OVERVIEW
After talking to a diverse range of sources, including staff and insiders within the North Carolina Football program, as well as experts from the NCAA and NFL landscapes, I have gained an interesting perspective on Drake Maye’s trajectory at UNC. In this article, you will discover three critical insights:
(1) The inevitable disaster of his 2023 season
(2) A new report on his NIL and transfer opportunities before the 2023 season
(3) The league's recognition of these developments and their positive outlook on his evaluation
In any other prominent football program, this narrative would dominate headlines and be a focal point of media discussions. Yet, due to the relatively modest scale of North Carolina's football program, this story has not yet received the widespread attention one might expect. The situation has afforded me the distinct opportunity to provide a fresh perspective on an overlooked narrative in the college football world.
SITUATIONAL CONTEXT
It is apparent that Maye has been subjected to excessive and unnecessary criticism by media pundits across the internet. These individuals intently focus on his statistical decline from 2022 to 2023, which contrasts the notable advancements of other quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr., and Bo Nix—all of whom saw progression this past season.
However, the context in which Maye played often goes completely unnoticed. The 2023 environment at North Carolina was exceptionally challenging for a developing quarterback, which determined Maye's fate before taking a single snap.
3 IMPORTANT FACTS
(1) In 2023, after having great success in a well-built system under Phil Longo, the Tar Heels turned to a new offensive coordinator—Chip Lindsey—who implemented a completely new scheme. Anyone who has been around the game of football knows that learning an entirely new system takes time for a quarterback—no matter how smart or talented they may be. Maye had to figure out his own responsibilities while helping his teammates learn theirs too.
(2) The other top quarterbacks in the draft were all surrounded by elite playmakers. The same cannot be said for Maye. His arsenal of weapons was already questionable, and due to eligibility rules, his top target—Devontez Walker—missed a large portion of the season. It’s even more amazing that Walker was an under-recruited transfer from Kent State. When Walker finally returned to action, the Tar Heels lost their other top option—Kobe Paysour—to a broken foot. Additionally, North Carolina rostered two promising tight ends—Bryson Nesbitt and John Copenhaver—but both played through significant injuries that made it difficult for them to truly compete. The lack of weapons in Chapel Hill was astonishing, especially when compared to other top quarterbacks in the draft.
(3) North Carolina's pass-catchers were dropping the football at a rate of 8.2%—higher than for any other top quarterback prospect in the draft, or any full-time starting quarterback in the NFL. For context, USC’s drop rate for Caleb Williams was 3.9%. Based on Maye's throwing volume, the 8.2% drop rate is equivalent to 35 additional catches, a number that would have moved his 2023 completion percentage from 63.3% to 71.5%.
The fundamental infrastructure of the 2023 North Carolina Football team was lacking in several key areas. Their offensive line could not buy time, their weapons could not create separation, and their defense could not provide help. It was a disaster waiting to happen for any quarterback under center.
LOYALTY IN THE FACE OF A BIG OPPORTUNITY
Here’s where things get interesting. Surely, Maye and his circle could anticipate all of this coming into 2023. The team was set up for failure, and if Maye returned, he would bear that responsibility.
When a player is not in the transfer portal, NCAA teams are prohibited from making direct communication. North Carolina head coach, Mack Brown, reported that schools allegedly used NIL opportunities to incentivize Maye to transfer. The widespread report suggests that Maye received two offers of around $5 million to transfer programs. However, to this day, nobody has reported any specifics beyond that. After speaking with various sources, I am told that multiple programs were desperate for the North Carolina quarterback. Four top ten programs were all involved, making it clear that money would not be an issue. These programs were offering upwards of $7 million, with one source confident that a specific program was willing to pay nearly $10 million.
Don't forget as a highly recruited high school quarterback, Maye and his camp would have already had relationships with all of these top programs.
Maye must have been aware of the bad situation awaiting him at North Carolina, and at the same time, he had strong interest from the biggest programs in the nation—all equipped to help him build on an amazing 2022 campaign and make a legitimate push for the National Championship, the Heisman trophy, and the #1 overall pick.
With all of this on the table, most people would enter the transfer portal and prioritize their future, but Drake is not most people. Despite anticipating the nature of his surroundings at North Carolina for 2023, Maye was more interested in the commitment he made to his teammates, coaches, and community—completely ignoring these potentially career-altering transfer opportunities. In various interviews, Maye has publicly denied these rumors—as would be expected from someone who carries himself the way he does. It was a mature decision that eliminated any media speculation and allowed these suitors to avoid significant turmoil and long-term implications in the NCAA landscape—since Maye was never officially in the transfer portal.
It’s hard not to admire a 21-year-old kid prioritizing loyalty over a multi-million dollar opportunity that would have likely changed the narrative on his 2023 season. To be clear, we have no information that suggests any of these programs reached out to Maye directly. All contact that we have been made aware of was done through third party intermediaries.
Note: There are numerous reports that confirm Maye received NIL money from North Carolina for the 2023 season, but these figures are well below the $7-10 million that he could have gotten in a broader, organized, transfer process.