As some of you know I have had a score predicting system for the NFL that I created back in 2012 or 2013. During some seasons I have posted it on patsfans, typically in the old gambling thread. It has always been fun to track how it performed during the several years that I actually managed to keep up with it weekly, it has won both against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) in each of those seasons with the exception of last year. I am creating a thread here on our new internet home.
Each week I will post its predictions by Tuesday NLT Wednesday afternoon and the previous weeks results. Sometimes, I may add content in regard to the predictions that I find most interesting or even shocking at times.
For those of you that have followed this in the past, you will see some minor aesthetic changes, such as blanking out the predicted "losing" team point differential and using brighter fonts. But, because, I have spent so much time on the background functions that make this churn with power query to automate the data inputs eliminating any potential errors from a manual process (which were many over the years) and eliminating what used to be an hour or better process into about 30 seconds, I felt the need to tell you this. It helps my sanity (ego)!
For the virgins! Read the shit below.
There are several columns, most I think are self-explanatory but just in case:
Predicted Score: Is the adjusted score to account for HFA based on the teams current four game average head-to-head.
Predicted Spread: Is the difference +/- for each team based on predicted score head-to-head. Hence my statement above, I removed the "losing" teams spread to declutter the visual.
Live Spread: Is based on the line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Spread Dif: Is the difference between the live line and the predicted spread used in this instance to show the line advantage the picker believes is in that team's favor.
O/U Line: Is based on the over/under line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Predicted Points: Is the combined adjusted score points in the predicted score column.
O/U DIF: Is the difference between the live over/under line and the predicted Points used in this instance to show the over/under line advantage the picker believes is in that directions favor.
Now with all that out of the way a few small house keeping things:
1. You probably noticed I said based on the last four games played. Well of course there have only been 2 games played by each team so far. I do this every year I get antsy and want to use it. So, I throw it together to early, but its pre-season for the picker. I never include the weeks prior to week 5 in the season record. So, feel free to disregard predictions prior to week 5.
2. If you do use this (and this goes for any week, but especially weeks prior to week 5) as a tool for any degeneracy, do not come back here whining and crying about the results. By that I mean being angry, upset because you followed this blindly etc... remember it doesn't account for a monsoon in Miami, injuries sustained during the game etc. Don't be a tool and be smart, use it as a tool. With that said constructive criticism, enthusiasm and ass kissing the creator for your triumphant victories (should they so happen) is always welcomed.
3. I always enjoy other people's thoughts and insights on how they use the predictor and general overall conversation about its predictions.
I am too lazy and its too early to give any insights on its predictions, only two games have been played. But fuck it lets roll! Remember don't be a fucking sally about it or I will find a way to make your beeper explode!
Each week I will post its predictions by Tuesday NLT Wednesday afternoon and the previous weeks results. Sometimes, I may add content in regard to the predictions that I find most interesting or even shocking at times.
For those of you that have followed this in the past, you will see some minor aesthetic changes, such as blanking out the predicted "losing" team point differential and using brighter fonts. But, because, I have spent so much time on the background functions that make this churn with power query to automate the data inputs eliminating any potential errors from a manual process (which were many over the years) and eliminating what used to be an hour or better process into about 30 seconds, I felt the need to tell you this. It helps my sanity (ego)!
For the virgins! Read the shit below.
There are several columns, most I think are self-explanatory but just in case:
Predicted Score: Is the adjusted score to account for HFA based on the teams current four game average head-to-head.
Predicted Spread: Is the difference +/- for each team based on predicted score head-to-head. Hence my statement above, I removed the "losing" teams spread to declutter the visual.
Live Spread: Is based on the line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Spread Dif: Is the difference between the live line and the predicted spread used in this instance to show the line advantage the picker believes is in that team's favor.
O/U Line: Is based on the over/under line at the time of me completing the weekly spreadsheet.
Predicted Points: Is the combined adjusted score points in the predicted score column.
O/U DIF: Is the difference between the live over/under line and the predicted Points used in this instance to show the over/under line advantage the picker believes is in that directions favor.
Now with all that out of the way a few small house keeping things:
1. You probably noticed I said based on the last four games played. Well of course there have only been 2 games played by each team so far. I do this every year I get antsy and want to use it. So, I throw it together to early, but its pre-season for the picker. I never include the weeks prior to week 5 in the season record. So, feel free to disregard predictions prior to week 5.
2. If you do use this (and this goes for any week, but especially weeks prior to week 5) as a tool for any degeneracy, do not come back here whining and crying about the results. By that I mean being angry, upset because you followed this blindly etc... remember it doesn't account for a monsoon in Miami, injuries sustained during the game etc. Don't be a tool and be smart, use it as a tool. With that said constructive criticism, enthusiasm and ass kissing the creator for your triumphant victories (should they so happen) is always welcomed.
3. I always enjoy other people's thoughts and insights on how they use the predictor and general overall conversation about its predictions.
I am too lazy and its too early to give any insights on its predictions, only two games have been played. But fuck it lets roll! Remember don't be a fucking sally about it or I will find a way to make your beeper explode!
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