added a "Count Down to 55" to show how many wins are needed to hit each percentage. I'll update it each week.

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Original


Model 1


Model 2

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[The Picker]

Week 16 Shamlock's Power Efficiency Rankings

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Another double-digit week for the ER Rankings, lads—that’s 5 outta 7 now! Add to that 7 winning weeks pickin’ straight-up winners, and you’d have to say the formula’s holdin’ its own nicely.

That said, there’s a real head-scratcher in the mix this week, as you’ll see below. But overall? I’m chuffed with how the rankings are shapin’ up. Sure, there’s always room for a tweak or two, but we’re in a good spot.
Sláinte to keepin’ it rollin’!

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To This Week’s Langers:
The Cattle Ranchers of Dallas: Ah, these feckin’ heifers are relentless, aren’t they? Shittin’ all over me power rankings like it’s their God-given right. I mean, the rankings have been solid as a rock, but Jerrah’s boys just keep pissin’ in me bloody cheerios. Cheers, lads, appreciate it.

The Head Honchos from that City in Kansas: Now, there’s a bit o’ relief! Thank you for bringin’ some sanity back to the rankings. Jaysus, I’d be lost without you lot holdin’ the line.

The Pacifists from the City of Sin: Cellar dwellers movin’ about, despite their losin’ ways. Raidin’, are ya? Sure, what’s next? Nabbing biscuits from Grandma’s kitchen? Jaysus, lads, ye’d want to get yourselves sorted.

This Week’s Plungers:
The Cats from Motor City: Ah, the mighty have fallen! They’ve lost their grip on the top spot and plunged twelve spots like a feckin’ Pinto with no brakes. Jaysus, lads, what happened out there?

The Bolts of Los Angeles (by way of San Diego): Another good team takin’ a tumble. The Plungers are lookin’ more like Langers this week—it’s like we’ve wandered into an alternate universe. Feck me, I think I need a stiff drink after this madness!

The Patsies of Foxboro: Or is it Foxborough? Who even knows, and more to the point, who feckin’ cares anymore? Unless, o’ course, you’re Christmas shopping and headin’ to Bass Pro Shop for some proper tackle—might find more fight there than on the field!

Sláinte to the madness, lads!

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[The Picker]

Week 16 Predictions

Note: Had an eventful week so running a bit behind on these. I will finish the writeups tomorrow. Hit a bit of a wall tonight.

Only three weeks left. Hard to believe the season has flown by so fast. It also means three weeks left of full slate football to bet on. Enjoy it folks. You'll be missing it in no time. As stated last week I included the record by spread differential.
Just a quick note, the sweet spot for the spread differential is 6+:
Model 1 at 6+ is 67%
Model 2 at 6+ is 66%

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Head Scratchers
Texans @ Chiefs
The Texans head to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs as 3-point underdogs in a matchup that could be a sneaky thriller. Over the past month, Houston has been on a roll offensively, putting up 26 points per game (ppg) while allowing just 18.5 ppg. Their defense has been particularly strong in limiting big plays, holding opponents to 4.9 yards per play (YPP), and they’ve excelled in the red zone with a 54.2% touchdown rate allowed. For an offense that averages just 289.5 yards per game (ypg), Houston has found ways to be efficient, ranking among the league leaders with an 11.1 yards per point (YPPt).

Kansas City’s offense has shown flashes, averaging 22.25 ppg and 332.25 ypg over the past month. However, their red zone struggles stand out—they’ve converted just 50.9% of opportunities into touchdowns. Defensively, the Chiefs have been solid, giving up only 17 ppg, but their 5.2 YPP allowed leaves room for concern, especially against an opportunistic Texans offense. The Chiefs’ defense has also been average against the pass, which could open the door for C.J. Stroud to make plays if Houston’s offensive line can hold up against Kansas City’s pass rush.

The total sits at a low 39.5, reflecting respect for both defenses, but the Texans’ recent scoring surge makes the over intriguing. Houston’s ability to turn limited yardage into points and their stout defensive play suggest they’re live underdogs here. Shamlock might be raising a pint for the Texans, who have every chance to win outright, but don’t count on it being pretty. This one feels like a grind until the final whistle. I assume Mahomes will play this week and I agree with the picker here. I like the points and the over in this one.

Jets @ Rams
I know at first take this seems like a no brainer. I also can't say I don't agree. But here is why the picker came out of the lab with its craziness.
Over the past month, the Jets’ offense has been surprisingly productive, averaging 26.5 points per game (ppg) while allowing 27.75 ppg on the other side. Defensively, the Jets have allowed 5.0 yards per play (YPP), better than the league average, but their red zone defense has been a weak spot, giving up touchdowns on 60% of opponent trips.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been a mixed bag. Over the last four games, they’ve averaged 24.25 ppg and 342.75 yards per game (ypg). The issue for Los Angeles lies in their defense, which has allowed 361 ypg and 24.75 ppg. They’ve struggled to stop the run, giving up 142 rushing yards per game in this span, a stat the Jets’ run-heavy offense could exploit. Offensively, the Rams have been slightly more efficient in the red zone than the Jets, converting 53.8% of their opportunities into touchdowns compared to the Jets’ 53.3%.

The over/under of 46.5 feels right on the money given both teams' offensive capabilities and defensive inconsistencies. The Jets’ ability to control the clock with their ground game and the Rams’ propensity to give up big plays could make this a tight one. I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets sneakily cover the spread here. You have cross country flight, looks to be cold in the Meadowlands on Sunday and that could all add to reasons why the Jets hang around. I just can't see the dysfunctional Jets getting up for this one and the Rams are playing for the division. Probably a no play for me.

Eagles @ Commanders
The Eagles travel to Washington to face the Commanders in a divisional clash with playoff implications. Philadelphia comes in as 3.5-point favorites, bolstered by a defense that has been stifling opponents over the past month, allowing just 17 points per game and 281.75 total yards. The Eagles' pass rush has been dominant, averaging 2.8 sacks per game, which sets up a nightmare scenario for Washington's offensive line that has allowed an alarming 17 sacks in their last four outings.

The Commanders’ offense, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, has been productive despite the pressure, averaging 26.5 points per game. Daniels’ mobility has been critical in extending plays, but without wide receiver Noah Brown (out for the season), the focus shifts to rookie Luke McCaffrey and veteran Dyami Brown to pick up the slack. The Eagles' defense, which allows just 4.7 yards per play, could make it a tough day for Daniels and the Commanders offense. On the flipside the Commanders defense allowed 228 rushing yards to Barkley in their last matchup. They will need to stiffen up the run defense to give themselves a chance to win this game.

With an over/under set at 45.5, this game could hinge on whether Washington can protect Daniels long enough to challenge the Eagles’ defense. On the flip side, Philly’s efficient offense, led by Jalen Hurts, continues to produce, scoring 27.5 points per game. The Commanders’ defensive front will need to improve on its 65% red zone touchdown rate allowed to keep the Eagles from running away with this one. It’s a divisional matchup that should deliver plenty of drama—and sacks. The Eagles busted the game open with Barkley in the 4th quarter last time these two teams met in Philly a few weeks ago. I see a tight divisional game again this week. Not sure I have a play here. If forced to I would probably take the points.

Vikings @ Seahawks
The Vikings head to Seattle in what’s shaping up to be a tightly contested matchup. Minnesota enters as 3.5-point favorites, riding a high-powered offense that’s averaged 31.25 points per game over the last month. Kirk Cousins and company have been moving the ball effectively, piling up 371.75 total yards per game. However, the Vikings' defense has been less than stellar, allowing 396 yards per game during this stretch—a number that could give the Seahawks some hope at home.

Seattle, meanwhile, has been grinding out games with its defense, holding opponents to 18.75 points per game over the last four contests. Offensively, though, they’ve struggled to find consistency, averaging just 21.25 points and 290.25 total yards. The Seahawks’ red zone efficiency, sitting at 52.8%, doesn’t inspire much confidence, especially against a Vikings team converting at nearly 59%. Geno Smith will need to elevate his play to keep pace with Minnesota’s explosive attack, particularly if Seattle's ground game continues to sputter, averaging under 3.8 yards per carry in this span.

The over/under is set at a modest 43, reflecting the expectation of a defensive battle. However, the Vikings' defensive vulnerabilities could open the door for Seattle to exceed recent offensive trends, especially at home where they’ve historically been more effective. Weather in Seattle is expected to be clear, so no excuses there. This game feels like a coin flip—advantage to whichever team can capitalize in the red zone and limit turnovers.


Patriots Football

Patriots @ Buffalo
The Bills welcome the Patriots to Buffalo in what looks like a mismatch on paper. Buffalo’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging a blistering 38.75 points and 435.5 yards per game over the past month. Josh Allen continues to be a dual-threat headache for defenses, and with a red zone efficiency of nearly 69%, the Patriots’ defense will have its hands full. New England, on the other hand, has struggled mightily, allowing 29.25 points per game in this same stretch while their offense musters just 19.5 points.

For the Patriots, the numbers are grim. They’ve allowed 62% of red zone trips to end in touchdowns, and that won’t cut it against a Bills offense that seems to live in the end zone. Buffalo’s defense has its flaws—allowing nearly 370 yards per game—but against this Patriots’ offense, it’s hard to see them breaking much of a sweat.

The spread is a massive 14 points, and it’s hard to argue with it given the trends. The Bills at home are a juggernaut, while the Patriots look like a team in disarray. With the weather expected to be clear in Orchard Park, the Patriots will need a miracle to keep this one close. If the Bills jump out early, this could turn into a rout before halftime. Safe to say, the leprechaun isn’t breaking out his four-leaf clover for the Patriots this week.


TNF
Broncos @ Chargers
The Broncos ride into this matchup as 3.5-point underdogs against the Chargers, but the numbers suggest they may have the upper hand. Over the past month, Denver has been lighting up scoreboards, averaging 34.75 points per game while allowing just 17.5, a +17.25 point differential that screams dominance. Contrast that with the Chargers, whose offense has been sputtering at just 18.5 points per game over the same span, a defense allowing 25.5 points.

Denver's recent success comes down to efficiency on both sides of the ball. They're averaging 5.1 yards per play while holding opponents to a 4.8, not to mention a defensive success rate of 58.7% in the red zone. The Chargers, meanwhile, continue to struggle in containing opponents, giving up 385.75 yards per game, including a league-worst 40% success rate on 3rd down. Unless the Chargers can rediscover their offensive rhythm, this could get lopsided fast.

The Chargers have been without key offensive linemen recently, which doesn't bode well against a Denver pass rush that's tallied 14 sacks over the last four games. With Denver’s ability to capitalize on short fields and the Chargers' penchant for stalling drives, leaning Broncos +3.5 feels like the safe call here.

SNF
Buccaneers @ Cowboys
The Buccaneers head to Dallas with momentum and a chance to showcase their dominance. Over the past month, Tampa Bay has averaged 31 points per game on 455.5 yards of offense while holding opponents to a stingy 15 points and just 276 yards. Dallas, on the other hand, has allowed 331.75 yards and 21.75 points per game, making their defense look vulnerable against Tampa's balanced attack.

Red zone efficiency could be the key here. The Buccaneers have been finishing drives at a 65.5% clip, while the Cowboys lag behind at just 47.5%. If Tampa keeps cashing in on their opportunities, it’s going to be a long night for Dallas. Offensively, Dallas is managing 27.75 points per game but has struggled to stretch the field with only 5 yards per play compared to Tampa’s more dynamic 6.1.

For Dallas to have a shot, they’ll need to find answers in the trenches, where their defense has allowed 5.8 yards per play. Tampa Bay’s ability to control both sides of the ball might be too much for the Cowboys to overcome, especially with the Bucs firing on all cylinders. This one feels like Tampa’s game to lose. Definitely on Tampa here.

MNF
Saints @ Packers
The Saints head to Green Bay as two-touchdown underdogs, and the numbers paint a steep hill to climb. New Orleans is averaging a respectable 20.5 points per game over the past month, but their 5.4 yards per play pales in comparison to Green Bay’s explosive 6.3. Add in the Saints' struggles on defense, allowing 354 yards per game, and it’s clear why the Packers are heavy favorites.

Green Bay has been dominant offensively, putting up 32.25 points per game and averaging nearly 345 yards over their last four outings. The Packers' red zone efficiency of 56.9% is a slight edge over New Orleans’ 60.0%, but the real separator is the Saints' inability to keep drives alive on third down and limit big plays defensively. Meanwhile, the Packers’ defense has held opponents to a solid 18.5 points per game on just 303.75 yards.

Unless the Saints can generate turnovers or force the Packers into long-yardage situations, it’s hard to see how they keep pace. Green Bay’s balance on both sides of the ball should keep them firmly in control, and unless a miracle falls out of the New Orleans sky, this one looks like all Packers. I don't like big spreads but the Saints have managed to keep their last three losses to a one possession game. The Packers on the other hand have managed to win three out of their last four games by double digits. Hard to see the Saints keeping this one close under the lights at Lambeau. No play for me.


GOTW
Steelers @ Ravens
The Ravens and Steelers square off in Baltimore, with the Ravens favored by six and for good reason. Over the past month, Baltimore’s offense has been humming, averaging 6.9 yards per play while putting up 383.75 yards per game. The Steelers, meanwhile, are a mixed bag—averaging 25.75 points per game but giving up just as many on defense. The key difference? Pittsburgh’s middling 5.1 yards per play offense faces a Ravens defense allowing just 269 yards per game, one of the best marks in the league.

Baltimore’s red zone efficiency of 74.1% is another standout stat, especially when compared to Pittsburgh’s 45.8%. If the Ravens get inside the 20, they’re likely cashing in, and Pittsburgh’s defense has shown little ability to prevent that. Adding to the challenge, the Steelers' offensive consistency has been suspect, especially on third downs and in critical situations, leaving their defense on the field far too long.

Unless the Steelers can create some chaos through turnovers or dominate the line of scrimmage, this game has Baltimore written all over it. The Ravens’ balanced attack and a defense that’s more than capable of limiting Pittsburgh’s weapons should make this one a comfortable cover for the home team. With one notable exception its an AFC North battle and we know how those typically go. The Steelers took a close one a month ago, however the Ravens defense has played remarkedly better since then. I am not sure the Steelers offense has. I wouldn't lay the 6 here personally. But I see why the spread is where it is.

Original





Model 1





Model 2

 

[The Picker]

Shamlock of Week 16

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 5-2​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!

What did I tell ya, lads? Them Pirates of the Bay of Tampa set sail for the City of Angels, and sure enough, they plundered their way to glory! Not a bleedin’ lightning storm could stop their pillage—just as promised.The booty’s been claimed, the ticket’s cashed, and the pot o’ gold’s lookin’ that bit shinier today. Fair play to the Pirates—proper scallywags, the lot of ’em! Sláinte to us, lads, and onto the next haul!

Week 16 pick lads! Them Texas Boys from Houston are headin’ out on a cattle drive to that City in Kansas, where they’ll look to make Swift work of them arrows. Sure, it won’t be an easy trail, and they may have to push a bit harder without findin’ complete success, but I reckon they’ll do just enough to earn themselves a hard day’s pay.

Texans +3.5

Let’s ride, lads, and see the coin roll in! Sláinte!

 

[The Picker]

Week 16 Results

Well, a winning week is always good. Would have been nice for Tampa to show up on Sunday night to give us 10 wins. But it was not in the cards. And holy fuck these snowflakes are killing me. I feel like I'm seeing stars, mofo's trying to give us fucking seizures. Any way 9 wins is good but makes the regular season goal of 55% that much harder to attain. Also trying to figure out what to do next week if teams start sitting there starters. My initial instinct is to make them no plays or push's. Open to feedback on this. In a perfect world the Chiefs lose to Pittsburgh and Buffalo wins forcing both teams to play for HFA in week 17. But too many scenarios to figure out which teams that will have clinched going into week 18 will jockey for seeding vs getting healthy. Deal with that next week as it comes I guess.

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Original


Model 1


Model 2

 

[The Picker]

Week 17 Predictions

Down to the nitty gritty here with two weeks left. Model 1 needing 23 wins and Model 2 needing 22 wins to reach the 55% still an attainable goal which is exciting.

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Christmas Day Football
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
Kansas City travels to Pittsburgh to square off against the Steelers, with a lot on the line for both squads. The Chiefs enter as 3-point road favorites, reflecting what should be a close game. Kansas City’s defense, ranked third in points allowed this season (18.5 PPG), has been a major strength, but their run defense has been less reliable lately, giving up 108.3 yards per game over the last month. With Chris Jones questionable due to a calf injury, this could spell trouble against a Steelers rushing attack that has averaged 100 yards per game over the past month, spearheaded by Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, if you remove the Philly game they are averaging 115.6.

On the flip side, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense have not looked quite as explosive, managing just 21.5 points per game over the past four weeks—well below their season average. Their red zone offense has struggled, converting only 51.7% of trips into touchdowns over the same span. That’s not ideal against a Steelers defense that, while giving up yardage (373.5 yards per game over the last month), stiffens up in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on only 48% of opponent trips.

The Steelers’ offense, bolstered by the return of George Pickens, has quietly been more productive, scoring 25.3 points per game over the past four weeks, thanks in part to an improved passing game. However, the Steelers O-Line will need to keep a clean pocket to avoid disaster against a Chiefs defense that ranks second in the league in pressures (43.8%) and third in the league in blitz percentage (35.7%). Add in a home-field advantage and potential weather considerations—temps in the low 30s with a chance of snow—and this one feels like a grind-it-out affair. The leprechaun’s ER rankings put the Chiefs ahead, but with Jones’ status up in the air and the Steelers surging, I’d lean Steelers to cover and maybe even squeak out the over.

Baltimore @ Houston
The Ravens, fresh off a dominant stretch and averaging 29.9 points per game this season, host the Texans in a Christmas Day matchup. Baltimore’s offense is thriving, racking up 418 yards per game, including an impressive 5.7 yards per carry on the ground. Derrick Henry has been a force since joining the Ravens, helping them control games and find the end zone with ease. Pair that with a red zone success rate of 72.9% over the past month, and this offense looks primed to take advantage of a Texans defense allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt and struggling in the red zone (64.1% TD rate).

For Houston, the loss of wide receiver Tank Dell to a season-ending knee injury is a huge blow to their offense, which has managed 22.3 points per game this season. CJ Stroud has been steady but will need to find answers against a Ravens defense that excels at creating pressure and has limited opponents to 5.3 yards per play over the last month. The Texans’ rushing game, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, doesn’t seem poised to lighten Stroud’s load against Baltimore’s top-tier defensive front.

The Ravens’ dominance on both sides of the ball over the past several weeks makes the -6 spread feel manageable. With Baltimore firing on all cylinders and Houston’s struggles to match up in key areas, this one looks like a comfortable Ravens win. As for the total, 47 feels about right-though the over might be worth a peek if the Texans can manage maintain their current average.
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TNF
Seattle @ Chicago
The Seahawks head to Soldier Field for a late-season matchup against the struggling Bears. Over the past month, Seattle has averaged 23.25 points per game on 5.4 yards per play, showing consistency in moving the ball, but struggling a bit in converting opportunities. With a red zone efficiency of 55.3% during this stretch, the Seahawks are not making the most of their scoring chances. On the other side, Chicago's defense has been a disaster, giving up 31.25 points per game on 5.9 yards per play. That’s about as lopsided as it gets.

Chicago’s offense hasn’t fared much better, averaging a mere 15.5 points per game over the past month while producing just 4.6 yards per play. Their red zone efficiency of 47.5% is among the worst in the league, and their turnover woes continue with a season-long -8 differential. Seattle’s defense, though not elite, has been opportunistic enough to capitalize on these mistakes, which could lead to some short fields for Geno Smith and company.

The Bears’ inability to stop anyone lately, coupled with an offense that can’t keep pace, makes Seattle a safe bet to cover the -3.5 spread. With Chicago’s defense bleeding points, the over at 43.5 also feels very much in play, especially if the Seahawks’ offense finds its groove early. Soldier Field might be cold, but this one could heat up quickly on the scoreboard.

Head Scratchers
The Saints and Raiders game seems to be the only real head scratcher this week. However, given all the Saints injuries and the picker obviously not aware of them, makes this an understandable head scratcher.

Patriots Football
The Chargers head to Foxborough to face a Patriots team still trying to find its footing. Over the past month, Los Angeles has been efficient on offense, averaging 21.25 points per game while generating 5.3 yards per play. Their red zone efficiency of 57.5% gives them an edge, especially against a Patriots defense that has been leaking touchdowns, allowing scores on 62.7% of red zone trips. While the Chargers’ defense hasn’t been airtight, giving up 377.25 yards per game over the last four weeks, they’ve done just enough to stay competitive.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have struggled mightily. Over the past month, their offense has averaged just 19.25 points per game while managing 4.9 yards per play, one of the lowest outputs in the league. Their defense hasn’t been much better, surrendering 28.25 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. With a turnover differential of -6 over the season and a red zone efficiency of only 47.7% offensively, it’s no surprise New England has had trouble closing out games.

As for Shamlock’s ER rankings, our friendly Irishman isn’t too impressed with either squad but gives the nod to the Chargers. The -4.5 spread seems likely with Los Angeles' ability to move the ball and New England’s defensive struggles. The over/under at 42.5 could go either way, but with two defenses prone to giving up yards and scores, leaning slightly toward the over seems like a solid bet. I'm honestly a bit surprised the picker is on NE this week. I don't like NE here. I can't think of one time where this team "showed up" (if you will) two weeks in a row.

SNF
Atlanta @ Washington
The Falcons head to D.C. to take on the Commanders in a game where Washington enters as 4-point favorites. Over the past month, Atlanta’s offense has been steady but unspectacular, averaging 20.75 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. Three of those games were with Cousins and then last week against the inept Giants they were gifted 17 points. Hard to get a real feel for Penix after such a lopsided game. But 18 of 27 for 202 and I won't include that pick as that should of been a TD. Their defense, however, has been their saving grace, allowing just 18.75 points per game—the best mark in this matchup. The Falcons' red zone efficiency on offense sits at a lackluster 48.9%, which could spell trouble against a Commanders defense that hasn’t exactly been a brick wall but has shown flashes of resilience.

On the flip side, Washington has been putting up fireworks offensively, averaging 31 points per game over the past four weeks on 5.8 yards per play. Jayden Daniels has been steady, and the Commanders are converting red zone trips into touchdowns at a 61.3% clip, which matches up well against a Falcons defense allowing a 62.2% red zone success rate. However, Washington’s defense remains a liability, giving up 26.25 points per game and struggling to contain big plays.

The one lingering over this battle of rookie QBs is the turnovers from last week. Washington turning it over five times while Atlanta forced three of their own. The spread seems doable, though Atlanta’s stingy defense could keep things close. As for the total, the over at 47.5 looks enticing given Washington’s scoring pace and defensive struggles. This one could turn into a sneaky shootout if Atlanta’s offense finds a groove.


MNF
Detroit @ San Francisco
The Lions head to Levi’s Stadium as 3.5-point favorites in what promises to be a marquee matchup of high-powered offense against a stout defense. Detroit’s offense has been a juggernaut, averaging 33.25 points per game over the last month while racking up a league-best 448 yards per game. Their red zone efficiency of 67.7% further highlights their ability to finish drives. However, the Lions’ defense reeling from injuries has been leaky, allowing 29 points per game and 5.7 yards per play, which could give San Francisco some opportunities to keep pace.

The 49ers, meanwhile, have relied on their defense to stay competitive, giving up just 17.75 points per game over the past four weeks while holding opponents to a mere 5.1 yards per play. On offense, they’ve been more pedestrian, managing 17.75 points per game, though they’ve shown flashes of explosiveness. San Francisco’s red zone struggles (51.8% efficiency) may be a key factor if they can’t capitalize on scoring opportunities against a Lions defense that has allowed opponents to score touchdowns on 50% of red zone trips.

The -3.5 spread feels tight, given Detroit’s defensive woes and San Francisco’s ability to slow the pace. The over/under of 50.5 is no slouch, but with Detroit’s offensive firepower and defensive lapses, it’s hard to imagine this game not turning into a shootout. If you’re betting, grab your popcorn and consider the over—it could get wild in the Bay.

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[The Picker]

Shamlock of Week 17

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 5-3​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Week 14: Mia/NYJ Over 45 Cheers
Week 15: Tampa +3 Cheers
Week 16: Houston +3.5 Bullshit!
Olive Branches: 0-1 Shitstains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!


Shite lads, what can I say? Them Texas Boys from Houston gave it a go, but the trail to Cowtown proved rougher than I’d reckoned. Sure, they pushed, but not quite hard enough to earn their day’s pay. And those feckin’ Swifties? Well, they sang their tune and fired their arrows true this time.

Losses like this sting, no doubt, but it’s all part o’ the game, isn’t it? Dust yourself off, refill the pint, and we’ll be back at it next week. No gold in the pot this time, but sure, the chase is what makes it sweet. Sláinte, lads—we’ll get ‘em next time!

Ah, lads, Week 17’s showdown between the Cattle Ranchers from Dallas and the Birds from Philly is lookin’ like a proper feast of football. These two’ll be dancin’ in the end zone like a fat lad with a cheesesteak from Gino’s—pure joy and no shame!

The points? They’ll be flyin’, no doubt about it. Buckle up, grab a pint, and let’s watch the fireworks. Sláinte!


Dallas @ Philly Over 41.5